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Central PA Spring 2025


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BGM
340 AM update...

The short term is looking wintry as a long wave trough moves
into the Northeast with cold air advecting in. Models are honing
in on a quick moving 500 mb shortwave Sunday night that could
bring some widespread light snow. A strong 250 mb jet overhead
along with low level frontogenesis indicates that there could be
some banding with the overnight snow leading to some locally
higher snowfall rates though with the speed of the flow, the
high rates may only last a few hours before moving off to the
NE.
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I was asked to do an analysis of the drought conditions here in East Nantmeal, With the 0.08" of rain so far today here in East Nantmeal we have now recorded measurable rain for 6 straight days with 2.34" total during that time. We are starting to put a dent into the earlier drought conditions. From April 2024 thru today we have received 42.42" of rain with normal rain over this little over 1 year period being 51.39". So we are at 83% of normal rain with a rain deficit of 8.97" since April 1, 2024.

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Cloudy and much chillier today with temperatures struggling to get to the mid 50's. Normal high temperatures this time of the year are within a couple degrees of 60 here in Chester County. We will fall to well below those levels following a strong cold front passage on Monday. Highs Monday through Wednesday will remain in the chilly 40's before we moderate to near normal by the end of the week. We should see sub-freezing low temperatures on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning. Our average date of the last freeze here in Chester County is April 18th in the higher elevation spots and April 25th in valley spots. Rain chances will continue through Monday although the Phillies should have no issues with getting in today's game at 4pm. The best chance of heavier rain Sunday night into Monday morning. We could see an additional 0.50" to 1.00" of rain by Monday's AM commute.

image.png.ff1cd96fb547eb999e199566ace55e61.pngimage.thumb.png.ec53a95bbdba9cdba74dab8d6598c726.png

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9 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Well it's April, let's not forget to add wind into the mix this coming week. It wouldn't be a normal day without wind!

Yup, April can be a real sucky month.

But...without April, we wouldn't have April showers, and without April showers, we'd have no May flowers. Without May flowers, the pilgrims couldn't have come, and then we'd all still be in Europe.

So I guess there's that...lol

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Tonight, a subtle 500 mb shortwave moves into the Northeast
bringing another round of precipitation. Recent trends in
towards a flatter wave and a little farther south. There is
enough cold air in place and with the precipitation occurring
overnight, snow is the likely ptype. With the flatter wave, the
favorable dynamics for snow banding is less likely so snowfall
rates are expected to be on the lighter side, likely a half inch
per hour or less. Snow amounts were also shifted south so the
Southern Tier, Catskills, and NEPA are the areas that will see
some light snow accumulations tonight.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As the colder air gradually deepens later today and tonight
(with the Dendritic Growth Zone dipping into the upper quarter
of the cloud layer over the high terrain of the North and West),
showers will mix with or even change to wet snow across the
Northern Mtns, and to a lesser deg over the Laurel Highlands.

A relatively weak wave of low pressure will move northeast
along this nearly stalled out frontal boundary later tonight
and early Monday, bringing a 6 to 10 hour period of rain in
the south and mixed rain and wet snow across portions of the
Central Mountains and Middle Susquehanna Region.

Mixed precipitation or wet snow will likely overspread the
region from the Southwest this evening and continue overnight as
snow over the Mtns of Northern PA. Up to 2 inches of
accumulation is possible across the higher terrain of Northern
PA (with the target area appearing to be near and up to 25 NM
north of I-80 in NCentral PA), mainly at elevations over 1500
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Today will be our 7th straight day with measurable rain and tomorrow will make it 8 days. So far today we have received 0.07" of rain in EN. In addition to the showers, we will continue to turn colder with highs today close to 50 degrees a good 10 degrees below normal for today. This cold pattern looks like it will continue for at least the next week with the coldest day being Tuesday with high temperatures struggling to reach the mid 40's and a wind chill factor near freezing that afternoon. A freeze looks likely for most of the area on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

image.png.358d9d52042f799e1f485fcc212b242e.pngimage.thumb.png.45b0a756133bec75e3851b0b5523aa60.png

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