Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[kdxken]

Stop with the stupid drought talk.

[CoastalWx]

euro soaker

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Ditty basking in warmth while scooter throws shyte?

Early Next Week:

The start to next week becomes tricky... GFS continues to indicate dry and mild under a broad high, but ECMWF and Canadian show widespread showers with more marine influence via an upper level low and onshore flow. Very messy, changeable pattern and stuck with NBM
until there`s better agreement

Better weather here potentially vs southwest. 

[CoastalWx]

61 for the low here. Glorious summer and the best season is here.

[Lava Rock]

euro soaker

Isn't this th3 5th wknd whereby all were rainers except last?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro alone next week All of that may remain over mid Atlantic with the block and ridging 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Isn't this th3 5th wknd whereby all were rainers except last?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Yep. Might be ok Saturday in some areas until late day. That’s what I’m hoping. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro alone next week All of that may remain over mid Atlantic with the block and ridging 

AI agrees. But it’s not a prolonged thing on both models.

[dendrite]

60s all night, but CAA is kicking in now. 58° and dropping. Maybe u40s by 8a?

[ineedsnow]

I thought some said we were done with frost and start planting 

 

Thursday

Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro alone next week All of that may remain over mid Atlantic with the block and ridging 

its been moving north   we flood

[dendrite]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro alone next week All of that may remain over mid Atlantic with the block and ridging 

Canadian is even worse. 

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Canadian is even worse. 

Ukie is wet.. GFS is alone

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

61 for the low here. Glorious summer and the best season is here.

@HoarfrostHubbshould agree, especially with that nice pool and screened in porch.

[CoastalWx]

DOGE got the gfs I think.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

its been moving north   we flood

No we don’t. Won’t be much for SNE

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Canadian is even worse. 

Both way overdone as usual. Just like winter. Buyer beware. Won’t be any big deal 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I thought some said we were done with frost and start planting 

 

Thursday

Patchy frost before 7am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon.

I said here . No one said some hill billy radiator wouldn’t get to 35 or something 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Stop with the stupid drought talk.

Of course the drought relief compes over the weekend  Its a work week drought...the weekends have had folks throwing benders on Noah's ark.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both way overdone as usual. Just like winter. Buyer beware. Won’t be any big deal 

Eh....actually the "overdone" trend has been limted largely to winter over the course of the past several years...these blocking episodes have had no problem coming to frution and producing during the spring. Not even being sarcastic, either.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course the drought relief compes over the weekend  Its a work week drought...the weekends have had folks throwing benders on Noah's ark.

Or throwing themselves off Noah’s ark.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....actually the "overdone" trend has been limted largely to winter over the course of the past several years...these blocking episodes have had no problem coming to frution and producing during the spring. Not even being sarcastic, either.

It’ll probably rain , but any of the flooding stuff won’t happen into SNE. Maybe mid Atlantic 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

@HoarfrostHubbshould agree, especially with that nice pool and screened in porch.

Great weather today.  But summer is still my third favorite season.  

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Great weather today.  But summer is still my third favorite season.  

I used to be like that. You’ll come around. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The 00z EPS and GEPs means agree with the principle aspects between 60 and 96 hours, but the GEFs ( and the operational GFS included) do not agree.   

The EPS/GEPs have more diving mechanics through 100 W in that range.  

The GEFs ( what's new) lean more progressive in just enough crucial amount that it bi-passes the diving/severing wave space.

What's happening at hemispheric scales in the 60 to 120 hours is a coherent d(contraction) N of the entire circumpolar westerlies - A.K.A., the rising annular mode or a +d(Arctic Oscillation)   That large scale behavior 'abandons' the ongoing wave transports at mid latitudes, and they end up cut off lows.  if/when/whether one sets up between the TV and NE regions has a lot of wiggle room as far as where, and to what scale/degree of amplitude.  

One aspect about the GFS I've noticed is that it at times sags the mean polar jet latitude out of nowhere - wholesale.  When it does, like the 06z version ... it's like it's stepping back 45 days of seasonal change.  I think the rising annular mode is likely to occur, as it's own telecon is positive.   And I've noted in the past the GFS does the over aggressive N stream.  So I find the GFS solution suspect in this case... based on that known behavior, combined with the weight of the other ens means - which also have the rising annular mode.  

I figure for some form or another of cut-off is probable.  But as is usually the case, this is where/when the models perform their worst, pinning down how much and where.   Goes to figure ... they've been all over the place with this thing for the last 4 or 5 day's worth of model cycles.     It could be a very weak system in the TV with a over arching warm ridge spilling 'over the top'....  ranging to a Del Marva gyre that pumps a seasonal corrective QPF load.   

Deterministically all this will be helped/depends on how the flow is handled between 60 and 96 hours as the models transport through ~ 100 W across the continent.  

[kdxken]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’ll probably rain , but any of the flooding stuff won’t happen into SNE. Maybe mid Atlantic 

No one was saying flooding. But okay...

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Both way overdone as usual. Just like winter. Buyer beware. Won’t be any big deal 

I don't know why anyone follows those stupid models? Looks like maybe a light shower in spots.

[powderfreak]

38F, some sun and gusty NW wind.

Nice crisp autumn air mass after summer.

Leaves should be changing soon.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

No one was saying flooding. But okay...

Yes a certain poster was