Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why couldn't we get this evolution 2 months ago ughhhhh. oh well hopefully its on to EML tracking soon

It's a good question ... it's endemic to winters lately, since ~ 2002 with more coherency, where compression in the mid or core winter heights times limits the middle spectrum cyclones, but interestingly ... the rare bombs have more power..   Anyway, as the seasonal onset of lessening gradient (spring) sets the flow more flaccid ... there's a window there whence we observe more late season blocking.   More energy can then get expressed at smaller scales for one, lending to these types of systems.  But also, just in general these cold meander patterns and associated storms make springs ( autumns too ) become more wildly variable between cold snaps and warm interruptions.   This year appears to be much of this going on, but super-imposing is this lingering planetary Rossby signal, the same one that kept us chilly ( relatively so...) much of the way, anyway.

When the flow is compressed, that speeds up the baser wind velocities - it's like an exchange.  As we add one or two more of those 500 mb height lines in the total gradient, the balanced geostrophic wind speeds physically increase.  Physically, the speeding up is likely proportional to some negative interference quotient that the models seem to have issues with, particularly in the extended performance.  They seem to normalize the neg out - it may be partial in why we have trouble maintaining amplitude.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a good question ... it's endemic to winters lately, since ~ 2002 with more coherency, where compression in the mid or core winter heights times limits the middle spectrum cyclones, but interestingly ... the rare bombs have more power..   Anyway, as the seasonal onset of lessening gradient (spring) sets the flow more flaccid ... there's a window there whence we observe more late season blocking.   More energy can then get expressed at smaller scales for one, lending to these types of systems.  But also, just in general these cold meander patterns and associated storms make springs ( autumns too ) become more wildly variable between cold snaps and warm interruptions.   This year appears to be much of this going on, but super-imposing is this lingering planetary Rossby signal, the same one that kept us chilly ( relatively so...) much of the way, anyway.

When the flow is compressed, that speeds up the baser wind velocities - it's like an exchange.  As we add one or two more of those 500 mb height lines in the total gradient, the balanced geostrophic wind speeds physically increase.  Physically, the speeding up is likely proportional to some negative interference quotient that the models seem to have issues with, particularly in the extended performance.  

I haven't paid much attention to this but I wonder if the recent SSW event (did it actually occur?) played a big role here. I know it's not too uncommon to get one final major SSW event between like late February and mid-March so maybe the years where that occurs and it does so to enhance block potential in our hemispheric domain...if that is what leads to these tendencies? 

But its wild how common this is or can be during April...almost like a delayed response to whatever is going on during the month of March. 

[weatherwiz]

At least there seems to be some shed of light at the end of the tunnel. If it isn't light at least we have climo in our favor. 

[CoastalWx]

Soundings aren't impressive on the HRRR. Would really like to see a good thump into the DGZ. Kind of shallow lift.

[jbenedet]

53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. Tomorrow night or Saturday morning could drop a few inches in spots, even in the lower elevations...with the exception of Connecticut (any accumulation or even snow will be the hills). But I think I could even sneak out an inch of snow early Saturday. 

This looks like complete poop on the mesos. Baroclincity ain't there. The surface players are also weak, surface high and low. Temps to our north and west are in the 40's...

I don't see the driver for a strong CCB into CNE/NNE. At all. The mid level low occludes over VA and starts spinning itself out...

I think we see scattered decaying precip shield as this moves north of the CT coast. Dynamics are absent.

 

1024 mb high in northeastern NB; 1008 mb low 100 miles SE BM. Synoptic pressure gradient on par with Zzzzzzz sensible weather....

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I haven't paid much attention to this but I wonder if the recent SSW event (did it actually occur?) played a big role here. I know it's not too uncommon to get one final major SSW event between like late February and mid-March so maybe the years where that occurs and it does so to enhance block potential in our hemispheric domain...if that is what leads to these tendencies? 

But its wild how common this is or can be during April...almost like a delayed response to whatever is going on during the month of March. 

Unclear (bold) .. to me, anyway.   I mean at a glance this ( below..) looks a little like a down-welling mass, but not convincingly as such compared to other more obvious/verified examples.  The morphology of this is kind of screwy... It really looks a little like both down-welling, and just simultaneous multi-layer warming took place.  Either way, clearly some residual thermal inversion sort of "spilled" ( right side ) of this graphical illustration ( source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ) ... pretty low,  low enough not to be a terrible correlation with blocking.   However, the AO did not respond so well (farther below).   If anything, smoothing out these camel toe migrations the mean's been rather positive.  So it's all unclear

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I haven't paid much attention to this but I wonder if the recent SSW event (did it actually occur?) played a big role here. I know it's not too uncommon to get one final major SSW event between like late February and mid-March so maybe the years where that occurs and it does so to enhance block potential in our hemispheric domain...if that is what leads to these tendencies? 

But its wild how common this is or can be during April...almost like a delayed response to whatever is going on during the month of March. 

Yes, IMO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unclear (bold) .. to me, anyway.   I mean at a glance this ( below..) looks a little like a down-welling mass, but not convincingly as such compared to other more obvious/verified examples.  The morphology of this is kind of screwy... It really looks a little like both down-welling, and just simultaneous multi-layer warming took place.  Either way, clearly some residual thermal inversion sort of "spilled" ( right side ) of this graphical illustration ( source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ) ... pretty low,  low enough not to be a terrible correlation with blocking.   However, the AO did not respond so well (farther below).   If anything, smoothing out these camel toe migrations the mean's been rather positive.  So it's all unclear

All I got out of this is that you have camel toe 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This looks like complete poop on the mesos. Baroclincity ain't there. The surface players are also weak, surface high and low. Temps to our north and west are in the 40's...

I don't see the driver for a strong CCB into CNE/NNE. At all. The mid level low occludes over VA and starts spinning itself out...

I think we see scattered decaying precip shield as this moves north of the CT coast. Dynamics are absent.

 

1024 mb high in northeastern NB; 1008 mb low 100 miles SE BM. Synoptic pressure gradient on par with Zzzzzzz sensible weather....

That is entirely possible, absolutely can't be ruled out. Guidance really is all over the place with the pieces and exactly how this evolves. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All I got out of this is that you have camel toe 

HAHA.  ...   

might have helped if i included the y axis (height)... but the top is higher in elevation ...etc.  

just saying that a,   it's not abundantly clear this was truly a down migrating warm anomaly associated to the SSWs      and b, probably a hint to that uncertainty ( if not 'no' ), the AO didn't really demonstrate a big negative phase forcing - the correlated index depression doesn't go way up and down like that... the whole behavior is whack really.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

HAHA.  ...   

might have helped if i included the y axis (height)... but the top is higher in elevation ...etc.  

just saying that a,   it's not abundantly clear this was truly a down migrating warm anomaly associated to the SSWs      and b, probably a hint to that uncertainty ( if not 'no' ), the AO didn't really demonstrate a big negative phase forcing - the correlated index depression doesn't go way up and down like that... the whole behavior is whack really.

 

I know, just being a d1ck.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think SSW have some unique subtelties in their own right....perhaps some manifest a bit differently or less/more in the AO index itself for reasons not entirely understood, but I am inclined to say this had some impact....sure, there is some ambiguity, but unlike the February bottom-up deal, this one seems to have downwelled, more or less.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed. Tomorrow night or Saturday morning could drop a few inches in spots, even in the lower elevations...with the exception of Connecticut (any accumulation or even snow will be the hills). But I think I could even sneak out an inch of snow early Saturday. 

ya valleys will be tough unless we get a good burst.. but anyone above 500 or so will whiten

[wokeupthisam]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya valleys will be tough unless we get a good burst.. but anyone above 500 or so will whiten

Would be more excited if this were late September or early October but at this time of year I just find myself thinking of that meme, "It's time to go home, April - you're drunk." 

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah looks like not much if any on the hi res .  Wet flakes for north of pike should about do it 

[Torch Tiger]

Meanwhile, another doom and gloom day out there. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Not doom and gloom, but maybe a nice day in February. It's still in the low 40's with full sun. Not horrible but nothing to bask in.  42°/27°

[ineedsnow]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah looks like not much if any on the hi res .  Wet flakes for north of pike should about do it 

have you even looked at anything today 

[weatherwiz]

Next Tuesday (particularly second half of the day) and Wednesday is going to blow. Strong CAA through the day Tuesday and windy. Wednesday will suck much worse than Tuesday though...who knows, maybe Tuesday isn't terrible temperature wise.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Not doom and gloom, but maybe a nice day in February. It's still in the low 40's with full sun. Not horrible but nothing to bask in.  42°/27°

Yeah ok with the sun, but temps meh.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

have you even looked at anything today 

He hasn’t or he’s just doing his schtick. He’ll flood this thread with pics of his deck and dodge ram tomorrow. 

[ineedsnow]

hopefully we see some of these in the Atlantic this year   obviously that model hit the bottle though

[SouthCoastMA]

45.3°, getting there. I prefer mid 50s+ in April though

[jbenedet]

GFS low 30’s 18z Saturday. Unless you have precip rates ripping good luck. Not a snowballs’s chance in hell. 
 

Those northeast winds at the surface are advecting from areas 45-50F in NB, by the way….

 

[jbenedet]

43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He hasn’t or he’s just doing his schtick. He’ll flood this thread with pics of his dick and dodge ram tomorrow. 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

hopefully we see some of these in the Atlantic this year   obviously that model hit the bottle though

Southern hemisphere screamer! That’s a pretty epic model run, I think 865 is the lowest pressure I have ever seen modeled. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Southern hemisphere screamer! That’s a pretty epic model run, I think 865 is the lowest pressure I have ever seen modeled. 

NAM 3k has gone lower I think 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

have you even looked at anything today 

It ain’t gun snow  . Here anyway 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It ain’t gun snow  . Here anyway 

the GFS gives you a good burst late tomorrow night 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

the GFS gives you a good burst late tomorrow night 

I’m talking about tonight