Pittsburgh Spring 2025

[Ahoff]

Let's start the Spring discussion.

[TheClimateChanger]

Wow, this looks brutal. It has been above normal 19 of the last 20 months at Pittsburgh, and this would make it 25 of 26. JB seems skeptical but smart money is probably on this happening.

 

[Rd9108]

44 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, this looks brutal. It has been above normal 19 of the last 20 months at Pittsburgh, and this would make it 25 of 26. JB seems skeptical but smart money is probably on this happening.

 

Lmao two things, one Bastardi can't get shit right half of the time. Two that's a ridiculous forecast to even look at. We can't even predict a snowstorm 4 days out let alone what the temps will be like for the next 6 months. Odds are they will most likely be above normal since we seem to be in a cycle of above normal temps. 

[meatwad]

   Mesoscale Discussion 0151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern West Virginia...northern
   Virginia...western Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051919Z - 052115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail threat may increase with
   thunderstorm development this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating along a secondary cold frontal boundary
   located across West Virginia into western Pennsylvania has allowed
   for convective development over the last 30-60 minutes. Temperatures
   have warmed into the 60s ahead of this boundary, yielding around 500
   J/kg of SBCAPE to develop. Looking at the mid-levels, a 500 mb
   90-100 kt jet continues to move northward across the area,
   supporting 0-6 km shear around 90-100 kts. CAM guidance suggests
   further development is possible along the boundary through the
   afternoon. Given strong shear profiles, some loosely organized cells
   may pose a risk for damaging wind and hail. Convective trends will
   be monitored over the next couple of hours for potential watch
   issuance.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39938027 40838032 41578055 41928038 42037992 41967936
               41587829 41187804 40667792 40227778 39567774 39047784
               38577812 38147854 37937878 38127951 38578025 39368046
               39938027 

 

[north pgh]

Bust of storms today. I got some winds last hour over 40 mph. My temp went from 56 last hour to 47 now.

[PghPirates27]

Down to 39 degrees now. Max gust 26.3 

[Mailman]

Still three days away...

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Weekend severe weather potential and flooding potential.
- A brief cooldown Monday, with a warmup into mid-week.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

There is increasing confidence in the next disturbance passing 
through this weekend. The most likely timing remains, Saturday 
for the warm front, with a strong pressure gradient Saturday 
afternoon with enhanced low level flow in the warm sector. This 
will need to continue to be monitored for severe development, 
with ensemble plumes fairly confident on buoyancy, but unsure on
just how much. This might suggest a primary threat of damaging 
winds. The main cold front is most likely to pass late Saturday 
into early Sunday. Rainfall amounts are quite variable, between 
0.5 and 1.5 inches between the 25th and 75th percentile. 
Marginal flooding conditions are also possible as the cold front
slowly moves through. Synoptic winds are also forecast at 20 to
30 mph (25th to 75th percentile).

Behind the cold front, a brief cool down to near-normal is
expected with moderate confidence, followed by a warm-up back
above normal by mid-week.