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March 14-16 2025 Severe Threat


kayman
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40 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I agree, but it does suck that AL & MS don't really have a subforum that's truly theirs. Technically they fall on the western states sub, but nobody posts there from the deep south 

This suforum covers those states literally right at the top it says 

Southeastern States

Covering Southern VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, and MS.

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49 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I agree, but it does suck that AL & MS don't really have a subforum that's truly theirs. Technically they fall on the western states sub, but nobody posts there from the deep south 

AL & MS bounced around subforums but they are here. As a native, I can say AL is a Southeastern state for sure.

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31 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

My bad, I misremembered. I do feel though they are a world a way climate-wise. Would be nice to have more posters from those states

That area really flocks to TalkWeather in my experience. They have a nearly 200 page thread over there already about this event. It looks a lot like the winter weather threads on this subforum IMO. LOL

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It is already started in MS

Tornado Warning


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

MSC015-051-053-083-133-150515-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0037.000000T0000Z-250315T0515Z/
Sunflower MS-Holmes MS-Carroll MS-Leflore MS-Humphreys MS-
1122 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...NORTHWESTERN HOLMES...WEST CENTRAL
CARROLL...LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTIES...

At 1122 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Swiftown, or 10 miles north of Belzoni, moving northeast
at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
         be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
         will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
         businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
         is possible.

The tornado will be near...
  Morgan City, Moorhead, Quito, and Itta Bena around 1130 PM CDT.
  Greenwood around 1140 PM CDT.
  Schlater around 1150 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8994 3318 9049 3328 9062 3371 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 220DEG 38KT 3333 9049

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

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A Mesoscale Discussion involving northern and western MS through early morning hours

MD 187 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0187
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

   Areas affected...southern Arkansas...far northern Louisiana...and
   into northern and western Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 36...38...

   Valid 150439Z - 150615Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 36, 38 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado risk is evolving across portions of southern
   Arkansas, far northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of supercells moving
   eastward across Arkansas at this time, several with ongoing/strong
   circulations evident.  The southern portion of this band -- over
   southern Arkansas -- will continue moving eastward across
   northwestern portions of Tornado Watch 38.  Meanwhile farther east,
   a supercell is crossing southern Leflore County in west-central
   Mississippi, which is also exhibiting low-level rotation. 

   Meanwhile, other/weaker convection is evolving south of this storm,
   where CAMs suggest potential for an increase in severe-storm
   potential over the next couple of hours.  Given the favorable
   environment (both kinematically and thermodynamically), expect risk
   to continue across portions of WW 38 for several hours across this
   region.

   ..Goss.. 03/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33949290 34289258 34438971 34068862 33138940 32058982
               32109123 33269371 33949290 

mcd0187.png

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19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Afraid this is going to be a very busy day for tornadoes. Maybe some storms this morning can help stabilize the atmosphere so things aren't bad later today.

I doubt that. There is no morning convection whatsoever in the high risk zone. The atmosphere is about to be fully primed for a very large outbreak.

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

While things are relatively quiet, any thoughts about tommorow in the Carolina's? Seems like the SPC outlook is pretty tame while local mets are hyping it up a bit. 

Local mets always hype of the severe weather and downplay any chance of snow. WRAL has a weather alert day any time we have anything more than rain.

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Decided not to chase, The morning CAMs suggest a line, embedded tornadoes are a given but combined with storm speeds and terrain/trees, it does not seem worth the effort. It looked like despite all the PDS warnings last night and the numerous damage reports, the number of fatalities was pretty low, thank goodness. Here in GA another nocturnal event. We seems to never have any afternoon severe situations any more.

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Decided not to chase, The morning CAMs suggest a line, embedded tornadoes are a given but combined with storm speeds and terrain/trees, it does not seem worth the effort. It looked like despite all the PDS warnings last night and the numerous damage reports, the number of fatalities was pretty low, thank goodness. Here in GA another nocturnal event. We seems to never have any afternoon severe situations any more.

We seem to be getting better at messaging the high events better, which is translating to lower fatalities.

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