JenkinsJinkies Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Once again rain entered the forecast for Sunday and for a few days models were showing decent forecasted amounts, then once it got to 2-3 days out it got significantly walked back. This has been the trend since last summer, a threat shows up long range, in the days leading up to it there's widespread modeling of an inch or more, only to then suddenly and epically get walked back to about 5-25% of what was forecasted. Numerous rain events have failed over that period of time, wether it be westward traveling Ohio valley thunderstorms getting killed by down sloping or more steady systems from the south running into an anti rain force field somewhere around Richmond a good portion of our rainfall has either entirely fizzled out by the time it gets to us or gets so degraded that what was supposed to be an inch turns out to be 0.1 inches. Ever since winter 2022-23 it seems like something changed with our rainfall patterns, there appears to be more suppression keeping the moisture locked in the deep south. Even tropical remnants have trouble making their way up here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 It seems like from 2018 to 2022 we got completely swamped in my area. Areas of forest became wetlands and killed off the hardwood trees. My garden rotted in 2018 due to non stop flooding rain all summer. We're just in a dry period. It was probably beneficial. I've noticed the new swamp areas have dried up and plants are trying to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It seems like from 2018 to 2022 we got completely swamped in my area. Areas of forest became wetlands and killed off the hardwood trees. My garden rotted in 2018 due to non stop flooding rain all summer. We're just in a dry period. It was probably beneficial. I've noticed the new swamp areas have dried up and plants are trying to return. If that's the case then we could be in for some California tier wildfires from all that undergrowth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said: If that's the case then we could be in for some California tier wildfires from all that undergrowth. That is true. The forest here in the lowlands are mess of overgrown brush and fallen dead oak trees. The high rainfall and humidity over the wet years killed off a lot of the oaks. They are all blowing over now and cluttering the forest flood. A good fire would be welcome but we don’t do forest maintenance in MD. Edit: I feel like we're going to get a north and west trend overnight. The orientation of the precip doesn't scream down slopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 8.57” of liquid here since September 1. Normal for the same period is 18.51” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 11 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 8.57” of liquid here since September 1. Normal for the same period is 18.51” Wow that's even drier than it was down here for the first 7 months last year.. Everything changed down here last Aug Sept... Amazing that very little of that 2 weeks of tropical downpours to end Sept in the central Valley Charlottesville area made it up there.... One of the most unique events i ever recorded - 15+ in 15 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 6 hours ago, Jrlg1181 said: Wow that's even drier than it was down here for the first 7 months last year.. Everything changed down here last Aug Sept... Amazing that very little of that 2 weeks of tropical downpours to end Sept in the central Valley Charlottesville area made it up there.... One of the most unique events i ever recorded - 15+ in 15 days... It was so strange how Helene just veered hard west as soon as it crossed into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 16 Author Share Posted March 16 The Thursday rain is in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 My point and click has rain and low clouds most of next week. Hopefully there's rain and not just drizzle for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted March 17 Author Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, dailylurker said: My point and click has rain and low clouds most of next week. Hopefully there's rain and not just drizzle for a week. Have you learned nothing from winter? These things can vanish in the lead up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Recurring drought conditions have been a problem in the Valley for the past 5 years. Last year ended 1.89" above normal because of a very wet August and September but this is deceiving because most of the year was very dry with moderate to severe drought conditions. The last really wet year was 2020. So far in 2025 the first 75 days finds me .19" below normal. Regarding rain for most of next week, the GFS/ECM predicts a weekly total of .86" for my location. The normal rainfall is .87". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Amazing just HOW SHARP the cut-off is for precip. Sitting at 12.55" since 1/1 and 30.1" of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 53 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Amazing just HOW SHARP the cut-off is for precip. Sitting at 12.55" since 1/1 and 30.1" of snow here. What is your average annual snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 5 hours ago, katabatic said: What is your average annual snowfall? The 30 year avg is 27, but last 10 years is running 18.3. This is first year above 'climo' since 18/19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now