cyclone77 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 71mph at Ottumwa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Cell in Mansfield Mo starting to get that look as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 First PDS watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I think the SPC has done a pretty great job with handling the watches so far, starting with severe watches, then a couple of non-PDS tornado watches, and now a PDS tornado watch as the threat clearly ramps up as semi-discrete supercells evolve across parts of northern AR and central/southeastern MO. The strongest forcing is across the Upper MS Valley with the strongest instability confined towards the Lower MS Valley. Activity that evolves across east central and southeastern MO, north central and northeast AR, central and southern IL, and western KY will be in the sweet spot of more moderate forcing and instability with extreme shear, giving an opportunity for semi-discrete cells to persist in a kinematic environment that supports strong tornadoes with sufficient (certainly not outstanding) thermodynamics. Activity in MS is more weakly forced and is playing out amid a moisture-rich low-level jet. While the storm mode is currently semi-discrete and the shear supports an intense tornado threat, low-level lapse rates are weak with the low-levels fairly moist. This could keep storms somewhat messy and keep many from taking off and taking full advantage of the low-level shear. While there is certainly a tornado threat (potentially strong) all the way into MS and northwestern AL this evening and tonight, the northwestern half of the PDS watch will probably be most under the gun with more uncertainty towards TN, MS, and AL. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Same cell from down south still rocking and rolling up 44 towards the STL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 That's curvy ah moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 As the models were indicating, everything is spinning as it approaches the STL metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Per the 00z sounding, there's still some weak capping down in MS, which is why the storms are struggling. That said, main show down there will be after midnight as the trailing shortwave out of TX pushes eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 I got some lightning, thunder and some gustiness, but overall a big dud for much of eastern Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Per radar velocity, those storms definitely seem to be producing some impressive straight-line winds as they push into STL, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: I got some lightning, thunder and some gustiness, but overall a big dud for much of eastern Iowa. you're not following reports, are you. 71MPH at the CID airport control tower. widespread 60-80mph reports in e ia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 this is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: you're not following reports, are you. 71MPH at the CID airport control tower. widespread 60-80mph reports in e ia. Really? Here in the city it was no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Really? Here in the city it was no big deal. 51MPH officially on OBS. Makes sense that things are not uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Really? Here in the city it was no big deal. It looks like the stronger cell tracked directly over the airport and through the west side of town. Not sure what side of town you're on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Large, likely violent tornado in progress near the MO/AR stateline near Bakersfield. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, andyhb said: Large, likely violent tornado in progress near the MO/AR stateline near Bakersfield. This is insane, going to crush charles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Confirmed tornado now near St. Clair, MO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 TDS southwest of STL near union 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: It looks like the stronger cell tracked directly over the airport and through the west side of town. Not sure what side of town you're on... I'm on the west side. The red cell moved right over my house, but it didn't produce anything noteworthy... maybe 50 mph? with some decent lightning and not much rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Just now, Powerball said: Confirmed tornado now near St. Clair, MO... Look at the debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 There may be a tornado as well near Pinckey, MO... EDIT: Confirmed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 2 minutes ago, WE GOT HIM said: Look at the debris Getting bigger, too. Moisture starting to feed into this line. Gonna get ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 If the Tor stays on the ground it is tracking right at the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 PDS warning for a large tornado further south in MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 12 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Getting bigger, too. Moisture starting to feed into this line. Gonna get ugly. Looks like it may have cycled and reformed SE of the last rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looks like it may have cycled and reformed SE of the last rotation Def did, big debris sig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Strong to violent tornado in the W STL suburbs right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Def did, big debris sig Correlation Coefficient is off the charts. Villa Ridge/Gray Summit area clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Strong to violent tornado in the W STL suburbs right now.It seems more compact as well than most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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