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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion


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Most of the area received between 0.60” to 0.80” of rain with Nottingham recording 0.80”. Here in East Nantmeal we received 0.66” of rain we are now near normal for March and up to 70% of normal rainfall for the year through yesterday. We are starting to make some nice progress to ease our local drought conditions. Chillier today a bit warmer tomorrow before we turn chillier on Sunday. Next solid rain chances look to arrive toward Monday.

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On 3/19/2025 at 3:26 PM, Albedoman said:

gfs shit the bed already. 2-3 feet of snow gone -----That model needs to be shelved until we have a better non-progressive weather pattern. The 30 mph+  Santa Ana type winds return on Friday immediately drying out any rain we get on Thursday.  No water recharge into the ground except the first couple of inches of topsoil. Again, this .50 inch of rain is great for greening the yards and for spring bulbs but the groundwater table for water supply and base flows for the limestone streams are falling real quick as the trees start to bud.  The leaves will start to open in 3-4 weeks and then we are in real trouble as the uptake of any residual moisture in the soil is gone. NOAA and PADEP must issue a drought emergency for the LV before the water authorities do it on their own with rationing. The weather discussion  keeps saying beneficial rains are coming-- just like the 3 ft of snow on the GFS model but actually  .25 to .50  in rains are not really beneficial when we have drying wind advisory events right  behind the fronts. 

NJ is not the only area of the MT Holly region. The LV has not received a single 2 in rain event since August 18, 2024 and only a couple of single rainfall events barely over an inch since then .  We are going on below normal precip for 9 months now. Folks, that is a hell of drought.  The 2-3 inches of rain in NJ this past weekend killed the existing drought conditions along SE NJ with their sandy soils and above avg snowfall so far this year. Lets start hearing more about the million + people that live in the I-78 corridor and the daily brush fires in the weather discussions.  Thanks

This is all you need to know about how reliable NOAA is. The forecast called for heavy "La Nina" rains in the upper Ohio Valley. That didn't actually happen, but there was a miraculous 3 category drought improvement even though it the period from October 29 to the present has been much drier than normal. In fact, it was the driest on record [among years with complete data] at Wheeling, West Virginia. How does a drought improve by 3 categories during the driest stretch on record? I'm having trouble understanding how this is possible?

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October 29, 2024

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March 18, 2025

20250318_wfopbz_none.png

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5 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is all you need to know about how reliable NOAA is. The forecast called for heavy "La Nina" rains in the upper Ohio Valley. That didn't actually happen, but there was a miraculous 3 category drought improvement even though it the period from October 29 to the present has been much drier than normal. In fact, it was the driest on record [among years with complete data] at Wheeling, West Virginia. How does a drought improve by 3 categories during the driest stretch on record? I'm having trouble understanding how this is possible?

S5ou9lC.png

October 29, 2024

20241029_wfopbz_none.png

March 18, 2025

20250318_wfopbz_none.png

Just to show I'm not cherrypicking... here is Zanesville, Ohio.

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20th driest stretch on record [of 130 years]. However, 6 of the years above it are missing more than two weeks of data. Excluding those years as highly suspect, it's 14th of 124 years with sufficient data. Note a bunch of other years with more rainfall are also missing data, but we know those years had more rainfall even despite the missing data. How can this justify a 4, yes 4, category drought improvement?

IMO, the weekly Palmer indices are the better measure. 

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phd20250315-pg.png

 

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Some scattered light showers today followed by a solid freeze tonight and below normal temperatures tomorrow with highs only in the 40's. There is the chance of some snow showers on Sunday night changing to rain showers on Monday. It is warmer to start the week with highs near 60 degrees but then fall to close to a little below normal for much of the upcoming work week. Normal highs this coming week are in the mid 50's.

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Wopee drought getting worse. Less than a half of an inch all week. Fire conditions getting real bad with dry underbrush. When will padep noaa wake up?  Extreme  drought folks. By the way, i warned you about the  sinkholes  i-80 closed from sinkholes. Now i-287 has sinkholes. Drought monitor map is bs right now. They need to look at palmer indices

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This has been an odd March based on average. I don't think we've even seen a wet flake mixed in. Most years we at least see some white rain in March at some point. Buckling up for our BN April and May probably.

Nah, this has been par for the course in the 2020s. PHL didn't have a trace of snow in March in 2020, 2021, and 2024. If this holds, it will be the 4th time in the first 6 years of this decade with no trace of snow.

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