March 14-15 Severe Weather Event (Outbreak?)

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Lets get the ball rolling. 

 

[Chicago Storm]

At this point, looks like a swing and a miss for anything overly interesting for this sub-forum.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

At this point, looks like a swing and a miss for anything overly interesting for this sub-forum.

Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night.

Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.

[Powerball]

59 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night.

Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.

 

Yep, this will be another Dixie Alley special...

[cyclone77]

Could be quite a few severe wind reports over here in the DVN cwa with this.  Lots of wind right off the deck so wouldn't take much to get severe gusts.  With so much shear and vorticity with this system wouldn't be surprised to see a few DVN one scan wonder spinups along the advancing squall line.

[Floydbuster]

5 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, was pretty set on a chase Friday until about the 00Z suite last night.

Verbatim, LCLs aren't terrible if temps remain in the 60s even with low 50s dews (Winterset day blew my mind that was even possible with those kind of surface thermos), but GFS forecast soundings suggest things might stay capped at those temperatures.

 

Yeah I was originally thinking Illinois would get in on the action. It really deflated the last 24 hours. Still potential down south though.

[sbnwx85]

Not directly "severe thunderstorm" related but several local mets are already hitting on the wind potential for this storm. My former coworker saying 55 to 60+ gusts possible.

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Could be quite a few severe wind reports over here in the DVN cwa with this.  Lots of wind right off the deck so wouldn't take much to get severe gusts.  With so much shear and vorticity with this system wouldn't be surprised to see a few DVN one scan wonder spinups along the advancing squall line.

On the 18Z GFS it appears the moisture surges north a bit by around 03Z Saturday. After dark QLCS threats are always fun...

[TheNiño]

I’ll happen to be in the STL area for this. I’m keeping an eye on what could be an interesting day.

[nvck]

Saturday looking bigger than Friday for both the northern and southern modes

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looks windy and meh for MBY

[CheeselandSkies]

It's only now at the tail end of its range, but the 12Z NAM at least keeps hope alive for something in possibly western Illinois on Friday. Moisture depth and low-level CAPE improve dramatically from 21-00Z.

[fluoronium]

It's too bad a low of this strength has such meager moisture to work with. It'll probably still manage to spam QLCS tornadoes though. I'll be chasing regardless because I am so storm deprived.

[A-L-E-K]

i'll take the gfs

[sbnwx85]

On 3/9/2025 at 6:07 PM, sbnwx85 said:

Way too early call of a 2 am thin squall line passage with scattered  very isolated local wind damage reports.

[yoda]

Pretty large ENH and hatched areaon new Day 3 (Friday)

 

 

[hawkeye_wx]

This line is going to race northeastward across eastern Iowa, will be in and out in a flash.

[A-L-E-K]

selling severe imby but models do seem p insistent on maintaining decent line strength as it races east despite obv timing issues

curious how it plays out