TheNiño Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 MDT got even bigger on the latest D1 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 4 minutes ago, nvck said: MDT got even bigger on the latest D1 outlook Parts of Alabama are in the moderate day 1 and high day two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 47 minutes ago, Powerball said: URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 31 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Iowa Eastern Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread rapidly north-northeastward this afternoon and evening, while posing a threat for widespread severe/damaging winds. The strongest wind gusts could reach 80-90 mph on an isolated basis. Some hail and perhaps a tornado could also occur if a supercell can form and be sustained later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Lincoln NE to 50 miles north of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 30... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 19055. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I’m giad it’s not but I was expecting this to be a PDS watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 32 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Western Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 90 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will move very quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. Widespread severe/damaging winds are the main threat this afternoon, with gusts potentially reaching up to 80-90 mph. The tornado and large hail threat is expected to increase later this evening, with sustained supercells potentially posing a threat for multiple strong tornadoes as moisture returns northward across Arkansas into Missouri and Illinois. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Quincy IL to 15 miles east southeast of Russellville AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Just now, TheNiño said: I’m giad it’s not but I was expecting this to be a PDS watch. It's about as close as you can get without it being PDS. 90/70 TOR and WIND probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 22 minutes ago, TheNiño said: I’m giad it’s not but I was expecting this to be a PDS watch. I feel like there are questions on moisture return at the moment as to why SPC didn’t go PDS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 6 minutes ago, Sydney Claridge said: I feel like there are questions on moisture return at the moment as to why SPC didn’t go PDS. Atmosphere is still somewhat worked over from the morning / early afternoon convection. Also, low level flow, while sufficient, isn't the most ideal for a PDS tornado setup. That said, to your point about moisture, that should improve as the afternoon/evening progresses (which should also correspond with an increase in storm coverage / intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 That storm west of Des Moines looks like it’s got some nasty hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 38 minutes ago, Powerball said: Atmosphere is still somewhat worked over from the morning / early afternoon convection. Also, low level flow, while sufficient, isn't the most ideal for a PDS tornado setup. That said, to your point about moisture, that should improve as the afternoon/evening progresses (which should also correspond with an increase in storm coverage / intensity). Those storms were elevated and did not appreciably change the environment very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 14 Author Share Posted March 14 Things seem to be progressing according to modeling so far, the nighttime timing of the tornadoes tonight is gonna make search and rescue if necessary a pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Things seem to be progressing according to modeling so far, the nighttime timing of the tornadoes tonight is gonna make search and rescue if necessary a pain Dare I say the models did a fantastic job with this? Pretty consistent a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Latest HRRR has a huge updraft helicity track by St. Louis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 It's a shame dew points mixed out so bad. Hrrr modeled that well. Moisture so shallow and we mixed pretty deep today. Went from 55 dew earlier to 44. Showing recovery possible last second. Feel like best tornado threat will be I72 south and likely I70 south. Hoping line organizes more so I can at least get damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 For a week all models have shown a strong line moving through eastern Iowa this evening. So far, the line approaching my area is weak crap. The 40s dews are not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 What a beast of a storm in western MO right now. Not bad considering humidity is pretty meh at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Can’t quite tell on this scan, but might have a TDS on that cell in SW MO. edit- just updated to radar confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 44 minutes ago, Chinook said: Latest HRRR has a huge updraft helicity track by St. Louis It follows that same current tornado warned storm as well. Btw on a local side note, you feel that 11° temperature jump here? KDUH was showing the lake breeze over Toledo was overpowered, went from 63 to 74 in 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 For a week all models have shown a strong line moving through eastern Iowa this evening. So far, the line approaching my area is weak crap. The 40s dews are not helping.counter-point: that weak looking stuff is still producing severe level winds/damaging, due to the environment it’s in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Can’t quite tell on this scan, but might have a TDS on that cell in SW MO. edit- just updated to radar confirmed Cruising at a middling 65mph 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 The radar is also indicating Tennis Ball-sized hail with that tornado-warned cell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Can’t quite tell on this scan, but might have a TDS on that cell in SW MO. edit- just updated to radar confirmed There’s definitely debris in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Tornado in progress E of Marshfield MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 4 minutes ago, nwohweather said: There’s definitely debris in the air Yeah a lot more defined now, the first scab I glanced at had enough artifact that I couldn’t be sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 https://x.com/KevinLighty/status/1900695849006465376?t=rEdkbxMy4RdMU9qaT86ajQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, Powerball said: https://x.com/KevinLighty/status/1900695849006465376?t=rEdkbxMy4RdMU9qaT86ajQ&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Radar isn't looking as ominous as it did a few minutes ago on that cell. Wouldn't be surprised if the tornado lifted back up (for now), unless it's rain-wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Radar isn't looking as ominous as it did a few minutes ago on that cell. Wouldn't be surprised if the tornado lifted back up (for now), unless it's rain-wrapped. Would roll right through fort Leonard wood at its current path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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