Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[kdxken]

7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Any shower threat beyond tomorrows looks light

Doesn't look bad but of course the showers will be next weekend.

[kdxken]

 

[Modfan2]

So far it appears most of the rain has fallen around the CTRV and western mass; only .14 here in E CT

[Chrisrotary12]

Boy these stein showers sure are wet. 

[CoastalWx]

Once this batch moves through, will get a break in SNE which could fire some storms in aftn. 

[512high]

.26"/58F rain

[kdxken]

The Flora loved the warm overnight. It just exploded. Green as far as the eye can see.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

So far it appears most of the rain has fallen around the CTRV and western mass; only .14 here in E CT

Yeah inch amounts out by Springfield. 1/2 in Central Mass.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The Flora loved the warm overnight. It just exploded. Green as far as the eye can see.

Yep. 

[ma blizzard]

18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The Flora loved the warm overnight. It just exploded. Green as far as the eye can see.

ahead of schedule? seems like my allergies have been worse than usual for late April 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

ahead of schedule? seems like my allergies have been worse than usual for late April 

We are definitely ahead here. By several days at least. 

[OceanStWx]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We are definitely ahead here. By several days at least. 

Feels like we're way ahead up here too. I don't usually see leaves until after our oldest's birthday. But the maples are pushing out some pretty swollen buds now and I can see some green popping out of the peach buds.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Feels like we're way ahead up here too. I don't usually see leaves until after our oldest's birthday. But the maples are pushing out some pretty swollen buds now and I can see some green popping out of the peach buds.

Greta expanding the warm season. Some hate to hear it.

[jbenedet]

57 minutes ago, kdxken said:

The Flora loved the warm overnight. It just exploded. Green as far as the eye can see.

It’s the dews man. The plants know. High dews; frost/freeze risk is absent.

[jbenedet]

This soaker poorly time for weekend but I’d rather see it than not have any big rainers in the forecast. Green up will kick in high gear thanks to this.

[Chrisrotary12]

Steined so hard here that there’s puddles in the backyard. 

[CoastalWx]

Semi stein here. Will see what late morning and aftn brings.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Once this batch moves through, will get a break in SNE which could fire some storms in aftn. 

This is the grungiest warm sector I believe I've ever seen in actual observations..   60/59, south of the warm boundary ?     yeeeah

I thought those GFS solutions had to be too pessimistic but here we are.  

I guess it's not a complaint - we just had 4 days back to back of 70 to 80 with lower DPs.   

The weekend timing thing ...?  mm   I think read somewhere that there's been a statistical research demonstrating that weekend are more fucked that weekdays over the perennial averages.  Which is interesting because there are only 2 weekend days vs 5, so even if the spread is slightly in favor in the numbers .. .that means the weekend shit shows are overcoming significantly stacked odds to ensure people are persecuted.   haha

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Semi stein here. Will see what late morning and aftn brings.

We'll see if those instantaneous rates start to tick up any. Right now the embedded stuff is just starting to top 1"/hr, so maybe 0.20" with how fast they are moving.

[SJonesWX]

over an inch of “just showers” so far 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is the grungiest warm sector I believe I've ever seen in actual observations..   60/59, south of the warm boundary ?     yeeeah

I thought those GFS solutions had to be too pessimistic but here we are.  

I guess it's not a complaint - we just had 4 days back to back of 70 to 80 with lower DPs.   

The weekend timing thing ...?  mm   I think read somewhere that there's been a statistical research demonstrating that weekend are more fucked that weekdays over the perennial averages.  Which is interesting because there are only 2 weekend days vs 5, so even if the spread is slightly in favor in the numbers .. .that means the weekend shit shows are overcoming significantly stacked odds to ensure people are persecuted.   haha

Feels like it’s just bad luck at times. Although in 2015 many of the snow events were on the weekend haha. 

[CoastalWx]

Windy now though. Probably gusts 30ish or a bit higher.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, SJonesWX said:

over an inch of “just showers” so far 

Had to check our forecast before I commented, but this is one of the thought processes that I go through during the warm season. Like two days ago I have no qualms about going "showers likely" but once you get to today I ask myself what public perception is going to be. Are they going to step outside and say it's showering, or it's raining. If it's the latter, I make sure I change the wording from showers to rain. 

To that end, I almost always go "rain" when PoP is 75% or greater. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Windy now though. Probably gusts 30ish or a bit higher.

Congrats on your best convection of 2025. 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Had to check our forecast before I commented, but this is one of the thought processes that I go through during the warm season. Like two days ago I have no qualms about going "showers likely" but once you get to today I ask myself what public perception is going to be. Are they going to step outside and say it's showering, or it's raining. If it's the latter, I make sure I change the wording from showers to rain. 

To that end, I almost always go "rain" when PoP is 75% or greater. 

Imho, synoptically this is unusual behavior south of a warm boundary ...     Here's a wild eye-roller idea, this is "attribution noise"  

I keep seeing these unusual scenarios all over the world, that are [perhaps] under the awareness radar, yet plausibly connected to CC. Likely because their impacts are too negligible.   But this is significantly unusual seeing this amount ceiling and realized QPF(ing) taking place in a supposed quasi-barotropic sounding.  Needing scientific, at least "sounding" reasoning?  well... higher heat = higher evaporative potential = greater WV ... so much so that equilibrium starts condensing out from subtler perturbations. 

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats on your best convection of 2025. 

No that was 2 weeks ago with hail and gusts near 60. Of course no ltg though. That’s how we roll. 25K tops or bust. 

[rimetree]

54/53 .62"

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No that was 2 weeks ago with hail and gusts near 60. Of course no ltg though. That’s how we roll. 25K tops or bust. 

Oh, you aren't topping that without some concession stand EF3 action.

[fz583]

.6"/ 57F

[SJonesWX]

31 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Had to check our forecast before I commented, but this is one of the thought processes that I go through during the warm season. Like two days ago I have no qualms about going "showers likely" but once you get to today I ask myself what public perception is going to be. Are they going to step outside and say it's showering, or it's raining. If it's the latter, I make sure I change the wording from showers to rain. 

To that end, I almost always go "rain" when PoP is 75% or greater. 

you’re fine. My comment was directed to a particular poster in Tolland who has held firm on his forecast of just showers for today.