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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!


Torch Tiger
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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Finally the greatest and most stress free season is here. 

Every season is stressful weatherwise in New England. I go from being stressed about to to being stressed about whether it’s going to rainout my golf tournament, BBQ or other outdoor activity. In fact it may be more stressful because if I’m not outside doing something during summer, it feels like I am wasting days. 

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23 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Every season is stressful weatherwise in New England. I go from being stressed about to to being stressed about whether it’s going to rainout my golf tournament, BBQ or other outdoor activity. In fact it may be more stressful because if I’m not outside doing something during summer, it feels like I am wasting days. 

The summer of Scooter about to start. And then we pray Ray is right with a 100” season next year.

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mm  I kinda see where Scott's coming from with the sense that we're breaking out of winter's stretching tentacles - seems to be this is the week this year is choosing to do so.  I remember remarking last week that these charts in this period were repositioning the 540 dm thickness N of the border after this mid week period ...still the case.

Take today ... it's snowing on the roof line way up there, granted, but this is sub-540 dm thickness yet we're not in the 30s like we would have been just a week ago, instead ... holding in the mid 40s.  That subtle distinction of "failing" the cold relative to synoptic metrics is really more spring like than winter to me  -fwiw    

We'll see how tonight's lows go.   It's possible we stay above freezing but if we decouple and make the upper 20s (S of CNE ) it may be the last time we see those readings 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  I kinda see where Scott's coming from with the sense that we're breaking out of winter's stretching tentacles - seems to be this is the week this year is choosing to do so.  I remember remarking last week that these charts in this period were repositioning the 540 dm thickness N of the border after this mid week period ...still the case.

Take today ... it's snowing on the roof line way up there, granted, but this is sub-540 dm thickness yet we're not in the 30s like we would have been just a week ago, instead ... holding in the mid 40s.  That subtle distinction of "failing" the cold relative to synoptic metrics is really more spring like than winter to me  -fwiw    

We'll see how tonight's lows go.   It's possible we stay above freezing but if we decouple and make the upper 20s (S of CNE ) it may be the last time we see those readings 

Pretty sure I am done here with sub 32. I don't radiate. Sure we may have bouts of ass mist, but you can see how we are turning another corner towards the warm season. 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

High of 62 yesterday - once the early clouds broke away, the heat was on.  We missed most of the afternoon rain, getting 0.22" while Carrabassett Valley got 1.08", but about half of our rain came in the first 3 minutes, with nice fat July-like drops pounding down.

yeah... reminds me.   I'm not a big fan of the stein meme stuff and tend to roll-eyes or just scroll very quickly past so that I don't have to even expend the energy rolling eyes I hate it so much.  

I just find it to be 'manufacturing outrage,"  a behavior common to the social media - indirectly related to the social mechanics in how/why society as a whole found itself in a state of "making America great again".   Stimulation junkies. That's what the pack population density is now.  Knee jerk judgements for recreational outrage... basically, a melt down at civility ( hopefully not leading inexorably to "biblical") scales. Fear takes over.  People contract. Progressive ideologies only contributes ... Populism results.  That makes them prone to fascism, because a fascinating failing of human beings is, when they are afraid ...the want daddy and the hierarchical social command structure to protect them - geee...wonder where that psychology is born from.   It's just another peregrination of history we are going through, and it's been repeating itself going all the way back to the Napoleonic wars. But I'm digressing. 

When aspiring events are at a premium, boredom leads to lust for something, anything dystopia ... and so drought becomes to the angst. But, our reality is usually just when reality seems it may get out of control ...it doesn't. 

That's what it's like here in this region of the continent.  When it comes to drought's contribution to the plausible hysterical entertainment quota, some weird MCS (say) rots some night and dents it below the true omg threshold.   It's like the unattainable 40" snow pack in the 495 belt of down here in SNE.  We've been close ...but something always happens to limit it from going above that. GOAT years tend to hol' up about 36 give or take. 

"Droughts" here tend to be intraseasonal, not surviving past the ensuing shoulder season, anyway.  Usually ...

This year mmm.  I find it a little more intriguing because we were below climo input into the system this winter by a significant margin, yet, are now failing to "catch up" ( so far ;) ) this spring. 

I don't think it's an issue until the bigger reservoirs basins start showing ringed islands while stream flows are down to water gnats bouncing off feted fish corpse' ... But if we get a WNW summer ( warmer than normal chinookian flow with lowish DPs) after this recent 8 months,  we'll see if that environmental state is approached.   

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5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

6z euro is mid 60s on Easter Sunday now. GFS close to 70. Not sure about sun though 

yeah, other guidance have been hinting at slowing the pattern, too   That ridge has been burgeoning at small increments across subsequent runs - ensemble means, too.  If anything the surface front looks too far S-E for the mid levels at this point.

We'll see

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Heh... short lived!

If the NAM is right that is...   tomorrow has that late summer sun annihilating the chilly air mass written all over it.  Could see that being upper 50s with wind going light under late summer intensity sun ...  about a 10 out of 10 on the naper scale.  

Temps don't fall off tomorrow night much ... at least toward the coast.  I suspect we'll still see some decoupling in the interrior and some over achieving frost, but Friday is featuring nearly identical profiles to what just occurred here on Monday, whence T drove above machine and ended up 68 to 72 throughout the area.   

Saturday may touch 80. Even the NAM's 2-meters are 75+ and it's really, really difficult to get this particular model that warm at this time of year - have they even flipped the seasonal switch on that tool?   Chris ( Maine's office ) once told me that the NAM does have seasonal dependent algorithms.  Brian might know...whatever... 

this cold is mainly today and tonight.

 

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think the humidity will come, but I’m not convinced how hot the summer will be, at least the first half.

There is some discussion on that. Might not be as hot as some thought. I’m so done with being stressed and disgusted during the cold season. Feels like I crawled out of that shit pipe from Shawshank and now I’m free. 

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