Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,851
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Industrialspaces
    Newest Member
    Industrialspaces
    Joined

Central PA Spring 2025


Recommended Posts

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. 

Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The spc has dropped all 5% probabilities for Tuesday, but Wednesday looks potentially historic.  The obvious lack of movement answers some of my questions for yesterday, although the orientation and close proximity of the trailing portion of the front keeps severe possibilities alive in my mind. My other question is can we score some Tail end Charlie as the lp moves across Canada ?

1235091640_day48prob(7).gif.f41f8f8cf95c8ac7425b765291ad6e13.gif

 

 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

 NWS Storm Prediction Center   Norman OK

 0359 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

  ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED...

..DISCUSSION...

  Medium-range models appear to be in good agreement with overall evolution of the synoptic-scale pattern into the Day 7 (Saturday April 5) time period, when divergence in solutions increases.

Earlier in the period however, model consistency lends fairly highbconfidence that a widespread/potentially substantial outbreak of severe weather will evolve Wednesday/Day 4, from Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley, southwestward across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, and into eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma. Convection will likely be ongoing or developing early in the day, over western portions of the risk area -- from Wisconsin southwestward to Oklahoma/North Texas. As an upper low shifts northeastward across the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley through the day, and the cold front crosses Iowa/Missouri/eastern Oklahoma, steep lapse rates atop a moist/diurnally heating warm sector will support widespread  convective development.  

 With ascent along the front somewhat modest as stronger large-scale ascent focuses northward into the western Upper Great Lakes and into Ontario, storm mode may tend toward isolated storms, as opposed to more linear development. This, combined with flow that is forecast to weakly veer but dramatically strengthen with height, suggests a primarily supercell storm mode. In additional to very large hail (particularly with southward extent), widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes are expected, some possibly significant. Risk is expected to continue well into the evening and likely overnight, shifting slowly eastward across the Midwest and mid/lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the period. Day 5/Thursday, trailing portions of the cold front should become aligned east-northeast to west-southwest across the Ohio and mid  Mississippi Valleys and into the southern Plains, as the upper system shifts quickly across eastern Canada. While weak short-wave ridging will evolve atop the surface frontal zone in the wake of the departing system, daytime heating of a very moist boundary layer along and south of the front combined with strong flow aloft will support reinvigorated convection through the afternoon and evening hours, along with attendant severe-weather risk.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. 

Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

Mike, please don’t leave. From what he told me, it wasn’t a post but rather a reflection on time spent in general. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. 

Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

i-need-everybody-in-here-jared.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The backdoor cold front went a good bit further SW than earlier forecast. All of Chester County remains in the 40's at 10am. As I mentioned yesterday I suspected the NWS forecast highs for today (low 70's yesterday) may need to be trimmed by as much as 10 to 15 degrees. The NWS has started to move in that direction with most forecasts now having temperatures remaining in the upper 60's....those will likely come down further as the cool moist marine flows off the very chilly 44-degree ocean water temperatures. I actually suspect especially NE Chesco to get no higher than the 50's....a tough forecast for sure but clearly much chillier than yesterday. Some rain tonight with a better chance of rain arriving toward the start of tomorrow's Phillies Home Opener (Go Phils!) If they need to move the game to Tuesday it will be below normal temperatures but sunny with highs in the low 50's here in Chesco.

image.png.72940cf40c17bdc9c8c7acc450d182c1.pngimage.thumb.png.f6464a06ede89796f95f04e24c6d4c68.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. 

Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

Don't you dare step aside. Your input is valued here. If he got offended by that post, it's on him. I won't speak for all, but those "Day in the Life" posts to me are funny. I take no offense if I'm parodied in them. It's good natured fun among friends.

And you did step up and apologize, even though it wasn't really necessary.

 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I am the reason that Bubbler is no longer posting. He has not been active in our thread since my "Day In The Life" post. I did reach out and sincerely apologize but it was not acknowledged. It has been difficult for me to accept as I pride myself on building relationships and yet I destroyed one on here. I do hope he returns, I also told him that I would leave so that he could feel comfortable returning. 

Based on the comments from many in here, I do think it's the right decision for me to step aside. I am so very sorry to each and every one of you - that one post that I made changed everything in this thread. I feel terrible for what I did.

What in the hell did you say that caused Bubbler to go? I don't remember anything too harmful. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...