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Napril 2025 Obs/Discussion!

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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radarman
radarman

So gorgeous WE needed this

powderfreak
powderfreak

The mountain got smoked.  It culminated with 4" in one hour between 7am and 8am this morning.  This was one of the heaviest 3 hour periods I can remember.  

dendrite
dendrite

Posted Images

Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I know it’s hard to see when you also were wrong about the much drier trend on guidance. 
 

Those dark shades of green on the QPF output verified. 
 

Cheers.

There’s no doubt it trended drier in many areas.. just stating it’s hard to prove your point with the map you posted.. if you showed a qpf forecast starting 00z Saturday then hawked actual precip totals that would be a better visualization. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I’m seeing that we lost the sub freezing lows in coastal NH so it’s time to start planting.

As bad as April has been it looks like ~10 days ahead of last year, in this regard.

Really? I have pics from around this day last year and the trees and grass are much further along. By a lot 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Still waiting for the 1.5” deluge @ineedsnow promised us with his trusty HRDPS

All stations in NH with less than 0.5” LE storm total. 

Zzzzzzzzz

How about the under a 1/4 you promised..? honestly I don't care if you got two inches or nothing.. you got the degree right? So it's your job to be right not mine and you were wrong! Also showing maps with less precip when most of the storm is already done to prove a point is pathetic.. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I dunno .. I get that this is a social media ... " loosely" weather related ... and that it's free speech - and that's good!   In an era of leaning fascism ( unthinkable in 2025 that is the case...), the bastions of unencumbered speak-easy's definitely need to prevail. 

But, that also doesn't lend to the most rational contribution, either, not coming from Americana.  LOL     

Imho, there will always be someone that likes what the consensus does not, but just from my many decades of suffering along side humanity I feel above 90% confident that any consensus would return that the weather the last two days has been a rim to rim shit show April weekend.   Not much else needs to be elaborated or mutated from that distinction.  Attempting to gaslight people into feeling this was a better weekend than it was?

 okay...  Not sure what the motivation in the discussion is honestly...  

Personally, I've gaslit myself into thinking this weekend is "tolerable", because of this:     36000433131 -3511 062308 54150803

Those are 8 pm tomorrow later afternoon numerical profiles numbers off the NAM.  They've been as such pretty much for the last day and a half of cycles. 

What the '3131' bold means, those are the RH at the 700 and 500 mb levels.   < 50% is clear by definition.    Now...this does not account above 500 mb, where cirrus blankets roam ... but I checked those levels at Pivotal and the they are not 70% or above, indicating that sun will be penetrating.  

What the '2308' bold means, those are wind direction and speed.  23 ==> 230 degrees .. which is WSW, at 08 is 8 kts.  So ... very light breezes from a warm wind direction under afternoon sun so far. 

What the '150803' bold means, those are temperatures in the vertical profile.   So, +15C at 980 mb ( mid way up the Prudential Tower altitude), and then +8 at 900 mb and +3 at 800 mb respectively.  This requires understanding how to read a blank skew-t log -p diagram which I'm not taking an audience that has even read this far through that education .. .but, given the light wind and ample sun, and +6 or +7 estimated mixing temperature, that's probably about 21 or 22C down on the streets.   22C = ~ 71

If we can verify that ...  it sucks it's on a Monday, but clock out at 2:30 if you can for a sanity hour  and it's at least a reach-around gesture by an otherwise demonic month

 

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rclab

rclab

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno .. I get that this is a social media ... " loosely" weather related ... and that it's free speech - and that's good!   In an era of leaning fascism ( unthinkable in 2025 that is the case...), the bastions of unencumbered speak-easy's definitely need to prevail. 

But, that also doesn't lend to the most rational contribution, either, not coming from Americana.  LOL     

Imho, there will always be someone that likes what the consensus does not, but just from my many decades of suffering along side humanity I feel above 90% confident that any consensus would return that the weather the last two days has been a rim to rim shit show April weekend.   Not much else needs to be elaborated or mutated from that distinction.  Attempting to gaslight people into feeling this was a better weekend than it was?

 okay...  Not sure the motivation in the discussion is honestly...  

Personally, I've gaslit myself into thinking this weekend is "tolerable", because of this:     36000433131 -3511 062308 54150803

Those are 8 pm tomorrow later afternoon numerical profiles numbers off the NAM.  They've been as such pretty much for the last day and a half of cycles. 

What the '3131' bold means, those are the RH at the 700 and 500 mb levels.   < 50% is clear by definition.    Now...this does not account above 500 mb, where cirrus blankets roam ... but I checked those levels at Pivotal and the they are not 70% or above, indicating that sun will be penetrating.  

What the '2308' bold means, those are wind direction and speed.  23 ==> 230 degrees .. which is WSW, at 08 is 8 kts.  So ... very light breezes from a warm wind direction under afternoon sun so far. 

What the '150803' bold means, those are temperatures in the vertical profile.   So, +15C at 980 mb ( mid way up the Prudential Tower altitude), and then +8 at 900 mb and +3 at 800 mb respectively.  This requires understanding how to read a blank skew-t log -p diagram which I'm not taking an audience that has even read this far through that education .. .but, given the light wind and ample sun, and +6 or +7 estimated mixing temperature, that's probably about 21 or 22C down on the streets.   22C = ~ 71

 

Good Sunday morning Tip. This Sun, albeit briefly, graced the postage stamp with its rays this am. In reference to your third paragraph and in respect to your decades of suffering I will always consider you not just along side of but actually part of humanity. Stay well, as always ….

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Re the pattern going forward:   

As I outlined yesterday ...  'even if the ridge doesn't prevail, the pattern foot is milder'     that seems to be the case as of this morning.  The overnight runs removed the cherry on top with the warm dome that some of them were teasing, but... the principle aspect of having the 540 dm thickness contour retreated to 55 N still is intact.  

These are like +2 to +7 850 mb days with nights above freezing ... probably low 40s to upper 60s as the mean.   The cherry on top could certainly also materialize/show up in future guidance, too.
 

We just need to get on the other side of the 20th

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Re the pattern going forward:   

As I outlined yesterday ...  'even if the ridge doesn't prevail, the pattern foot is milder'     that seems to be the case as of this morning.  The overnight runs removed the cherry on top with the warm dome that some of them were teasing, but... the principle aspect of having the 540 dm thickness contour retreated to 55 N still is intact.  

These are like +2 to +7 850 mb days with nights above freezing ... probably low 40s to upper 60s as the mean.   The cherry on top could certainly also materialize/show up in future guidance, too.
 

We just need to get on the other side of the 20th

We are out of this cold pattern . It’s slow.. but it is progressing 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are out of this cold pattern . It’s slow.. but it is progressing 

But the point is, it/this has hung on a lot longer than most thought.  Sure, we’ve had some warm days tossed in, but not many at all.  That’s why the foliage/green up is significantly behind last year and the year before.    Obviously as we continue to progress through spring, the nicer weather/warmth will come; but it’s taking its sweet time this year.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the point is, it/this has hung on a lot longer than most thought.  Sure, we’ve had some warm days tossed in, but not many at all.  That’s why the foliage/green up is significantly behind last year and the year before.    Obviously as we continue to progress through spring, the nicer weather/warmth will come; but it’s taking its sweet time this year.  

Tomorrow should be pretty damn balmy... at least in metro west of Boston up through S NH and down the 84 corridor into the HFD zones.  

Cool/cold (whatever adjective one needs to use ...) air mass mid week...  then, the there are wholesale changes over our side of the hemisphere.. particularly 20th+.  And as I've been pointing out, they are both definitively different, but also milder by implication.   So, we may be a week away from the end of "taking sweet time" era.  

We'll see... I don't wanna be skewered because it's still April, and April's strap one on even in the best of years...  but that's just the way it all's leaning at this time.

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