March 14-16 2025 Severe Threat

[NorthArlington101]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We seem to be getting better at messaging the high events better, which is translating to lower fatalities.

WaPo says we’re up to 10 - which isn’t terrible from a PDS Warning : Fatality ratio. We’ll see how the numbers settle out. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Here we go:

 

 

 

 

[Tyler Penland]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

WaPo says we’re up to 10 - which isn’t terrible from a PDS Warning : Fatality ratio. We’ll see how the numbers settle out. 

13 now. 

That new MD is spine-chilling.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Jesus that new MD is terrifying. Godspeed to yall! 

[Blue Ridge]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

13 now. 

That new MD is spine-chilling.

The corresponding watch doesn’t provide much comfort, either. 
 

 

WT 0045 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

[Tyler Penland]

Watch text: 

"SUMMARY...MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. WITH
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, NUMEROUS TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE INTENSE TO VIOLENT
TORNADOES (EF3-4+). SCATTERED LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5-2.5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-75 MPH WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. "

 

Starting to really take off now. Storm motion still pretty N/S, gonna have a hard time getting the storms spaced out for long unless they get a more E/W component to them.

[MNstorms]

25 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

The corresponding watch doesn’t provide much comfort, either. 
 

 

WT 0045 PDS
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES                        : >95%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES       : >95%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS          :  60%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS              :  70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES          :  60%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/                            : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/               : 65
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/                        : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24040
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION             : YES

When was the last time the tornado probabilities maxed out?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, MNstorms said:

When was the last time the tornado probabilities maxed out?

Quick view through IEMBot shows the two April 2011 outbreaks.

[MNstorms]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Quick view through IEMBot shows the two April 2011 outbreaks.

Wow! That's crazy.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, MNstorms said:

Wow! That's crazy.

Yea. Big disclaimer between today and April 26-27, 2011 event is that day had an early morning MCS roll through that wrecked the power infrastructure. That significant reduced the capability to warn residents of the afternoon activity, and hampered damage assessment operations. 

[nwohweather]

Yea. Big disclaimer between today and April 26-27, 2011 event is that day had an early morning MCS roll through that wrecked the power infrastructure. That significant reduced the capability to warn residents of the afternoon activity, and hampered damage assessment operations. 

It also put down a nice boundary

[Cheeznado]

There are a lut of storms interfering wuth each other, the HRRR reflacts this. Could be a bit of an underperformer today.

[yoda]

Mesoscale Discussion 0200
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...extreme southeast Mississippi into much of western
   and central Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 151619Z - 151745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon,
   including the potential for multiple intense, destructive tornadoes.
   A Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be issued in
   the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, including supercells, continue to
   increase in coverage and intensity over in MS with the rapid
   approach of a potent mid-level trough. A pronounced 500 mb speed max
   will glance the region to the west, promoting the maintenance of
   ongoing storms, while also contributing to adequate deep-layer
   ascent for the development of new supercells in warm-sector
   confluence bands. As this occurs, these supercells will mature in a
   moistening low-level airmass, with dewpoints in the mid 60s F,
   overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates. MLCAPE should reach
   around 2000 J/kg amid 400+ m2/s2 effective SRH (driven by large,
   elongated/curved hodographs that are already evident via regional
   VADs). The anticipated parameter space will be highly supportive of
   tornadic supercells. The more discrete, dominant supercell
   structures will be capable of intense, destructive tornadoes, and
   violent tornadoes cannot be ruled out. A severe hail/wind threat
   should also accompany any robust, sustained thunderstorms. A
   Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch will be needed in the
   next hour to address the impending severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

There are a lut of storms interfering wuth each other, the HRRR reflacts this. Could be a bit of an underperformer today.

I think it may underperform in MS a bit as the radar has gotten incredibly messy but Alabama has clean air and is maxing on daytime heating, it may just be a bit further east 

[lilj4425]

Is this gonna bust like our snow storms do? So far I am not seeing much in the way of tornado activity.

[NorthArlington101]

Nothing like calling bust before noon local - never change!

[NorthHillsWx]

People calling bust when 13 deaths have already occurred from this outbreak is insane.

[NorthHillsWx]

Storms south of Jackson are starting to spin. Those need to be watched 

[yoda]

Mesoscale Discussion 0202
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

   Areas affected...parts of southern Louisiana into south and
   east-central Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...

   Valid 151653Z - 151830Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45 continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest threat for long-track intense to violent
   tornadoes through mid-afternoon is across portions of southern into
   east-central Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...A line of supercells is developing within a confluence
   band across eastern Louisiana and south-central Mississippi.
   Temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s ahead of these
   supercells within the next 1 to 2 hours which should aid the
   maturity of multiple supercells out of this confluence band. SPC
   Mesoanalysis shows STP values across the area are already 4 to 6 and
   these values are expected to increase through the afternoon as shear
   and instability increase further. As these supercells mature into
   peak heating, they will pose a threat for long-track intense to
   violent tornadoes.

   Of particular interest are 2 consolidating supercells entering St.
   Helena Parish in eastern Louisiana and Lincoln County in
   Mississippi. These storms already have echo tops over 50kft and are
   near the greatest instability. The 16Z LIX RAOB acts as a proximity
   sounding to these storms with MLCAPE over 2200 J/kg and a STP of 6.
   In addition, temperatures have warmed a few degrees since it was
   launched. These storms, with broken cloudcover and instability
   downstream in a volatile kinematic environment, have the greatest
   potential to realize this environment over the next 1 to 3 hours.

   ..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

[NorthHillsWx]

I think the storm near Greensburg needs a warning.

[vman722]

Storm over Kentwood is guna be the first one to produce 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, vman722 said:

Storm over Kentwood is guna be the first one to produce 

That is the definition of a classic looking Deep South supercell

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Storm over Kentwood is guna be the first one to produce 

Debris showing up. TOG. Good call 

[vman722]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is the definition of a classic looking Deep South supercell

Now has a debris sig just with a few scans. Here we go.

[SchaumburgStormer]

3 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Storm over Kentwood is guna be the first one to produce 

Already a CC drop on it 

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 minute ago, vman722 said:

Now has a debris sig just with a few scans. Here we go.

Has plenty of space to work with, this cell may end up being a problem all day

[NorthHillsWx]

Oh boy. That debris ball just exploded 

[NorthArlington101]

Storm E of New Hebron, MS, also might go soon. 

[NorthHillsWx]

The Osyka storm has a perfect looking environment ahead of it. This is not good 

[NorthHillsWx]

First PDS warning of the day. Major CC drop.