CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 12:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:49 PM 16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: this looks fun Flood Watch National Weather Service Memphis TN 257 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 .Generational rainfall amounts will fall across the Mid-South Wednesday to Saturday, resulting in significant river, areal, and flash flooding. Areas along and north of I-40 will receive upwards of 10 inches of rain. Why does it seem like that area into Kentucky has had massive flooding last few years? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:52 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Why does it seem like that area into Kentucky has had massive flooding last few years? It's been pretty ugly there. This week could end up ugly too...this could be a bigger story than the severe weather potential really. but I guess when you're pooling 60's dews and rich theta-e air into fronts which seem to stall there for multiple days that sets up a terrible recipe. Was it last there they had a stationary front there for like 3-4 days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:53 PM 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Tomorrow looks like toaster bath weather. MAV/MET for BOS is 30's. NBM is a little more kind hate to burst any bubbles of grandeur around here but it's still winter That may rub the spring/warm enthusiasm's the wrong way but tough shit. The natural Earth doesn't care about calendars or perceptions, or personal wants and needs and biases thereof... The pattern orientation and genera, along with 30s this and that, ... freezing at night. No, we are not escaped yet. I'd almost argue that if you could if you were to remove attribution, we would be snowing still - but since we cannot do that ... this is what a winter that won't end looks like, when it is happening in CC (there! that should piss off the most possible people's sensitivities by using a single post hahaha) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 12:58 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:58 PM That sig -NAO/-AO....oof.. If she's gonna go negative this time of year, go bigly - send the easterly flow to Virginia/North Carolina, and we can be okay... That backdoor CAN turn to a surface ridge to our southeast... Better weather relative to norms - is north/east in situation like this. "Best in Maine".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 12:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:59 PM 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Out of the worst month of year Morch and into spring now. It’s all behind us and the warmth and sun and dews will be be here before we know it. You can see the light at the end of tunnel. Closing in April predominately blows dead rats…many times March is better. I swear, sometimes I wonder where the heck you grew up ? I know you say stuff to just get a rise, but your takes are mostly just wrong more often than not. Enjoy the next two weeks of garbage…we’ll see where we go after that? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 12:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 12:59 PM 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: hate to burst any bubbles of grandeur around here but it's still winter That may rub the spring/warm enthusiasm's the wrong way but tough shit. The natural Earth doesn't care about calendars or perceptions, or personal wants and needs and biases thereof... The pattern orientation and genera, along with 30s this and that, ... freezing at night. No, we are not escaped yet. I'd almost argue that if you could if you were to remove attribution, we would be snowing still - but since we cannot do that ... this is what a winter that won't end looks like, when it is happening in CC (there! that should piss off the most possible people's sensitivities by using a single post hahaha) At least we shouldn't have issues warm sectoring for Thursday (well except up north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM Today blows..literally. In Salem ma "the point" ghetto too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 01:18 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:18 PM I'm optimistic up here - I think this window can really suck for central Jersey south, relative to norms... MJO phase 8 isn't a big BN signal this time of year - slight bias, but largely neutral in eastern NE... We need the operationals to digest the latest teleconnection forecasts before it will send the boundary of shit to our south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:32 PM 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At least we shouldn't have issues warm sectoring for Thursday (well except up north) what? New England? warm sectoring in the spring, during a winter stealing base-line pattern lean no less? we'll have issues. If we don't, it's like a 1::100 return rate, relative to all. I suppose that's technically a non-zero chance, but I'd be leery of the least excuse imaginable to not succeed scenario - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:24 PM 3 hours ago, 512high said: .38" overnight/ 41F/breezy No wonder why I didn’t wake up. It barely rained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 PM Actually there might be a few small areas of enhanced tornado potential tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if one of two things happen 1) The geographical area of the 10% hatched TOR is reduced and confined to a smaller area. 2) the area remains the same but 15% hatched is added in these areas. This is much more fun to track versus 30's/40's, clouds and drizzle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually there might be a few small areas of enhanced tornado potential tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if one of two things happen 1) The geographical area of the 10% hatched TOR is reduced and confined to a smaller area. 2) the area remains the same but 15% hatched is added in these areas. This is much more fun to track versus 30's/40's, clouds and drizzle. Like Anthony down in NYC…you need to move. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM I don't think the HRRR is too far off with probably a wintry mix moving across the region during the evening. That's a heck of a surge of WAA. Have to see how quickly the llvl cold scoots out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:51 PM Just now, WinterWolf said: Like Anthony down in NYC…you need to move. ehhh not really...can enjoy weather from afar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 PM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: ehhh not really...can enjoy weather from afar It ain’t even close to being the same. You need to be in Oklahoma, with an F5 wedge tornado that’s a mile wide, bearing down on you Wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:56 PM 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It ain’t even close to being the same. You need to be in Oklahoma, with an F5 wedge tornado that’s a mile wide, bearing down on you Wiz. As long as it was in an open field with nobody's homes/businesses in the path would be good with that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted yesterday at 03:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:36 PM 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: I'm optimistic up here - I think this window can really suck for central Jersey south, relative to norms... MJO phase 8 isn't a big BN signal this time of year - slight bias, but largely neutral in eastern NE... We need the operationals to digest the latest teleconnection forecasts before it will send the boundary of shit to our south... Looks optimistic for sure: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:59 PM 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Out of the worst month of year Morch and into spring now. It’s all behind us and the warmth and sun and dews will be be here before we know it. You can see the light at the end of tunnel. Closing in yep, only 6 weeks to go, can hardly wait ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted yesterday at 04:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:09 PM 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: Actually there might be a few small areas of enhanced tornado potential tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if one of two things happen 1) The geographical area of the 10% hatched TOR is reduced and confined to a smaller area. 2) the area remains the same but 15% hatched is added in these areas. This is much more fun to track versus 30's/40's, clouds and drizzle. I think the flooding will be the bigger issue by Sunday. Looks like a bad situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:19 PM 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think the flooding will be the bigger issue by Sunday. Looks like a bad situation. Yeah this is looking ugly within western Kentucky. I would not be surprised if there were spots that saw 15-20" of rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:33 PM No one’s gonna warm sector this weekend. The back door getting sent to the mid Atlantic. Trick is well north/east of the boundary it should be decent weather for early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:39 PM 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No one’s gonna warm sector this weekend. The back door getting sent to the mid Atlantic. Trick is well north/east of the boundary it should be decent weather for early April. You’re all over the map there Pope a wheelie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks optimistic for sure: Optimistic for cold and dry so he can Ride some Pope a wheelies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted yesterday at 04:41 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:41 PM 41 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: yep, only 6 weeks to go, can hardly wait ! Yup, and That’s if we’re fortunate… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 04:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:52 PM 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re all over the map there Pope a wheelie. He's right in principle tho. If/when these NAOs become excessively strong, boundaries/cyclone activity may get suppressed so far S that regions of New England may observe improving conditions from the N-NE. You might recall the winter 2010 mega -NAO, and the big historic snows in DC-PHL region? It was warmer than normal in Maine and with sun in Caribou much of the time. That was a west limbed NAO on steroids ... Granted this may not be that, but in principle, our best hope for recuperating sanity is to A, improve from the N, or B ... have the -NAO be wrong in the first place. Possible because no one's considering that the NAO is the worst performing index per modeling of all realms known to nature... over 5 days away might be asking a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM 54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: He's right in principle tho. If/when these NAOs become excessively strong, boundaries/cyclone activity may get suppressed so far S that regions of New England may observe improving conditions from the N-NE. You might recall the winter 2010 mega -NAO, and the big historic snows in DC-PHL region? It was warmer than normal in Maine and with sun in Caribou much of the time. That was a west limbed NAO on steroids ... Granted this may not be that, but in principle, our best hope for recuperating sanity is to A, improve from the N, or B ... have the -NAO be wrong in the first place. Possible because no one's considering that the NAO is the worst performing index per modeling of all realms known to nature... over 5 days away might be asking a lot I don't think you need an anomaly of that magnitude to produce a milder outcome in NE this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:38 PM 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Actually there might be a few small areas of enhanced tornado potential tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if one of two things happen 1) The geographical area of the 10% hatched TOR is reduced and confined to a smaller area. 2) the area remains the same but 15% hatched is added in these areas. This is much more fun to track versus 30's/40's, clouds and drizzle. A little off but not bad 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted yesterday at 06:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:53 PM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think you need an anomaly of that magnitude to produce a milder outcome in NE this time of year. probably not ... - that was just an example to describe how a fair/milder pattern can conceivably back in under extreme scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:12 PM 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Like Anthony down in NYC…you need to move. A friend of mines wife is from Kansas and has some good tornado stories, Wiz should go out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted yesterday at 07:13 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:13 PM 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I don't think the HRRR is too far off with probably a wintry mix moving across the region during the evening. That's a heck of a surge of WAA. Have to see how quickly the llvl cold scoots out. we pray!! but the HRRR is the only model showing enough precip to be worthy of anything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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