Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats Dendy 

I'm talking the whole run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm not sold on the cutoff idea until we get closer. While it isn't uncommon for cutoffs this time of year we are also in the range where models can get cutoff happy. 

fits the telecons though ... just sayn'

I mentioned this yesterday to no acknowledgement - gee ... wonder why?  heh.   

The 00z spread actually looked a bit less so in the tele's but these operational runs at 12z didn't apparently get that memo.   The tele's may also slip back into dogshit mode ... I don't know.  This time of year, even the tele's aren't free from stochastic signals. 

Anyway, we're on D4 of way way over-achieving April days here, and after a very brief cool down on Sunday, it could be 80+ again next week.   Beyond that, if we get 3 to 5 days of rhea it's probably normal.   we'll see

[SouthCoastMA]

Got a bit smokey here in past hour. Not sure if it's that plume coming from Bourne. Could be base related 

edit: it's a controlled burn on the base..how kind of them

[CoastalWx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. Like the other day it accelerated W and then more NW towards BED and beyond. But many times I'm on the edge, or there is just enough S coast seabreeze or a gradient Srly flow to keep it north of me. I am a little more than 2 miles from the beach to my north. On paper you'd expect to see winds more N to NE..but it will envelope areas like Arlington before me. 

Textbook example right now. Harbor seabreeze from Quincy to 128/90 and NNW to almost Lowell. 

[CoastalWx]

Wind here is now SSE and now 70 off a high of 73.

[powderfreak]

The best type of days… 72F off low of 30F.  A 42 degree diurnal range.

[ineedsnow]

@Damage In Tolland congrats on a inch plus this weekend... some knew

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

@Damage In Tolland congrats on a inch plus this weekend... some knew

What? It’s .50 or so . Maybe a few get up to .75. AMOUT. Heaviest is NNE. Some rain early Saturday then ends with scattered PM storms . You forecasted 2-4” .+ lol 

[Damage In Tolland]

Smoke in the air tonight is now noticeable 

[ineedsnow]

53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What? It’s .50 or so . Maybe a few get up to .75. AMOUT. Heaviest is NNE. Some rain early Saturday then ends with scattered PM storms . You forecasted 2-4” .+ lol 

Actually 1 to 2 but close 

[Damage In Tolland]

Wagons north 

[dendrite]

59° -SHRA

Max 72.1°

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wagons north 

Looks it.

And before you say I’m calling for inches, I have no skin in the game but find it funny how hard you try to duck, dive, and weave model data that shows a solid soaking.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Looks it.

And before you say I’m calling for inches, I have no skin in the game but find it funny how hard you try to duck, dive, and weave model data that shows a solid soaking.

Found the model that soaked SNE I see . Wagons north in reality 

. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

The NBM looks reasonable.  Some folks might do better.  Some worse. 

[powderfreak]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Found the model that soaked SNE I see . Wagons north in reality 

. 

Try the latest one, not what was on Twitter earlier.  Thats 9z this is 21z.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Try the latest one, not what was on Twitter earlier.  Thats 9z this is 21z.

I mean do what you feel you need to do and say and dispel. but it’s a CNE north soaker with lesser amounts south . Rain Showers sure . Soaker . Nah

. In terms of totals, ensemble means for QPF sit
in the 0.50-0.75" range with a lower probability (30-50%) of > 1"
being highlighted for parts of of western MA.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I mean do what you feel you need to do and say and dispel. but it’s a CNE north soaker with lesser amounts south . Rain Showers sure . Soaker . Nah

. In terms of totals, ensemble means for QPF sit
in the 0.50-0.75" range with a lower probability (30-50%) of > 1"
being highlighted for parts of of western MA.

I guess I just don’t see why you arbitrarily toss guidance once your mind is made up days in advance.

I don’t have an opinion other than based on some guidance you could see maybe an inch or so.

Not sure what threshold constitutes a soaker vs showers.  Even a half inch is a solid ground soaking rain.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Nice night on Buzzards Bay. 
A little bit of NJ smoke, 

[bristolri_wx]

SREF looks wet through Monday for most...