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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

that's crazy

It's that time of year when there's absolutely zero evapotranspiration going on, no green growth to slow the diurnal range in anyway shape or form.  Just dry bake during the day and then plummet at night.

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4 hours ago, rimetree said:

Low of 41F. Could be a 40-degree day here.

After stopping at 70 yesterday the temp dropped to 34 again, and we're in the mid-upper 70s - first 'forty' since last April and first 41+ since June of 2023.  Bit of a breeze but we're well into a 2nd cloudless day - not a common thing in April.

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BML 29° to 81° 

52° is the greatest diurnal range I've recorded here, in Feb 2000 (29/-23).  That month also had spreads of 49, 42 and 40. 
Fort Kent is the champ for my records, 38/-21 in Jan 1980 thanks to a strong (and wet) warm front.  However, 2/2/76 was more spectacular, dropping 57° (46/-11) between noon and 8 PM, also 44 to -6 between 1 and 6 PM, on howling NW winds.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF...GFS later next week. Fuji wara wara...Fuji bang bang

I feel that is unlikely to happen.  It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. 

For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way...

In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh.  But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error.

I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable.  I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo.   It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde.  

Personally...?  I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.  

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I feel that is unlikely to happen.  It's bordering on absurd closing a NS/NF mid/ua low and then drilling almost to BUF. 

For one, that has never happened like that in the 35 years I've been privy to modeling technology - pretty much the whole way...

In objective fairness, I suppose it is not IMpossible ... if the model's selling things that are, that would be a pretty bad deterministic tool, huh.  But the unlikeliness being what it is ( based on history; based on 'wtf how could it' ), lends to an expose of error.

I think the Euro is far in way more reasonable.  I could see a weaker cut off getting caught in the ridge amber down there. That's not unusual, although it's perhaps at a slightly lower latitude than climo.   It also dumps in a small portion of new dynamics, helping to regrograde.  

Personally...?  I think there's some chance that it's all overblown.  

Agree Euro looks more reasonable. Close to disaster in SW SNE though. It came NE a bit too. EPS does agree with the op. 

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