kayman Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Brad Panovich of WCNC/Charlotte has already hinted at another multiday severe weather threat across the interior Southeast from Friday through Sunday. https://www.wcnc.com/mobile/article/weather/forecast/charlotte-weather-forecast-update/275-50501550 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Another St. Patrick's Day weekend storm... I remember 2008, that was "interesting" down here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, sarcean said: That thing looks like a 3 year old's crayon artwork. Lot's going on this week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 About as ominous as you will get from GSP this far out... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Here we go again. Hopefully the tornado siren doesn't wake me in the middle of the night again. So we have had 3 tornado sirens the last 5 mos, and they always happen between 2-4 am. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Focus of this one seems to be west of the Apps for now thank goodness 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Focus of this one seems to be west of the Apps for now thank goodness This looks like a non event in central Carolina’s. Euro and Canadian don’t even hardly rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This looks like a non event in central Carolina’s. Euro and Canadian don’t even hardly rain here I don't know if I can think of a single storm system over the past 6 months that didn't lose momentum once it got into our region. 6 out of the last 7 years have been above average rainfall, so this may buck the trend and be below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Hope we get the rain but the severe can stay away 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 8 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Focus of this one seems to be west of the Apps for now thank goodness The main threat on Saturday is bullseye on the Birmingham metro area and secondarily in the Metro Atlanta area. That's a densely populated region of about 8 million people between the two metros. That's where most of my immediate family resides. AL and GA posters should be on alert all day Saturday because this is looking to be a very serious severe threat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 This AI model is a bit more aggressive for the Carolinas. I love a good strong storm, but hoping that we can keep the high end stuff from materializing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 5 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said: About as ominous as you will get from GSP this far out... https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Not good! Wife and I are leaving Triad to spend weekend with daughter in Greenville. Leaving Saturday morning to go down. Planning to get there between 1 & 2 to try to miss heaviest of rains and storms. Have tickets to play that night. Coming back Sunday following lunch after everything clears out. Hopefully will miss the worst of the storms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 https://www.alabamawx.com/?p=276141 Now James Spann of WBMA/Birmingham is now speaking on the ominousness of this particular severe weather threat for AL. It is looking like Friday night through Saturday night will be a volatile weather period in the entire Greater Birmingham area from Cullman to Tuscaloosa to Clanton to Gadsden and Anniston/Oxford. Quote SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: A high-end severe weather risk is setting up for Alabama in the broad window from 10pm Friday through 3am Sunday. All of Alabama is in an “enhanced risk” as defined by SPC, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. There will be two primary rounds of thunderstorms. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING: The first batch of storms associated with this very dynamic storm system will move into Northwest Alabama Friday night. These storms will continue into Saturday morning over the northern half of the state; hail and damaging winds are possible along with an isolated tornado or two. SATURDAY AFTERNOON/SATURDAY NIGHT: This will likely be the “main show”. Storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Based on forecast parameters, a few strong/long track tornadoes will be possible (EF-2 or higher). These storms should be out of the state by daybreak Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 This is a forecast sounding from eastern MS from the 18Z NAM. Those are some scary parameters. Right now I would be surprised if there are not at least a couple of long-track strong tornadoes Saturday over MS and AL especially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 hours ago, Cheeznado said: This is a forecast sounding from eastern MS from the 18Z NAM. Those are some scary parameters. Right now I would be surprised if there are not at least a couple of long-track strong tornadoes Saturday over MS and AL especially. What’s your current feel for the threat level and timing for the Atlanta area? A friend of mine there is in semi-panic mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/12/2025 at 5:32 PM, Cheeznado said: This is a forecast sounding from eastern MS from the 18Z NAM. Those are some scary parameters. Right now I would be surprised if there are not at least a couple of long-track strong tornadoes Saturday over MS and AL especially. How does this compare to 2011 ? Because Atm it seems like it has the morning squall line on the models and the evening tornado threat just like in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 15 minutes ago, mclean02 said: How does this compare to 2011 ? Because Atm it seems like it has the morning squall line on the models and the evening tornado threat just like in 2011. It doesn’t compare to 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 19 minutes ago, mclean02 said: How does this compare to 2011 ? Because Atm it seems like it has the morning squall line on the models and the evening tornado threat just like in 2011. The two April 2011 outbreaks were generational events. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that we get into that type of outbreak. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Okay thank goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: The two April 2011 outbreaks were generational events. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that we get into that type of outbreak. To key off your remarks, whenever the data presents it self in the future, we will know for certain when an outbreak is going to go Super Outbreak. They have a classic, textbook anomalous appearance with every facet of model data we use to measure the environment. At this range, there’s typically no limiting factors. With this weekends outbreak, there are a ton of fail modes possible. Not to mention quite a few scenarios involving timing issues. Moisture return is one of the greater uncertainties right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/12/2025 at 5:32 PM, Cheeznado said: This is a forecast sounding from eastern MS from the 18Z NAM. Those are some scary parameters. Right now I would be surprised if there are not at least a couple of long-track strong tornadoes Saturday over MS and AL especially. Good luck chasers in the jungle with those storm motions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 4 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: To key off your remarks, whenever the data presents it self in the future, we will know for certain when an outbreak is going to go Super Outbreak. They have a classic, textbook anomalous appearance with every facet of model data we use to measure the environment. At this range, there’s typically no limiting factors. With this weekends outbreak, there are a ton of fail modes possible. Not to mention quite a few scenarios involving timing issues. Moisture return is one of the greater uncertainties right now. 100% agree. Is it possible that we wake up Saturday morning and go "well ****", absolutely. But right now there doesn't seem to be that potential lining up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 100% agree. Is it possible that we wake up Saturday morning and go "well ****", absolutely. But right now there doesn't seem to be that potential lining up. I sure hope you’re right! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Honestly think there should be a main board thread for tomorrow and Saturday, given their overall potential magnitude. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 That does not look good for the deep south tomorrow. Maybe it will end up being a bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 How much snow can we expect? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: How much snow can we expect? Not a fan of the sarcasm for an outbreak scenario that is going to be devastating for some. Maybe in the future such banter should be directed to the banter thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I’ll leave the 06z HRRR run here for posterity. I think the true analogue for how this will end up is 3/21/1932. Not sure what I would put the floor at, but it’s really high in my opinion. If instability is underdone like usual, I think we are in a world of hurt with the synoptic environment being as good as it is. Barring a morning MCS, which seems unlikely at this time, I think this one is a lock for a really bad day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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