Powerball Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 ^^^Replying to yourself (@A-L-E-K) is diabolical... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Nocturnal passage FTL. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12z CAMs are either showing or close to showing a tornado outbreak from E MO into central and S IL Friday evening/overnight. Multiple discrete elements embedded within the greater line in some truly ungodly shear. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Am I wrong in assuming we will experience a decent wind threat in the Chicago area tomorrow night? Full disclosure, I am rather novice with forecasting so mainly go off what others share in the forums but I am surprised there hasn't been as much activity here. Just curious, thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 5 hours ago, IWXwx said: Nocturnal passage FTL. Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right, here I am Silver lining - Day drinking for St Patrick’s Day on Saturday should be solid in these parts. 70 degrees… just have to hold on to your hat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 As Andy called out....Wow the 12z HRW V3 has some giant UH swaths. Been a while since I've seen swaths like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 LOT does mention a few tornadoes being possible tomorrow night but really looking like an intense wind event regardless of convection. Gusts around 60mph not out of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 21 minutes ago, pen_artist said: LOT does mention a few tornadoes being possible tomorrow night but really looking like an intense wind event regardless of convection. Gusts around 60mph not out of possibility. I lived right on the ocean in the SE for 30 years. I've had it with "wind events" lol. This season is starting just like last years. I'm too old to be running around 500-1000 miles to get a glimpse of one 20 miles away. I have graduated to a sit and wait chaser. If it comes it comes . (Plus there's just too many people out there now, it's ridiculous) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Have strong suspicion there will be a 15%/hatched tornado risk outlined at some point for tomorrow for parts of E MO, NE AR, central and S IL, and W KY (perhaps into W TN). Should the moisture be sufficient (and virtually every model is now showing this to be the case), very cold temperatures aloft, a very powerful shortwave trough blasting essentially right into the warm sector, and very strong wind fields favoring long-lived storms should yield at least a few significant/potentially long-tracked tornadoes in the region. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 To drive 4+ hours tomorrow afternoon to somewhere in western IL between the Quad Cities and St. Louis for what will likely be after dark, quasi-linear tornadic storms moving at warp speed, or not? That is the question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I am not a fan of night chasing at all so I’ll be sitting this one out. Storms are going to be moving way too fast. Just hoping for some night lightning and thunder here at home after dark. Even if they don’t exceed severe limits I’ll be happy. But man this does have pretty impressive markings for wind/tornados and I get the temptation. This one just isn’t for me even though it’ll likely be quite an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Have strong suspicion there will be a 15%/hatched tornado risk outlined at some point for tomorrow for parts of E MO, NE AR, central and S IL, and W KY (perhaps into W TN). Should the moisture be sufficient (and virtually every model is now showing this to be the case), very cold temperatures aloft, a very powerful shortwave trough blasting essentially right into the warm sector, and very strong wind fields favoring long-lived storms should yield at least a few significant/potentially long-tracked tornadoes in the region. Storm motions alone will yield long tracks at those interstate speeds. From a wind damage perspective tomorrow should be ridiculous, with those hurricane force winds being only a few thousand feet up we’ll see tons of truly severe gusts. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a high risk go up if discrete storms fire in an area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: To drive 4+ hours tomorrow afternoon to somewhere in western IL between the Quad Cities and St. Louis for what will likely be after dark, quasi-linear tornadic storms moving at warp speed, or not? That is the question. At those speeds it’s more like the storms are chasing you 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Wondering the likelihood of this possibly being classified as a derecho event? I’m unsure of the exact parameters for it to be considered one and I’m a pretty novice forecaster but I haven’t seen that word mentioned much in the discussions. It really seems to have real potential for that though, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 minutes ago, nwohweather said: At those speeds it’s more like the storms are chasing you Chasing in true midwestern fashion! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I'm just gonna sit in a lawn chair with a frosty and watch 'er roll in 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Incredible 00z HRRR run for tomorrow night. Really leaning towards this becoming a high impact event. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 15 hatched tor added in the D1 generally centered on St. Louis and I-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 \ 06z HRRR is even more dangerous around St. Louis into W IL. Extreme shear near these cells with more than enough instability to utilize it. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkess Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Hello, It's been awhile since I've posted but as the name implied, I've been lurking. I'm in SE Illinois. Could someone post an image of what to expect here? I've had that 'bad feeling' about these predicted storms for a few days or more. I'm homebound due to spine issues and feeling vulnerable. I can't believe this former storm lover is now fearful. Smh In addition, the 15th is the 100th anniversary of the 1925 tornado that devastated the area. Thanks for all you do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Praying for you my dude and the safe passage of them storms over your place 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkess Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 25 minutes ago, King James said: Praying for you my dude and the safe passage of them storms over your place Thank you. I have to wrangle some kitties into their travel cases. Seems they know well before anything pops up. It's hard to get a kitty stretched out like Garfield from under the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkess Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 I was born in sw Indiana but moved to California then central Indiana. I'm pretty sure I only remember 3 tornado warnings in central Indiana for decades. I moved back down here after divorce and it's amazing how much worse the weather is here. Unless it's been unusually violent everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Watched WGN weather before bed last night. Met said he thought maybe the enhanced risk area would be shifted south and away from the area with the future update. Wake up to see the enhanced area expanded north and now I’m fully in it. Wonder if it’s less about the models and more about the subjective interpretation of the models that makes our weather feel so unpredictable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Quite the northeast expansion on the enhanced and slight risk into my area. Now in the slight with a 5% tornado risk. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Think you absolutely need to consider a high risk for MO and W IL. 12z HRRR is a major tornado outbreak with multiple long tracked supercells. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 This could be one of those rare instances where we end up with multi-day high risk outlooks, in March at that.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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