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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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59 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Should be getting into sun soon and then temps should skyrocket. A little chilly sitting outside but the back edge of the clouds is getting closer 

I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc...  It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloudy when you check.   heh.

Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now.  we'll see...

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've been tricked once already this young warm season in doubting a warm temperature blossom based upon morning trends... Namely, the 84 I put up here on Saturday... It was like 68 at a 11am with cloud contamination ...etc...  It was one of those days where when you are not looking at satellite, the sun pokes through, but it it's always cloud when you check.   heh.

Still, 75 seems like a stretch here when it 51 and drizzle and sky on satellite is clearly indicating that the models were too optimistic in clearing things out by now.  we'll see...

Yeah I was just thinking that. At least here, satellite presentation seems to offer a more optimistic picture than what the sky really is. But I am also towards the back edge of a thicker deck. Just waiting to look off to the west and see blue skies but nothing in sight so far.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah I was just thinking that. At least here, satellite presentation seems to offer a more optimistic picture than what the sky really is. But I am also towards the back edge of a thicker deck. Just waiting to look off to the west and see blue skies but nothing in sight so far.

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Looping that ... the mid and high levels are actually not the problem.  There's terrain-enhanced low shit that's sort of stationary-ish, while the weak flow going down slope has sun over the valleys...  You can get a sense of where the ridge line vs lower els are aligned.   That region over NE Mass is the back edge of the mid/ua lid

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If you expand that product you can almost tell by temperature distribution that a diffused sort of warm front probably failed in the nocturnal cooled sludge to get NE of NY... Lot of 60s just SW of the region.  My hunch is that the NAM thought it would be more successful.  

It's probably better at this point to have the main boundary just sweep house.   There's very little CAA if at all behind ...so that may be where we get a recovery. 

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On 4/20/2025 at 6:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Man is Stein back right thru end of month . Wonder if spots will see gypsies hatch in some areas, 

please define stein. 1/4" last night, another ~1" coming this weekend is not stein

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the +18C on Euro for next Wednesday. GFS is warm too on Tuesday. 

Yup been eying that...  That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. 

I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux.   ...In the middle of the chain to the desk part of the week, too.   sweet.  But no worries ...we'll make up for it at 49 F and .78" of slat gray bum pounding on Saturday.

Actually Sunday could a great recovery

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup been eying that...  That 29th/30th warm surge has been off and on, but getting more "on" across recent day's of runs. 

I think of that as the next 80+ burst... Sort of a Saturday partial redux.   ...In the middle of the chain to the desk week, too.   sweet

If the timing works out could be a decent convection opportunity. Pretty good shortwave/dynamics but right now the timing sucks for us. 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If the timing works out could be a decent convection opportunity. Pretty good shortwave/dynamics but right now the timing sucks for us. 

It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude. It's intersection of CAPE/lapse rate.  We're all lapse this early.  

We rely on the biological farts accumulated across the whole continent for the bulk of our DPs in the warm season, and that doesn't really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. 

Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source this early, when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's tough before May ... these warm synoptic return surges at this time of year tend to be DP challenged at this latitude.   We rely on the biological farts for a lot of DPs in the warm season, and that does really ratchet up until the green up it is farther along than this breast bud time of the year. 

Later in the summer we can get a Bermuda circulation that brings Floridian source on the big curve ...but not likely getting DP contribution from that source when the westerlies are still driving fronts so actively through and the N/stream won't fucking die ... jesus

I know it was like mid April but I can't remember the year...I want to say either April 2006 or 2007 but it was a Saturday and I was headed to Cooperstown for the baseball HOF. Anyways, it was a pretty solid severe day back across NY/PA...several supercells and decent hailers...only thing that prevented it from being a bigger severe day was the low dews (only in the 50's). 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This thick llvl deck absolutely blows. I can see a tiny disc outlining the sun but you can tell how thick the deck is. Given its still mid-to-late April this is going to take time to erode...if it was another month from now this probably be nearly eroded. I bet its like another hour ughhh

burst out here about 45 min ago...

61 up from 54 .   Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

burst out here about 45 min ago...

61 up from 54 .   Sat trends suggest this air mass is being heavily modulated by the sun.

Yeah probably about 30 minutes or so ago got the burst out here. Quite a bit of blue sky and sun now. Temperatures should really shoot up over this next hour, especially given this burst out occurred just prior to prime heating time. 

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