CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 With a 10 hatch in Illinois, I think today is thread worthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Coulda swore this was just a marginal yesterday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Yeah looks like things escalated quickly for my area, we will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: Coulda swore this was just a marginal yesterday? Yes, however HRRR was bullish off the bat which raised my eyebrows. 3KM NAM and FV3 less so but had the same general idea. Now nearly all CAMs and the RAP have significantly uptrended with moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 nice to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Of course, now the HRRR has dramatically backed off its ominous runs from just a few hours ago. Seems the dewpoints will verify on the lower end after all. Still might be a photogenic mini-supercell or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Regardless of whatever else happens, had my first thunder of the year a few minutes ago and it was a doozy. Flash momentarily stung my eyes even though I had my back turned to the windows, followed by a boom that made my apartment building vibrate. Wasn't even really expecting anything more than cold rain at home in the morning with temps in the 30s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 RAP/HRRR crashed back down to earth hard starting around 11Z this morning. Not sure if the dust had anything to do with it but it's also gonna ruin the photogenic potential of any convection this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: RAP/HRRR crashed back down to earth hard starting around 11Z this morning. Not sure if the dust had anything to do with it but it's also gonna ruin the photogenic potential of any convection this afternoon. I doubt it If anything, dust can enhance convection via cloud seeding (as we saw this past weekend). That said, I think there was suspicion all along that the RAP/HRRR were overzealous with the moisture return (and thus the ceiling). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Author Share Posted March 19 Actually a decent patch of clearing (including [lack of] dust) seems to be working its way into WC IL at the moment. Wouldn't be the morning of a chase day without a few headscratchers from the atmosphere, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Warm front WF is pretty obvious in northern Illinois. Less discernable, but subtle, an outflow boundary OFB has sagged south from there. Intersection of that OFB with dry-line like feature (sfc trough) out of Missouri should trigger discrete supercells in central Illionois this afternoon. WF could also recharge / destabilize again late. Plenty of cross boundary flow at the mid-levels favors discrete mode. Moisture is a little bit last minute, but cool mid-levels will promote enough instability. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, Powerball said: I doubt it If anything, dust can enhance convection via cloud seeding (as we saw this past weekend). That said, I think there was suspicion all along that the RAP/HRRR were overzealous with the moisture return (and thus the ceiling). Dust aloft can also inhibit instability by warming temperatures locally in the dust layer [absorbed solar radiation] and cooling temperatures at the surface [reduced solar radiation], similar to the conditions of the Dust Bowl or the Saharan Air Layer in the Tropical Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: Dust aloft can also inhibit instability by warming temperatures locally in the dust layer [absorbed solar radiation] and cooling temperatures at the surface [reduced solar radiation], similar to the conditions of the Dust Bowl or the Saharan Air Layer in the Tropical Atlantic. Well of course, for enhancement, the overall background environment still has to be favorable for convective development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Peoria under a tornado warning. There was a confirmed SW of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: Peoria under a tornado warning. There was a confirmed SW of there. Seems as if that confirmed one may not have been a reality. Numerous chasers in the area reported nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Peoria under a tornado warning. There was a confirmed SW of there. Confirmed now. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Lincoln IL 251 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 ILC057-143-179-203-192015- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250319T2015Z/ Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Peoria- 251 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR WEST CENTRAL WOODFORD...EAST CENTRAL FULTON...NORTHERN TAZEWELL AND CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTIES... At 250 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Glasford, or 8 miles west of Pekin, moving northeast at 65 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Peoria, Bellevue, Mapleton, Marquette Heights, Bartonville, Peoria International Airport, Creve Coeur, and Pekin around 255 PM CDT. West Peoria and East Peoria around 300 PM CDT. Germantown Hills around 305 PM CDT. Spring Bay and Washington around 310 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Norwood, Mossville, Kickapoo, North Pekin, Banner, Smithville, Alta, Peoria Heights, Powerton, and Bay View Gardens. This includes the following highways... Interstate 155 between mile markers 28 and 31. Interstate 474 between mile markers 0 and 14. Interstate 74 between mile markers 82 and 109. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4044 8982 4053 8998 4092 8964 4082 8945 4074 8933 4061 8933 TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 225DEG 58KT 4055 8979 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 6 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: Confirmed now. Gustnado based on video. Some chasers need to realize that not every twisting dust/dirt whirl is a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 So why confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Velocity scan showing nothing on that Peoria warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Moisture is mixing out too much, temperatures getting too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Just now, King James said: So why confirm? Because not-so great chasers reported it, thus they confirmed it. Then on the other end, more reputable chasers are on socials right now saying, wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Moisture is mixing out too much, temperatures getting too warm. Yea, spreads closer to 20F now. Also, a lot of cold outflow reports, which radar backs up. (Not overly surprising given the background setup) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Because not-so great chasers reported it, thus they confirmed it. Then on the other end, more reputable chasers are on socials right now saying, wut?You don’t have to be trained to report? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 5 minutes ago, King James said: You don’t have to be trained to report? There's no foolproof way for the NWS to control who reports something and who doens't. That said, the onus should be on the NWS to discern the legitimacy of a report before confirming it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 8 minutes ago, King James said: You don’t have to be trained to report? 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: There's no foolproof way for the NWS to enforce who reports something and who doens't. That said, the onus should be on the NWS to discern the legitimacy of a report before confirming it. Unfortunately. Even when Spotter Network was a way of reporting to the NWS (It's not anymore, no integration), it was a shit-show. Remember back to a year to two ago, when a massive wedge was reported to be ongoing in Arkansas via SN. Radar was not supportive, but LZK still put out a warning and confirmed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 There's no foolproof way for the NWS to control who reports something and who doens't. That said, the onus should be on the NWS to discern the legitimacy of a report before confirming it.Kind of where I’m coming from. A flawed system if true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Unfortunately. Even when Spotter Network was a way of reporting to the NWS (It's not anymore, no integration), it was a shit-show. Remember back to a year to two ago, when a massive wedge was reported to be ongoing in Arkansas via SN. Radar was not supportive, but LZK still put out a warning an confirmed it. There's also the whole Skywarn Training initiative where once you actually attend a full session in-person to learn all the technical ins & outs with storm reporting, they'd give you a "private" number & email number and implore you not to share it with anyone. But of course, humans being humans, people share it any way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 this might be the next tornado warning at Delevan, Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 TDS near Delavan...unwarned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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