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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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well if it keeps snowing like this Box is going down in flames for tonight 

 

Tonight
A chance of rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of rain between 2am and 3am, then snow likely after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday
Snow, possibly mixed with rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet between 1pm and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Areas of fog after 2pm. High near 33. Northeast wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible
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Just now, ineedsnow said:

well if it keeps snowing like this Box is going down in flames for tonight 

 

Tonight
A chance of rain and snow before 2am, then a chance of rain between 2am and 3am, then snow likely after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Saturday
Snow, possibly mixed with rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet between 1pm and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Areas of fog after 2pm. High near 33. Northeast wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible

Obviously that was put out earlier before the colder runs were factored in.  They’ll update that soon. And if not…those are a joke anyway. 

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23z HRRR was not a fluke.  00z HRRR even more aggressive.  Looks like it is focused on Brace Mountain NY (elevation 2311 ft).  It has a 3" QPF bulls-eye there, and wicked downslope screw zone for pcpn just to its W.   Kuchera says 28.6".   Why not?  Low track and flow is right for great upslope flow this area.  Of course, we may never get verification unless a true weenie goes up there to measure, but either way, some pretty amazing totals for April seems likely this area.

EDIT: Going back several runs of the HRRR, and it is consistent w/ the Brace Mtn bulls-eye.

 

hrrr2.JPG

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27 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

23z HRRR Kuchera shows almost 27" right at the intersection of the MA/CT/NY border.  CoastalWx has to be impressed! :D  Berkshires/Catskills special?  Slide Mountain could do *really* well!
 

hrrr.JPG

lol hrrr always does that convective bs on these set ups. It has 3.7” qpf in 6 hours in that spot

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