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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro tries for CNE too towards the end. But as usual we sell GFS.

not to be a dick but ...  I mean I admit to it too - something about these GFS solutions seem awfully cold for time of year, recent year's worth of spring behaviors...  CC/attribution.  And probably there is some acclimation bias, too.   

Yet, we keep getting days like today.  The GFS may be wrong with the details, but it's not very "napey" when the wind blows. It's annoying.  So it's kind of right in a way.

A cold day that is confusing, or perhaps obscuring from attention that we are still ending up +1 on these annoyingly chilly days.   

What's really going on there is that we are "frigid"      relative     to those three very real aspects.  Just not necessarily in deference to climatology.   That's like a the GFS is right about a cold pattern that's getting lost from credit for getting at least that much of it right.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to be a dick but ...  I mean I admit to it too - something about these GFS solutions seem awfully cold for time of year, recent year's worth of spring behaviors...  CC/attribution.  And probably there is some acclimation bias, too.   

Yet, we keep getting days like today.  

A cold day that is confusing, or perhaps obscuring from attention that we are still ending up +1 on these annoyingly chilly days.   

What's really going on there is that we are "frigid"      relative     to those three very real aspects.  Just not necessarily in deference to climatology.

GFS still trying for late next week lol. 

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12z Euro looks quite a bit different than that 00z run for later next week.   Pretty significant l/w ridge with less trough incursions up the EC ...  surface fronts probably too far E into the ridge given that depiction by obviously that sort of detail ...actually the whole pattern, are negotiable at this range.

 

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