HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Lets get the ball rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 At this point, looks like a swing and a miss for anything overly interesting for this sub-forum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 On 3/10/2025 at 6:28 PM, Chicago Storm said: At this point, looks like a swing and a miss for anything overly interesting for this sub-forum. Expand Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night. Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 On 3/10/2025 at 7:26 PM, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night. Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures. Expand Yep, this will be another Dixie Alley special... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Could be quite a few severe wind reports over here in the DVN cwa with this. Lots of wind right off the deck so wouldn't take much to get severe gusts. With so much shear and vorticity with this system wouldn't be surprised to see a few DVN one scan wonder spinups along the advancing squall line. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 On 3/10/2025 at 7:26 PM, CheeselandSkies said: Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night. Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures. Expand Yeah I was originally thinking Illinois would get in on the action. It really deflated the last 24 hours. Still potential down south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Not directly "severe thunderstorm" related but several local mets are already hitting on the wind potential for this storm. My former coworker saying 55 to 60+ gusts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 On 3/10/2025 at 10:44 PM, cyclone77 said: Could be quite a few severe wind reports over here in the DVN cwa with this. Lots of wind right off the deck so wouldn't take much to get severe gusts. With so much shear and vorticity with this system wouldn't be surprised to see a few DVN one scan wonder spinups along the advancing squall line. Expand On the 18Z GFS it appears the moisture surges north a bit by around 03Z Saturday. After dark QLCS threats are always fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNiño Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 I’ll happen to be in the STL area for this. I’m keeping an eye on what could be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Saturday looking bigger than Friday for both the northern and southern modes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Looks windy and meh for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 It's only now at the tail end of its range, but the 12Z NAM at least keeps hope alive for something in possibly western Illinois on Friday. Moisture depth and low-level CAPE improve dramatically from 21-00Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 It's too bad a low of this strength has such meager moisture to work with. It'll probably still manage to spam QLCS tornadoes though. I'll be chasing regardless because I am so storm deprived. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 i'll take the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 3/9/2025 at 10:07 PM, sbnwx85 said: Way too early call of a 2 am thin squall line passage with scattered very isolated local wind damage reports. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Pretty large ENH and hatched areaon new Day 3 (Friday) 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 This line is going to race northeastward across eastern Iowa, will be in and out in a flash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 selling severe imby but models do seem p insistent on maintaining decent line strength as it races east despite obv timing issues curious how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 3/12/2025 at 1:13 PM, A-L-E-K said: selling severe imby but models do seem p insistent on maintaining decent line strength as it races east despite obv timing issues curious how it plays out Expand Not a ton of optimism for anything of note, but do assume we will get some solid boomers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 cincinnati area saturday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Timing has improved a bit over the past day or so. So, there's a bit more interest once again locally. However, there's still a lot of questions regarding moisture quality/depth and instability. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 On 3/12/2025 at 8:33 PM, Chicago Storm said: Timing has improved a bit over the past day or so. So, there's a bit more interest once again locally. However, there's still a lot of questions regarding moisture quality/depth and instability. Expand Try telling this to the crazies on X. They are salivating over the CSU model and acting like the severe threat will get to Erie and Buffalo. It is really annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Outbreaks on both Friday and Saturday on that 18z NAM run. The hodographs on Friday evening are just off the charts if enough moisture can get north. This is looking big. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Thinking there's going to be a lot of 70+mph wind reports coming out of the DVN area with this, especially along/south of I-80. Central IL really looking to get raked with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 NAM3k sounding from SC IL (Mt. Vernon area) for late Friday night 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Looks as though the lead shortwave that was supposed to "scrub out" some moisture from south and limit northwards moisture advection for friday isn't as strong as forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Really nasty 00z GFS/Euro run for MO into W IL on Friday. Enough moisture and very favorable hodographs with the trough punching right into the warm sector. The proximity of the ULL to the warm sector also means it is very cold aloft, you probably would only need something like 70/58 to get almost 2000 CAPE out of this. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Moderate risk: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/13/2025 at 6:09 AM, MidwestChaser said: Moderate risk: Expand I’m going to be on the road at 10pm Friday. That orange blob inching closer to the cheddar curtain hopefully stays back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 On 3/12/2025 at 1:13 PM, A-L-E-K said: selling severe imby but models do seem p insistent on maintaining decent line strength as it races east despite obv timing issues curious how it plays out Expand same, would take the 0z euro obv 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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