bristolri_wx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 2:38 AM, Typhoon Tip said: It’s less likely Saturday will produce like that Late spring/early summer temp tomorrow and Wednesday on this NAM run Expand The 18z operational runs already cut back on the precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 .45 inches of rain overnight. As Ditty would say, I woke up surprised. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 9:27 AM, kdxken said: .45 inches of rain overnight. As Ditty would say, I woke up surprised. Expand About the same here. Probably double just to my south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Dumpage..and now the birds are chirping. Yep we’re getting deeper into spring by the day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Off to the torches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 9:27 AM, kdxken said: .45 inches of rain overnight. As Ditty would say, I woke up surprised. Expand weren't we told that there was stein for the foreseeable future? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:05 AM, weatherwiz said: It’s set to 69 or 70 Expand In April???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 11:32 AM, Great Snow 1717 said: In April???? Expand Haven't adjusted it yet. Next step would be just to outright turn it off which I'll probably do in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 11:23 AM, SJonesWX said: weren't we told that there was stein for the foreseeable future? Expand in that case the foreseeable future was about 30 seconds lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Should be getting into sun soon and then temps should skyrocket. A little chilly sitting outside but the back edge of the clouds is getting closer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Sun starting to show here. Around 0.15” overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 12:36 PM, weatherwiz said: Should be getting into sun soon and then temps should skyrocket. A little chilly sitting outside but the back edge of the clouds is getting closer Expand I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc... It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloudy when you check. heh. Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now. we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:28 PM, Typhoon Tip said: I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc... It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloud when you check. heh. Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now. we'll see... Expand Yeah I was just thinking that. At least here, satellite presentation seems to offer a more optimistic picture than what the sky really is. But I am also towards the back edge of a thicker deck. Just waiting to look off to the west and see blue skies but nothing in sight so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:34 PM, weatherwiz said: Yeah I was just thinking that. At least here, satellite presentation seems to offer a more optimistic picture than what the sky really is. But I am also towards the back edge of a thicker deck. Just waiting to look off to the west and see blue skies but nothing in sight so far. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Looping that ... the mid and high levels are actually not the problem. There's terrain-enhanced low shit that's sort of stationary-ish, while the weak flow going down slope has sun over the valleys... You can get a sense of where the ridge line vs lower els are aligned. That region over NE Mass is the back edge of the mid/ua lid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:37 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Expand I'd like to see real-time temps from PWS in eastern NY there and see how quickly temperatures are shooting up. Also seems like that back edge just keeps rebuilding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:39 PM, weatherwiz said: I'd like to see real-time temps from PWS in eastern NY there and see how quickly temperatures are shooting up. Also seems like that back edge just keeps rebuilding Expand https://www.weather.gov/wrh/hazards?obs=true&wfo=grr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 If you expand that product you can almost tell by temperature distribution that a diffused sort of warm front probably failed in the nocturnal cooled sludge to get NE of NY... Lot of 60s just SW of the region. My hunch is that the NAM thought it would be more successful. It's probably better at this point to have the main boundary just sweep house. There's very little CAA if at all behind ...so that may be where we get a recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/20/2025 at 10:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Man is Stein back right thru end of month . Wonder if spots will see gypsies hatch in some areas, Expand please define stein. 1/4" last night, another ~1" coming this weekend is not stein 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 I like the +18C on Euro for next Wednesday. GFS is warm too on Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I like the +18C on Euro for next Wednesday. GFS is warm too on Tuesday. Expand Yup been eying that... That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux. ...In the middle of the chain to the desk part of the week, too. sweet. But no worries ...we'll make up for it at 49 F and .78" of slat gray bum pounding on Saturday. Actually Sunday could a great recovery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:52 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yup been eying that... That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux. ...In the middle of the chain to the desk week, too. sweet Expand If the timing works out could be a decent convection opportunity. Pretty good shortwave/dynamics but right now the timing sucks for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:54 PM, weatherwiz said: If the timing works out could be a decent convection opportunity. Pretty good shortwave/dynamics but right now the timing sucks for us. Expand It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude. It's intersection of CAPE/lapse rate. We're all lapse this early. We rely on the biological farts accumulated across the whole continent for the bulk of our DPs in the warm season, and that doesn't really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source this early, when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:57 PM, Typhoon Tip said: It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude. We rely on the biological farts for a lot of DPs in the warm season, and that does really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus Expand I know it was like mid April but I can't remember the year...I want to say either April 2006 or 2007 but it was a Saturday and I was headed to Cooperstown for the baseball HOF. Anyways, it was a pretty solid severe day back across NY/PA...several supercells and decent hailers...only thing that prevented it from being a bigger severe day was the low dews (only in the 50's). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:47 PM, SJonesWX said: please define stein. 1/4" last night, another ~1" coming this weekend is not stein Expand On 2/17 he wondered if SNE had seen it's last snowfall of the season... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 1:49 PM, CoastalWx said: I like the +18C on Euro for next Wednesday. GFS is warm too on Tuesday. Expand Get them up and in(stalled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 2:03 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: On 2/17 he wondered if SNE had seen it's last snowfall of the season... Expand Can always tell when you have nothing to do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 This thick llvl deck absolutely blows. I can see a tiny disc outlining the sun but you can tell how thick the deck is. Given its still mid-to-late April this is going to take time to erode...if it was another month from now this probably be nearly eroded. I bet its like another hour ughhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 2:11 PM, weatherwiz said: This thick llvl deck absolutely blows. I can see a tiny disc outlining the sun but you can tell how thick the deck is. Given its still mid-to-late April this is going to take time to erode...if it was another month from now this probably be nearly eroded. I bet its like another hour ughhh Expand burst out here about 45 min ago... 61 up from 54 . Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 On 4/22/2025 at 3:13 PM, Typhoon Tip said: burst out here about 45 min ago... 61 up from 54 . Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun. Expand Yeah probably about 30 minutes or so ago got the burst out here. Quite a bit of blue sky and sun now. Temperatures should really shoot up over this next hour, especially given this burst out occurred just prior to prime heating time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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