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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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Euro's most likely massively over amplified with that latter thing, Easter weekend. 

In fact the other operational models, including it's own ensemble mean ... altogether argue whether it can even exist.  Pattern's in the process of modulating away from the +PNA stuff by then.   we'll see..   

Fledgling warm signal after the 20th though -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro's most likely massively over amplified with that latter thing, Easter weekend. 

In fact the other operational models, including it's own ensemble mean ... altogether argue whether it can even exist.  Pattern's in the process of modulating away from the +PNA stuff by then.   we'll see..   

Fledgling warm signal after the 20th though -

There is a signal on the EPS for Saturday, but looks like it would move out for Sunday.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a signal on the EPS for Saturday, but looks like it would move out for Sunday.

yeah...that's likely to change imho.   Not intending to make a challenge with that, just sayn'

there are larger hemisphere changes going on by then so we'll see.  Namely, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs all send the WPO block across the N Pac and end up with a low amplitude -EPO, which at this time of year, tends to create flat troughs in Great Basin longitude...transmitting a ridge over the eastern mid latitude continent.   Already seeing that manifest in the long range operational versions, and the spatial synoptics of the ens also hinting. 

It's probably a race... but the Euro operational signal is massively asynchronous with all that... and besides,  I've yet to see amplitude not fail to diminish or devolve into something more benign, when moving eye candy in that range into the mid and eventual wheelhouses.   

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This could be pretty intriguing, especially considering a pretty decent dynamic cooling signal. GFS is more robust but this is something to watch. The southern Greens though continue to look like they are going to get smoked, especially with the upslope.

tonight we might pull off a inch or so maybe 2 in spots if were lucky.. I think tomorrow night has better potential if we can get some of that heavier precip

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

tonight we might pull off a inch or so maybe 2 in spots if were lucky.. I think tomorrow night has better potential if we can get some of that heavier precip

Agreed. Tomorrow night or Saturday morning could drop a few inches in spots, even in the lower elevations...with the exception of Connecticut (any accumulation or even snow will be the hills). But I think I could even sneak out an inch of snow early Saturday. 

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