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I also think politics becoming involved at the same time of the "Day In The Life" post came about caused a lot of strife and I blame one individual who is also no longer posting for that. I know that individual is dealing with a battle of their own and I wish them the best and hope they beat it, but as far as posting on a weather forum, good riddance. 

 

As for me? My personal life went directly to shit about three weeks ago. As a result I am currently in Ridge and Valley Huntingdon county. This place hasn't been too appealing knowing that the posting here is wet dreams for non-existent winter weather, and people still trying to figure out Bubbler's beef. I still read but if things don't improve in here in short order, I don't even know if I'll do that. 

 

Something needs to be resolved and I don't think Mike leaving is the fix. 

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1 hour ago, WmsptWx said:

I also think politics becoming involved at the same time of the "Day In The Life" post came about caused a lot of strife and I blame one individual who is also no longer posting for that. I know that individual is dealing with a battle of their own and I wish them the best and hope they beat it, but as far as posting on a weather forum, good riddance. 

 

As for me? My personal life went directly to shit about three weeks ago. As a result I am currently in Ridge and Valley Huntingdon county. This place hasn't been too appealing knowing that the posting here is wet dreams for non-existent winter weather, and people still trying to figure out Bubbler's beef. I still read but if things don't improve in here in short order, I don't even know if I'll do that. 

 

Something needs to be resolved and I don't think Mike leaving is the fix. 

Hope things turn around for you quick. 

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Everyone should try to stick around. We have a good group that is entertaining & informative. There is a role here for everyone. We all know each other’s tendencies & general personalities. The common ground is an interest in the weather. Some of us can push each other’s buttons at times, but most of the time we resolve it quickly and at times laugh it off & then move on to the next day.
Hopefully in a little time we can get the band back together.

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8 hours ago, WmsptWx said:

I also think politics becoming involved at the same time of the "Day In The Life" post came about caused a lot of strife and I blame one individual who is also no longer posting for that. I know that individual is dealing with a battle of their own and I wish them the best and hope they beat it, but as far as posting on a weather forum, good riddance. 

 

As for me? My personal life went directly to shit about three weeks ago. As a result I am currently in Ridge and Valley Huntingdon county. This place hasn't been too appealing knowing that the posting here is wet dreams for non-existent winter weather, and people still trying to figure out Bubbler's beef. I still read but if things don't improve in here in short order, I don't even know if I'll do that. 

 

Something needs to be resolved and I don't think Mike leaving is the fix. 

If I’m being honest the politics getting into the discussion was about the only thing in here that really made me feel any kind of way as far as getting heated. Not because it was brought up or necessarily from the differences in opinion but simply because the topic was beyond having a reasonable discussion, which obviously is a thing that goes way beyond the small confines of our subforum. I’ll refrain from rehashing further on that.  

Otherwise I feel the “discourse” in here is fairly tame compared to some of the stuff that occasionally flares up in the bigger subforums IMO. It’s obviously anyone’s choice whether they want or need to step aside and take a break and such, but I certainly don’t feel it’s necessary for anyone in here to do so from anything that’s been said recently. 

Hope everything works out for you. 

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I decided to delete my last post for @Itstrainingtime because it's not worth any more drama, and after reading it this morning I realized it panted a bad picture of Bubbler . I probably should have included that I don't feel he would do such a thing, although I was talking about some members and generalizing about the growing number of people that partake in the behavior I was speaking of, and not playing into it. I should have been clearer and more careful with my post. It also was just an attempt to convince the Trainer to stay and stop beating himself up for no good reason, but definitely would have pissed a a lot of people off Lol. If you did read that  @Bubbler86 I'm very sorry for lumping you into that.

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One eye to the sky and safe today dudes.

Screenshot_20250331_043039_Chrome.thumb.jpg.362f8f6bcddd7c3c23eccd94ecd0920e.jpg

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

...Northern Mid Atlantic...

  Although stronger low-level wind fields will tend to shift northeast of the region early today with the progression of the Canadian cyclone, deep-layer shear will remain sufficiently strong to support a risk for severe convection. It appears that low-level moistening and daytime heating will contribute to at least a narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization along the pre-frontal surface troughing by late this afternoon. This may provide the focus for increasing thunderstorm development, particularly as the instability axis is overtaken by the cold front by this evening. Isolated supercells are possible initially, posing a risk for severe hail, and at least some risk for a tornado, before locally damaging wind gusts become the more prominent potential severe hazard as convection increases in coverage.

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This is only concerning today's event. The full Nws forecast discussion can be found in the link at the bottom. 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...

Monday will be active, at least across the SErn third to half of the area. A strengthening surface low will track north of PA,dragging a trailing cold front through Central PA during the afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance indicates the pre-frontal low level jet and plume of deepest moisture will be over Southeast PA. Thus, the highest POPs and best chance of severe weather is targeted over that part of the state. RH profiles support midday breaks in the cloud cover over the eastern half of the forecast area, which is expected to fuel developing afternoon convection across primarily Southeast PA based on the latest CAMs.

Strong mid level wind/shear profiles, combined with EPS CAPES in the 500-1000J/kg range over the Lower Susq Valley, support the potential of severe weather Monday PM. The latest SPC Slight Risk area extends west into the Central Mtns, but HREF updraft helicity values target areas southeast of I-81 for the best potential of organized severe convection. Relatively modest instability, combined with strong forcing favoring linear rather than discrete convection, suggests damaging wind gusts are the main threat, with large hail/isolated tornadoes much less likely. The threat of severe weather should end around 00Z, as the cold front pushes southeast of the forecast area.

Ensemble mean qpf suggests rainfall Monday will range from 0.05 to 0.25 inches over most of Central PA. However, instability and much higher PWATs southeast of KMDT should support more substantial rainfall in that area, with heavy downpours potentially leading to localized amounts in excess of 1.5 inches based on some HREF members. This would be beneficial rainfall in a region that has been very dry. FFG values indicate significant flooding is very unlikely.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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55 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

This is only concerning today's event. The full Nws forecast discussion can be found in the link at the bottom. 

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...Monday will be active, at least across the SErn third to half of the area. A strengthening surface low will track north of PA,dragging a trailing cold front through Central PA during the afternoon and early evening. Latest guidance indicates the pre-frontal low level jet and plume of deepest moisture will be over Southeast PA. Thus, the highest POPs and best chance of severe weather is targeted over that part of the state. RH profiles support midday breaks in the cloud cover over the eastern half of the forecast area, which is expected to fuel developing afternoon convection across primarily Southeast PA based on the latest CAMs.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I actually was just going to ask if anyone knew if we might see some clearing skies this afternoon to fuel the storms, as there was no mention of sky conditions in my forecast.

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I have been trying to access the Hrrr this morning and unfortunately I keep encountering a server error but all the other tools 

4 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I actually was just going to ask if anyone knew if we might see some clearing skies this afternoon to fuel the storms, as there was no mention of sky conditions in my forecast.

 There should be some sun this morning, and I'm assuming there will be some burn off until things refire later today. I have not been able to access the hrrr all morning due to a server error, and It has a cloud forecasting feature.

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Happy Phillies Home Opener Day!! Go Phillies!
While the good news is it will be an unseasonably warm opener....the team may need to dance between some rain today and this evening. Some showers could pop up anywhere this afternoon, but the heaviest rain should hold off till after the game. While the timing may not be the best we do need the rain, and many spots could see at least an inch of rain with even a thunderstorm possible tonight. Much cooler the next couple of days after the cold front swings through tonight. We may see lows near freezing in many spots by Wednesday morning. We warm again to close out the week with more showers possible by Thursday and Friday.

image.png.5a09b355412bdf38a4b940293e3c77d0.pngimage.thumb.png.2eedcd62a3e49b6fa0ea21cf12bd2ab9.png

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Good morning everyone, from CTP WFO:

Quote

We'll be hosting an Advanced SKYWARN talk focused exclusively on Weather Radar tonight at 6PM. Who knows, maybe the instructors will even include real-time radar analysis as storms are likely ongoing in southeast PA. :grinning: Please help us spread the word to anyone who may be interested in attending!


Register for free: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/8416014288291547742


More information about all of our spotter talks is available at www.weather.gov/ctp/skywarn.

 

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Pretty active pattern setting up this week in terms of multiple opportunities for rainfall, so hopefully can start chipping away at the established drought conditions in the SE part of the state. 
 

Despite that, the focus of the heaviest QPF is squared in the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley. Significant flooding appears a pretty good possibility there. Those are some pretty prolific QPF numbers in the bullseye, even over a 7 day period. 
 

image.gif.e82f524531178f99144bfd74775d2edd.gif

 

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