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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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Might come out of hibernation just for tonight.

Was texting with some folks, but powerfreak posted above....there's a pretty big difference betweeen different sets of guidance on the precip shield and it makes a huge difference. NAM is kind of flaccid with rates over central areas for much of the overnight period while HRRR/RAP/RGEM just hammer Kevin's hood and especially crush ORH county.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might come out of hibernation just for tonight.

Was texting with some folks, but powerfreak posted above....there's a pretty big difference betweeen different sets of guidance on the precip shield and it makes a huge difference. NAM is kind of flaccid with rates over central areas for much of the overnight period while HRRR/RAP/RGEM just hammer Kevin's hood and especially crush ORH county.

I haven’t looked at anything… worth me looking at?

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4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I haven’t looked at anything… worth me looking at?

Marginal there...but very real chance of advisory snows. I'd still prob lean conservative (1-2" of slushy snow) but if we can go to poundtown for about 5-6 hours, then all bets are off. Lot of short term model disagreement on precip intensity and how long the good stuff lasts.

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24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might come out of hibernation just for tonight.

Was texting with some folks, but powerfreak posted above....there's a pretty big difference betweeen different sets of guidance on the precip shield and it makes a huge difference. NAM is kind of flaccid with rates over central areas for much of the overnight period while HRRR/RAP/RGEM just hammer Kevin's hood and especially crush ORH county.

Know Kevin is already asleep, but his area seems like it could be prone to a WTF in the morning at his elevation.  So marginal but it’s the time of year where you can either get nothing or wake up to plowing if dynamic cooling and rates are there.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Know Kevin is already asleep, but his area seems like it could be prone to a WTF in the morning at his elevation.  So marginal but it’s the time of year where you can either get nothing or wake up to plowing if dynamic cooling and rates are there.

Yeah kind of has the vibe. I‘M hoping an oak goes through his roof. 

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36 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Know Kevin is already asleep, but his area seems like it could be prone to a WTF in the morning at his elevation.  So marginal but it’s the time of year where you can either get nothing or wake up to plowing if dynamic cooling and rates are there.

I think 1-3” seems likely .. but it’s not out realm to double if the colder solutions happen . I just don’t buy in 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Marginal there...but very real chance of advisory snows. I'd still prob lean conservative (1-2" of slushy snow) but if we can go to poundtown for about 5-6 hours, then all bets are off. Lot of short term model disagreement on precip intensity and how long the good stuff lasts.

Appreciate it. I see now that the best is to my southwest. A slushy coating similar to this morning.

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