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Spring 2025 Banter


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On 4/14/2025 at 7:39 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Since 4/13 18z, Caribou picked up 2.6" of snow. The next event  of the two systems will bring very little snow and mainly rain/mixed precipitation. In contrast, the 4/13 18z GFS had shown the following amounts for snowfall during the period during which 2.6" fell: 10:1 ratio: 10.9"; Kuchera: 8.4"; and Snow Depth Change: 3.1".

The second system brought a trace of snow to Caribou. The total snowfall for the two systems was 2.6".

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Periodic AI update:

Through April 12th:

image.png.311a2cae0270b155d69fe94f21b86ea5.png

Through April 19th (preliminary):

image.png.8bd3341af9cc8a5aeb490ae31c7fea95.png

The one area where the AI idea appears to be at the highest risk of being off is April precipitation. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the April mean temperature should finish within 1° of the AI estimate. With today's high temperature, the AI estimate for the monthly high temperature is very close to what has occurred.

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On 4/18/2025 at 11:45 AM, Dark Star said:

Too late in case Mount Spur erupts to cool things down for this coming winter?

Depends on the plume type. If it's water vapor, we might have additional warming. If it's SO2, then cooling. However, the plume type might not mean much if the eruption is weak. Also, the effects aren't definitive either. 

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