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Central PA Spring 2025


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Final winter stats for Lanco (MU) vs Elliott's Winter Forecast:

Total snowfall: 16.5" (prediction was 10-20") Snowfall for this past winter was LESS than last winter's 18.0")

Temps: Dec: 1.6 AN, Jan: 2.2 BN, Feb: 1.9 AN (prediction was 2+ degrees AN for the season)

MU forecast 3 weeks of extreme winter from approximately 12/20 through 1/10. We had just about 3 weeks of extreme winter though it came about 2 weeks later than he predicted on 11/1.

Overall: Perfect snow forecast, he went too cold for the season overall mainly due to January being even colder than he saw but he had the spirit of length of time correct.

@Blizzard of 93 you were sort of mocking his forecast as a major bust back in January in regards to snowfall but he ended up nailing it. 

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24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Final winter stats for Lanco (MU) vs Elliott's Winter Forecast:

Total snowfall: 16.5" (prediction was 10-20") Snowfall for this past winter was LESS than last winter's 18.0")

Temps: Dec: 1.6 AN, Jan: 2.2 BN, Feb: 1.9 AN (prediction was 2+ degrees AN for the season)

MU forecast 3 weeks of extreme winter from approximately 12/20 through 1/10. We had just about 3 weeks of extreme winter though it came about 2 weeks later than he predicted on 11/1.

Overall: Perfect snow forecast, he went too cold for the season overall mainly due to January being even colder than he saw but he had the spirit of length of time correct.

@Blizzard of 93 you were sort of mocking his forecast as a major bust back in January in regards to snowfall but he ended up nailing it. 

Mighty impressive. 

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Thers a high probability of a supernova this year and tonight is one of three dates astronomers have targeted.  Don't get to excited though. There's not going to be  much to see. 

Hold onto your hats! Is the 'blaze star' T Corona Borealis about to go boom?

https://www.space.com/the-universe/stars/hold-onto-your-hats-is-the-blaze-star-t-corona-borealis-about-to-go-boom

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Final winter stats for Lanco (MU) vs Elliott's Winter Forecast:

Total snowfall: 16.5" (prediction was 10-20") Snowfall for this past winter was LESS than last winter's 18.0")

Temps: Dec: 1.6 AN, Jan: 2.2 BN, Feb: 1.9 AN (prediction was 2+ degrees AN for the season)

MU forecast 3 weeks of extreme winter from approximately 12/20 through 1/10. We had just about 3 weeks of extreme winter though it came about 2 weeks later than he predicted on 11/1.

Overall: Perfect snow forecast, he went too cold for the season overall mainly due to January being even colder than he saw but he had the spirit of length of time correct.

@Blizzard of 93 you were sort of mocking his forecast as a major bust back in January in regards to snowfall but he ended up nailing it. 

They made a good call on the snow, but we just missed out on a few events that could have padded the stats. There was plenty of cold air around this year, but the lack of moisture continued to be an issue.

MDT finished -2.2 in average temps for Met Winter. The coldest Met Winter in 10 years.

Lol, MU must be located on a heat island similar to where you & @canderson live. How the heck did MU finish above normal in December & February?

IMG_9456.jpeg

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So much for keeping it well south. To no surprise  5% probs have been creepin  north for this system every few updates over the last few days . There is still a lot of uncertainty to be worked out in coming days. image.png

Day 5/Monday, models begin to differ more substantially with respect to surface frontal location -- particularly with northern extent. The GFS depicts the front as extending from New England southwestward to the Texas Coast Monday morning, while the ECMWF places it from Lower Michigan to coastal Texas. By late afternoon,the GFS shows the front reaching the New England coastal area and Mid-Atlantic region, focusing the primary severe threat from the Mid-Atlantic area southwestward. Meanwhile, some risk could extend as far north as the Lower Great Lakes region/central Appalachians per the ECMWF's deterministic forecast. At this time, will keep the Day 5 risk area focused from the Mid-Atlantic region to the lower Mississippi Valley, though adjustments/refinements to the area over the next several days will likely be required.

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21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They made a good call on the snow, but we just missed out on a few events that could have padded the stats. There was plenty of cold air around this year, but the lack of moisture continued to be an issue.

MDT finished -2.2 in average temps for Met Winter. The coldest Met Winter in 10 years.

Lol, MU must be located on a heat island similar to where you & @canderson live. How the heck did MU finish above normal in December & February?

IMG_9456.jpeg

Furthermore, MU’s rough average Met Winter temperature for the 3 monthly departures that you listed above would be an average of +43.

His prediction of +2 for the season was a bit off if we’re being technical (which I know that you appreciate…lol).

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They made a good call on the snow, but we just missed out on a few events that could have padded the stats. There was plenty of cold air around this year, but the lack of moisture continued to be an issue.

MDT finished -2.2 in average temps for Met Winter. The coldest Met Winter in 10 years.

Lol, MU must be located on a heat island similar to where you & @canderson live. How the heck did MU finish above normal in December & February?

IMG_9456.jpeg

It was all about the night time low temps.

For all of my life I have always been colder than MDT for low temps. The only exceptions are special situations involving a cold front that came through MDT but not through my area yet OR a winter storm situation where warm air invades my area quicker off the ocean. Outside of that, I'm going to be a few degrees colder than MDT 95% of the time. For whatever reason, this winter MDT was running consistently about 3-5 degrees colder than down here almost every night. No idea what changed, but that's where the difference happened. 

My original point was much more specific to snowfall because you were calling a bust for Elliott prematurely and it came back to get you. :)  

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It was all about the night time low temps.

For all of my life I have always been colder than MDT for low temps. The only exceptions are special situations involving a cold front that came through MDT but not through my area yet OR a winter storm situation where warm air invades my area quicker off the ocean. Outside of that, I'm going to be a few degrees colder than MDT 95% of the time. For whatever reason, this winter MDT was running consistently about 3-5 degrees colder than down here almost every night. No idea what changed, but that's where the difference happened. 

My original point was much more specific to snowfall because you were calling a bust for Elliott prematurely and it came back to get you. :)  

Maybe we get another April of 82 event next month to up the seasonal snow totals?

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On 3/24/2025 at 5:11 PM, Yardstickgozinya said:

Exactly my point. You're counting up a loss/win for a forecast that never existed outside of social media. I don't buy into most of this winter stuff either, but I at least have some grasp on how this all works. Can you tell me who how and with what  that 8-14 day forcast you posted was created?  I thought you didn't buy into  any forecast. You're a very complicated and complex individual.

Just as I said we were not going to get any of that snow. I hate the fact the models are this garbage but they are people need to face the facts 

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Just now, Voyager said:

Interesting how as the forecast temperature has gone up for Saturday, so has the wind speed. At first it was 20 mph gusts, then it was 26 mph. Now, look...

Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

I’ve officially had enough of the wind this year already. This week was my breaking point.

It’s actually remarkable when there is Not any wind at any given time, Lol!

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’ve officially had enough of the wind this year already. This week was my breaking point.

It’s actually remarkable when there is Not any wind at any given time, Lol!

It's ridiculous. I don't remember it being THIS windy THIS MUCH even just a few years ago. Winter and early spring usually feature some high wind days, but the past few years, and this one even moreso, have been excessive.

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A bit warmer today before our first 70 degree plus day of the year tomorrow across many of the higher spots across the area. In fact, tomorrow will be our warmest day here in East Nantmeal since the 73-degree reading back on November 7th. Still mild through Monday before a turn to cooler on Tuesday. Some showers are possible this evening, but a better chance of rain arrives Sunday night into Monday night. The Phillies home opener on Monday may be delayed till Tuesday.

image.png.a36d7e5ee96efd78fdb7b641fdc9d8a5.pngimage.thumb.png.72308f3dc8f16c5c5d98d366e23bd535.png

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9 hours ago, canderson said:

I think MDT hits 82 Saturday. Bot sure the record high but it has to be close. 

86 from 1945 is the number to beat.  Tough.

 

12 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They made a good call on the snow, but we just missed out on a few events that could have padded the stats. There was plenty of cold air around this year, but the lack of moisture continued to be an issue.

MDT finished -2.2 in average temps for Met Winter. The coldest Met Winter in 10 years.

Lol, MU must be located on a heat island similar to where you & @canderson live. How the heck did MU finish above normal in December & February?

IMG_9456.jpeg

Always remember, MDT compares monthly means to the most recent 30-year climate normal period, whereas MU compares against its entire period of record, leading to MU always having more positive extreme departures.  It's as simple as not being an apples-to-apples comparison. 

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44 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

86 from 1945 is the number to beat.  Tough.

 

Always remember, MDT compares monthly means to the most recent 30-year climate normal period, whereas MU compares against its entire period of record, leading to MU always having more positive extreme departures.  It's as simple as not being an apples-to-apples comparison. 

Thanks, something seemed off with how cold the rest of our region was this Winter.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks, something seemed off with how cold the rest of our region was this Winter.

No problem.  But what @Itstrainingtime said about MDT being noticeably cooler this particular season than surrounding areas was also true and certainly played a role this season.  We'll have to see if that's a discrepancy that plays out again in future years or was more of a one-time deal. 

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After our below normal temperature winter across the county we have now seen a much warmer than normal March. Through today we are at the 25th warmest March since 1893. With warmer days before we finish the month we could finish close to a top 10 warm Month. Below is the average temperature trend line for all March months since 1893. Average temperatures have clearly not changed much over the past 132 years across the area.

image.thumb.png.2beed1990a87a3b941526548090e1c8c.png

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image.png.c4819a1315371646237dd7b5e0c9f94c.png

Discussion

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

CORRECTED GRAPHIC

 

   ...DISCUSSION...

   Widespread storms and at least some attendant severe risk will be ongoing at the start of the Day 4 period (Monday March 31) -- with the band of convection likely extending along the west slopes of the Appalachians initially. Diurnal destabilization along and east of the mountains remains a question, particularly with northward extent into the Northeast, and thus the northern periphery of the risk area remains in question -- in what will likely be a very low CAPE/high shear environment -- suggestive of damaging gusts being the primary concern over northern portions of the area.   Farther south, greater CAPE is expected, particularly from the Carolinas into the central Gulf Coast states. Here, an all-hazards risk is forecast to continue from the Day 3 period into Day 4.  Storms/severe risk will shift eastward with time, crossing the East Coast states through the afternoon and evening, before clearing the coast overnight.

 

   

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