Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

[dendrite]

6z still looks a bit wet, but the afternoon looks decent.

[dendrite]

Min 39.3°

Would be awesome if we have already had our last freeze.

[CoastalWx]

Let’s get 85-90 next week for the dude in CT who’s afraid of heat. 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get 85-90 next week for the dude in CT who’s afraid of heat. 

First week of May might remind -

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get 85-90 next week for the dude in CT who’s afraid of heat. 

That's the woman from Kansas with six cats and overalls. Auntie em

[Typhoon Tip]

Sounds like you guys are heavily leaning on the GFS for Saturday?  There's not much mention going back and forth that includes the other guidance.

The differences between them are not that significant, granted, but the 00z GFS was the wetter implied run.  It and previous runs had persistent tendency for low-on-the-front burst while the whole mechanical wave space translates over the area...  The Euro and GGEM both have less of that.  Then, the 06z GFS appears to align more like the Eu/GGEM.  So the blend is valid in my mind and as of now ... the error correcting doesn't favor the GFS' prior runs.  

The Euro, by the way, has a severe potential on Saturday upon a discrete look.  There's temperature recovery potential after dawn WAA showers are leaving, and partial clearing is well timed with heating.  Elevated DP slotted air/warm sector.  Theta-e ridge with narrow SB CAPE transport up the CT R Valley to as high as S VT... and spreads E by late morning.  I'd would watch that.   That setting looks rather explosive mid day CB scenario and the Euro model's QPF imagination is painting descrete thunderstorms firing off by 18z over far E NY. 

Sunday looks breezy under self-destruction CAA clouds.  Sorta blagh, chilly, and annoying.

Short lived as Monday looks like a top-5 day in all guidance.  Particularly after 11 a.m.   All guidance depict deep layer light W flow transporting a rapidly warming 900 to 850 mb layer.  At this time of year and sun strength, that's easily tapped.   Dry air at all ceiling levels.   +4 850s or so by day's end... I tell you though, that looks ripe for summer sun intensity mutilating the thermal profiles/super adiabatic extension.  Probably over -achieving to 72 and going above machine numbers.

Tuesday and Wednesday are mid summer.   Probably approaching or even exceeding 80 on Tuesday, and in the 80s Wednesday ...another convection chance that afternoon.  GGEM's not useful beyond D5 ...it's wantonly cold profiles everywhere and every dimension stress believability.  The Euro and GFS match the telecons well enough and blend out to +14+ on Tuesday already by 18z, and 16+ on Wednesday. With deep layer WSW/SW flow and lower ceiling RH still being the case ... whatever machine numbers have for those days, the correction vector is higher. 

Then, the first week of May ... hmm... significant mode change in the ens -based PNA from all systems..  Rising from negative to positive, with retreated N/Stream, sets the E.C. open to a cut-off spring shit show.   It's just far enough off that this could meta to some other/lesser implication, but that's what the deeper range mass fields are suggesting at this time. 

[WinterSnow]

17 hours ago, weathafella said:

How in heavens name did you ever survive OK?

I didn't very well. But I think my tolerance for the heat and sun has decreased as I've gotten older. So it wasn't always this bad for me.

Plus, again - summer acclimation. I don't acclimate to the heat all of that much, but I do find 70s a lot better in July and August than I do right now. I wonder what it would be like to not need that acclimation and just be normal and like the 70s and the 80s.

[WxWatcher007]

I am legitimately overjoyed to be on the cusp of extended warmth and sun. 

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, kdxken said:

 Stupid rain ruins everything. Why are we NOT getting these?

Typos.

Because New England has very little of the same fire-type ecosystems.  The NJ pine barrens' sandy soil makes for late (and puny) green-up and slow decay of litter, along with loads of pitch pine.  Almost exactly 62 years ago (4/20/63), the barrens fires covered more than 20 times the area of the current blaze - 8,500 acres at last reports.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Because New England has very little of the same fire-type ecosystems.  The NJ pine barrens' sandy soil makes for late (and puny) green-up and slow decay of litter, along with loads of pitch pine.  Almost exactly 62 years ago (4/20/63), the barrens fires covered more than 20 times the area of the current blaze - 8,500 acres at last reports.

It’s pretty incredible how our regional location contributes to the ecological and climatological conditions to mitigate widespread extreme weather. 

[mreaves]

51 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s pretty incredible how our regional location contributes to the ecological and climatological conditions to mitigate widespread extreme weather. 

You've obviously never seen @weatherwiz's Countdown to May 1 Severe season threads that get created 2 years in advance to take in all the severe events that happen here!

[The 4 Seasons]

I don't know if i've ever seen this map this empty before, for a second i thought it didn't load.

It's quiet out there, a little too quiet

[Chrisrotary12]

Saturday turn into rain showers yet? Would appreciate the NAM being correct. 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Saturday turn into rain showers yet? Would appreciate the NAM being correct. 

Dr. No kinda says yes? Maybe? We just don't know?

 

[Brewbeer]

Beautiful day in Burlington VT today

[Torch Tiger]

Great evening out there. Gotta get after it

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Great evening out there. Gotta get after it

Windows and doors open, nice breeze.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Gorgeous run of days. The last snow pile by the mailbox is just about gone! Tomorrow should do it.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Dr. No kinda says yes? Maybe? We just don't know?

 

Kind of a Steiner . It’ll shower sure.. but nothing drenching to put out fires. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Windows and doors open, nice breeze.

Any nudity?

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any nudity?

Gotta feel the breeze somehow…

[Sn0waddict]

Hrrr says we are on tap for a smokey day tomorrow due to the NJ wildfire. 

[Sn0waddict]

2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Hrrr says we are on tap for a smokey day tomorrow due to the NJ wildfire. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Hrrr says we are on tap for a smokey day tomorrow due to the NJ wildfire. 

We are burning 

[powderfreak]

Only 4 more days before we shut ‘em down.  This morning might’ve been the the best one left.

72” at the stake on a 54” average.

It’s time though.  I’m ready.  Bring the warmth. 

[BrianW]

1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said:

 

 

 

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are burning 

We are?

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 hours ago, dendrite said:

Min 39.3°

Would be awesome if we have already had our last freeze.

Good luck with that

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Good luck with that

Based on the extended we may be done. 

[H2Otown_WX]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Kind of a Steiner . It’ll shower sure.. but nothing drenching to put out fires. 

So you're going against Hammertime?