Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, BrianW said:

 

Thursday Night

Widespread haze before 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph.

[Boston Bulldog]

11 hours ago, tamarack said:

Because New England has very little of the same fire-type ecosystems.  The NJ pine barrens' sandy soil makes for late (and puny) green-up and slow decay of litter, along with loads of pitch pine.  Almost exactly 62 years ago (4/20/63), the barrens fires covered more than 20 times the area of the current blaze - 8,500 acres at last reports.

Long Island is also susceptible to the pine barrens burns, take a look at the Sunrise Fire of 1995. A major urban conflagration event won’t happen in New England, the Hamptons on the other hand….

[dendrite]

9 hours ago, dendrite said:

Based on the extended we may be done. 

Overnight models are a little cooler around 5/4. There may be a shot for another frost/freeze for CNE then.

[512high]

38F for the low..nice!

[Chrisrotary12]

Looks like another bummer of a Saturday.

[CoastalWx]

51 minutes ago, 512high said:

38F for the low..nice!

Horrible. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Horrible. 

30F and frozen while picnic tables stay warm.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

30F and frozen while picnic tables stay warm.

Haven’t had the heat on in days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Summer here to stay 

[Typhoon Tip]

At least it's not winter any longer.    Sort of a personal rule, it is still winter until radiational cooling nights stop short of falling to or beneath 32.  

It doesn't matter how warm it is or may have gotten up to the point in time the observer thinks winter is behind them, if 2 nights down the road manage to radiate to 32 or lower, it's still winter.   We just did 2 nights in a row whence radiational cooling dictated the temperature behavior, and neither was much below 40 where I am, and appeared to stay above freezing in the bulk across the region.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

+PNA seems to be more of a bump up toward neutral positive beyond the 30th, as opposed to the stronger positive mode change in the previous computation cycles.     Of course, that's when the operational GFS' extended parks an anus over PA ...  

[tamarack]

8 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Long Island is also susceptible to the pine barrens burns, take a look at the Sunrise Fire of 1995. A major urban conflagration event won’t happen in New England, the Hamptons on the other hand….

Same ecosystem as the barrens, though not quite as extensive.  As for no New England urban fires, I'd recommend "Wildfire Loose: The Week Maine Burned", about the fires of October 1947.  Excellent recounting (especially about BHB) but, unfortunately, no maps.  200k burned, 15 fatalities, 2 small communities in SW Maine mostly obliterated.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 hours ago, dendrite said:

Based on the extended we may be done. 

Agreed.  I typically don’t get confident until later in May. 

[CoastalWx]

We used to get frosts in May. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We used to get frosts in May. 

I have no problem with it still being winter until the bs stops in May.   

It's not even arguable anyway.  The empirical data has snowed more times in May since the hockey-stick era of CC began some 20 years ago, than Mays prior to that going back 100 whatever years  - it's really overall a testament to how the shoulder seasons are getting smeared.   Same has been true in Octobers since -. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have no problem with it still being winter until the bs stops in May.   

It's not even arguable anyway.  The empirical data has snowed more times in May since the hockey-stick era of CC began some 20 years ago, than Mays prior to that going back 100 whatever years  - it's really overall a testament to how the shoulder seasons are getting smeared.   Same has been true in Octobers since -. 

 But the overall trend line has been up despite some freak events. I mean we’re getting dews near 70 into late October. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 But the overall trend line has been up despite some freak events. I mean we’re getting dews near 70 into late October. 

right... there's overlap in phenomenon.    a huge problem with human beings is that they don't even just like to, they seem to have an actual unstoppable instinctive need to place boundaries on everything - when in reality...   reality itself emerges out of multiple processes occurring simultaneously, while each individual influential force is in itself, a non-static contributions. 

Shoulder seasons are getting smeared by the type of phenomenon in this link below ....  note, this source is paraphrasing an actual scientific paper; this is not just social media John-ism,

https://phys.org/news/2025-04-hot-cold-sudden-flips-temperature.html

And that is all taking place,  while  as you say, the longer term trend is "making America great again"  

Try explaining 'overlapping contributory forcing' to the average utility dumbed-down dipshit pap on tap American civilian - of which ...we've managed to put a gaggle in charge of the country - and fucking no shit no one believes in climate change.  Or takes it seriously enough.  

Doesn't matter...  Fermi Paradox explanation's obviously and quite evidentiary going to claim an extinction level event long before winters have completely been removed from the map, anyway.    Enjoy sniffing Trumps ball sack everyone - you're a fucking gem in the history of the world

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Summer here to stay 

6z GFS 

[Lava Rock]

weekend looks like dung. C'mon man!

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, 512high said:

38F for the low..nice!

39

[dendrite]

If we ever get ice free in the arctic and start putting heat into warming the ocean up there instead of melting ice…look out. You can probably slap another month of lag onto the arrival of cold season. 

[dendrite]

36.2° this morn. 
 

Already 54°

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven’t had the heat on in days. 

Me neither.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

If we ever get ice free in the arctic and start putting heat into warming the ocean up there instead of melting ice…look out. You can probably slap another month of lag onto the arrival of cold season. 

Curious...could that increase the likelihood of -NAO's? I could be wrong on this but isn't there also some correlation between SSTA's in the domain/NAO phase? But I guess it wouldn't matter if there was no cold around  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Me neither.

I get a ton of sun before leaf out so it starts to warm the house this time of year.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven’t had the heat on in days. 

Using very minimal heat up here… the day time warmth and sun seem to do most of the work… our biggest windows and slider doors face south.  Doesn’t cool off as much at night inside with everything locked up.

Beautiful morning out there.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Mid level cloud deck ( should lose out to more sun going forward...)  sorta interfering with warming a little ... but not huge. 

It's 55 along Rt "shadowed"   but yeah, it's diurnal time. 

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Looks like another bummer of a Saturday.

This will be the fifth Saturday in a row with rain in Greenfield.  I know some places didn’t get any last Saturday, but we did twice that day. 

[CoastalWx]

Morning looks to be ok here. But Sunday looks like crap with windy,chilly temps.

[CoastalWx]

80+ tomorrow from just SW of BOS to say Amherst and points south.