mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 11:11 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:11 AM Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. otoSndrpes7h7u2hgc15009lm4a18h1ccc35fa11t00c3166m4lg3c7m32cf · Like I said over a week ago ...its over!! *** WXRISK IS NOW IN SPRING MODE *** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Wednesday at 11:12 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:12 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Wednesday at 12:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:10 PM When the backdoor cold front came through last evening, my temp dropped from 59.4 to 51.7 in less than 5 minutes from 9:57PM to 10:02PM. Kind of cool to see. The temp had held steady at 59 for 3 hours prior to that and then only slowly dropped thereafter, reaching 40.1 this morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted Wednesday at 01:05 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:05 PM Low of 27 this morning. Set a record with 75 degrees yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: When the backdoor cold front came through last evening, my temp dropped from 59.4 to 51.7 in less than 5 minutes from 9:57PM to 10:02PM. Kind of cool to see. The temp had held steady at 59 for 3 hours prior to that and then only slowly dropped thereafter, reaching 40.1 this morning. Did you get wind from that? CTP mentioned gusts into the low 30a with the passage but we got nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:22 PM Yo: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted Wednesday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:37 PM 5 hours ago, canderson said: Did you get wind from that? CTP mentioned gusts into the low 30a with the passage but we got nothing at all. Man, if we did I wasn't aware of it - must not have been too strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:52 PM Still not many details for Sunday but the spc has expanded the slight risk coverage nort and a slight tick west in PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Thursday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:23 AM 61 for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Thursday at 10:00 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:00 AM SPC AC 130600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected across much of the Mississippi Valley, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Widespread damaging winds (some greater than 65 kt), several tornadoes (some strong),and large hail will all be possible. ...Synopsis... An intense cyclone will develop from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this system rapidly deepens, an intense jet streak (100+ kt at 500 mb) will overspread the Ozarks and Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a large area covering much of the MS Valleyvicinity will see 850-700 mb southwesterly flow around 65-80 kt.Southerly low-level flow will transport mid 50s dewpoints as far north as IA/northern IL (decreasing with northward extent across the Upper Midwest). Richer boundary layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will be confined to the Lower MS Valley and Deep South/TN Valley,though near-60 F dewpoints may reach the MS/OH River confluence.Rapidly developing convection is expected to develop by late afternoon from near a surface low over eastern NE and arcing east/southeast along a dryline into the Ozarks. Convection will develop northeast across the Mid-MS valley, with additional storms develop with southward extent into the Mid-South and TN Valley during the nighttime hours. ...Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Lower OH/TN Valleys... Cold temperatures aloft near the main upper low will support steep midlevel lapse rates. While boundary moisture will be modest, MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. This will support rapid storm development amid intense deep-layer shear. Heating ahead of the dryline also will support some boundary layer mixing and steepening of low-level lapse rates. As a result, a rapidly developing QLCS is expected. Convection will shift east/northeast into the nighttime hours. Given fast storm motion and the intensity of deep-layer flow,swaths of significant wind gusts (greater than 65 kt) are anticipated over a large part of the Mid-MS Valley. A gradual weakening of convection is expected after midnight with north and east extent. With southward extent from parts of eastern MO/western IL into theMid-South, some potential for a mix of linear convection and supercells appears possible. Vertical shear will support tornadoes within linear convection. The environment will especially be favorable for strong tornadoes with any supercells that develop. This activity may develop a little later than initial convection further north, with much of the threat being after dark from east-central MO/west-central IL southward to western TN. Given the intensity of maximum gusts expected, and widespread coverage of damaging gusts, a Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been included for portions of the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. ...MS/AL/TN Overnight... Persistent southerly low-level flow will bring mid to possibly upper 60s F dewpoints northward into the TN Valley overnight. Neutral to modest height falls are expected and a persistent, strong low-level jet will overspread the region. Forecast soundings indicate very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, which would support intense supercells. Forcing mechanisms will be somewhat modest over the region, which may limit convective coverage, and a somewhat more conditional risk. However, any storms that develop within this environment overnight will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging gusts. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity... The severe risk will become more marginal into MN/WI/MI. Strong deep layer flow will overspread the region and any convection will pose a risk of strong gusts. An additional risk for hail also will exist,especially with any elevated convection near the warm front overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Thursday at 10:12 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:12 AM SPC AC 130729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday from the central Gulf coast states/Deep South into the Ohio Valley. Significant tornadoes (focused across the South), swaths of damaging gusts, and hail are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough over the Plains will eject east toward the MS Valley. Strong southwesterly mid/upper flow (with a 500 mb jet streak near 100 kt)will overspread the Lower MS Valley/Mid-South vicinity by 00z, and continue east/northeast overnight into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. An intense south/southwesterly low level jet greater than 60 kt is forecast to overspread the central Gulf coast/DeepSouth into the TN/OH Valley during the late afternoon and nighttime hours. Rich Gulf moisture with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s is expected to be focused over LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, and possibly as far north as Middle TN and far western GA. 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will extend north into the Ohio Valley. This should support a widespread risk for severe storms across much of the central into the southeastern U.S. Saturday into early Sunday. ...Deep South/TN Valley vicinity... Forecast guidance has generally trended toward less widespread precipitation coverage Saturday morning as stronger height falls are not expected until late morning/early afternoon as the Plains trough ejects and a surface low begins to develop over the Mid-South. Persistent strong southerly low-level flow will allow for a moisture-rich boundary layer that should remain relatively pristine across southeast LA into southern/central MS/AL before convection develops by midday. Forecast soundings show cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop this moist boundary layer, leading to MLCAPE values perhaps approaching 2000 J/kg (decreasing with northward extent in Middle TN). Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid moderate instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells.Significant tornadoes, damaging gusts and large hail will be possible through the afternoon and spreading into AL during the evening/nighttime hours. Additional convection is expected to develop along an eastward-advancing cold front during the afternoon and into the overnight. An organized line of storms will pose a risk for damaging wind swaths and tornadoes across northern MS/AL into TN, eastward into GA and the western Carolinas overnight. ...Ohio Valley... Very strong deep-layer flow will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with some convection possibly ongoing from southeast Lower MI into western/central KY. The extent of severe potential is uncertain and dependent on how much precipitation occurs early in the forecast period. Too much convection early in the day could largely limit destabilization and temper the overall risk. However, if less convective contamination occurs, greater destabilization could occur ahead of a deepening surface low lifting northeast from the Mid-South to OH during the evening. Given the strength of deep-layer flow at least some risk of strong/damaging gusts within bands of thunderstorms should occur through Saturday night. ..Leitman.. 03/13/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted Thursday at 10:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:19 AM A large-scale upper trough near the MS Valley Sunday morning will develop east to the Appalachians by early Monday. Strong deep-layer south/southwesterly flow on the eastern side of the upper trough will overspread much of the eastern U.S. Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning from the Upper OH Valley into GA and northern FL. This activity will move into a moist airmass, characterized by 60s F dewpoints from north FL toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity (50s F dewpoints further north into PA/NJ). Instability will be greatest where deeper boundary layer moisture is forecast, but given intense deep-layer flow, organized convection is expected with even very modest instability. While linear convection producing damaging gusts will be the main hazard for much of the region, tornado potential will exist where sufficient boundary layer moisture exists, most likely from the Carolinas southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Thursday at 10:22 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:22 AM We see more budding warmth in PA over the next 5 weeks with at least 21 of the next 35 days featuring highs above average. We see limited chill with no more than 4 days featuring highs 8º or more below average. Several opportunities for rain, but not a drought-buster for SEPA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Thursday at 10:24 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:24 AM https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/pfbid0aKfy4HZjZAL6c6krPwS4mfi3uE46y65KxVhCsZfLfQidYYK7jbxF6topRTQDX32jl?notif_id=1741840650401884¬if_t=notify_me_page&ref=notif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Thursday at 11:16 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:16 AM 53 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: We see more budding warmth in PA over the next 5 weeks with at least 21 of the next 35 days featuring highs above average. We see limited chill with no more than 4 days featuring highs 8º or more below average. Several opportunities for rain, but not a drought-buster for SEPA I’ve seen forecasts the exact opposite of this for the next month… Who’s right? No one knows… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:52 AM The 0z & 6z GFS say we might not be done with Winter weather chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted Thursday at 12:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:07 PM We see more budding warmth in PA over the next 5 weeks with at least 21 of the next 35 days featuring highs above average. We see limited chill with no more than 4 days featuring highs 8º or more below average. Several opportunities for rain, but not a drought-buster for SEPAWe need a drought buster. Every time it gets a bit windy we have elevated fire risk statements go out. What I wouldn't give to get a nice 2"-3" soaker, followed by cut of low and east wind for another week giving us another 1"-2"Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted Thursday at 12:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:42 PM Low of 39. Backdoor cold front season is upon us. Sunday late afternoon potential looks quite.......interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’ve seen forecasts the exact opposite of this for the next month… Who’s right? No one knows… This doesn't coincide with JB's expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:14 PM 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: We need a drought buster. Every time it gets a bit windy we have elevated fire risk statements go out. What I wouldn't give to get a nice 2"-3" soaker, followed by cut of low and east wind for another week giving us another 1"-2" Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk Who knows it could happen in April that we get 2-3 in rains that could cause flooding issues. Happened a few times in the last several years. But in could remain dry. So anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted Thursday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:47 PM The usually reliable NAM suite that sniffs out backdoor fronts and temperature busts with cold air damming situations surprisingly did terrible yesterday and today. Prior runs all showed cloudy and temps stuck in the 40s for most east of the mountains for yesterday and today. Meanwhile, mostly sunny and 56° here in Lebanon. A rare bust as normally its the other models too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 06:56 PM The sun just broke out here finally at 3, where it's 53. Sunday looks kinda rough, esp the more S/E you go in PA. But even if you miss the QLCS, very strong S winds will be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:03 AM 18z GFS has a snow chance for us this time next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Today https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Saturday https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Sunday SPC AC 140729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail, severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes, are expected on Sunday across parts of the Atlantic Coastal States. ...Atlantic Coastal States... A mid-level trough will move eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes on Sunday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the southern and central Appalachians.Ahead of this feature, a south-to-north corridor of low-level moisture will be in place early in the day in the lee of the Appalachians, from Georgia north-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints along this corridor should be mostly in the 60s F. Along the western edge of this moist airmass, thunderstorms appear likely to be ongoing at the start of the period. The storms are forecast to move eastward from the higher terrain of the Appalachians into the lower elevations during the day. Ahead of the storms, some destabilization is forecast. ECMWF forecast soundings near the moist axis suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range Sunday afternoon. In addition to the instability, strong deep-layer shear is forecast across most of the region due to the presence of the mid-level jet. As this feature moves to the east of the spine of the Appalachians, deep-layer shear is forecast to gradually increase. This will be favorable for a severe threat, associated with the stronger multicell line segments and/or rotating storms. Wind damage will be most favored along the leading edge of the faster-moving lines. Cells that remain discrete, and move into areas where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is locally maximized, could become supercellular. Supercells will likely have potential for severe gusts and isolated large hail. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible, with the greatest tornado threat concentrated along and near the low-level jet during the afternoon, from the Carolinas into Virginia. Further north into the Hudson Valley, severe storms will also be possible. However, forecast instability in the Hudson Valley is less, suggesting the severe threat should remain marginal and more solated. ..Broyles.. 03/14/2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Low of 35. National high of 100 at Faith Ranch, TX and low of -6 near MacKay, ID. Happy Friday, all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 11 hours ago Author Share Posted 11 hours ago Not sold on much severe in the LSV Sunday - clouds might not let anything destabilize. But the winds will still be fierce and a squall line can still occur even if not officially severe. I don't know the true definition of a derecho, but this evening in Missouri/Iowa/Illinois seems like a derecho event is going to occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago We continue to run a few degrees above normal this week and now into the weekend. After sunshine today the weekend looks cloudy with rain chances ramping up by Sunday. We certainly can use some rain, so our fingers and toes crossed! Beautiful start to next week with spring like temperatures in the 60's for much of the week. Beautiful down here at Phillies Spring Training 81 and Sunny today! Go Phillies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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