ChescoWx Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Today, back in 1958 Chester and Berks Counties were in the middle of the 2nd largest snowstorm in history. Morgantown received 50 inches of snow and Devault 49 inches of heavy wet snow. Nothing like that in the forecast…. but a reminder it can still snow into April. The next couple of days will likely be our mildest over the next couple of weeks with high temperatures well into the 60’s. Average high temperatures today are near 50 degrees. Rain chances increase by tomorrow afternoon with some spots seeing up to 0.75” of much needed rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 ECM late month and early April has 70's. GFS thinks low 40's I'm going with the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 gfs shit the bed already. 2-3 feet of snow gone -----That model needs to be shelved until we have a better non-progressive weather pattern. The 30 mph+ Santa Ana type winds return on Friday immediately drying out any rain we get on Thursday. No water recharge into the ground except the first couple of inches of topsoil. Again, this .50 inch of rain is great for greening the yards and for spring bulbs but the groundwater table for water supply and base flows for the limestone streams are falling real quick as the trees start to bud. The leaves will start to open in 3-4 weeks and then we are in real trouble as the uptake of any residual moisture in the soil is gone. NOAA and PADEP must issue a drought emergency for the LV before the water authorities do it on their own with rationing. The weather discussion keeps saying beneficial rains are coming-- just like the 3 ft of snow on the GFS model but actually .25 to .50 in rains are not really beneficial when we have drying wind advisory events right behind the fronts. NJ is not the only area of the MT Holly region. The LV has not received a single 2 in rain event since August 18, 2024 and only a couple of single rainfall events barely over an inch since then . We are going on below normal precip for 9 months now. Folks, that is a hell of drought. The 2-3 inches of rain in NJ this past weekend killed the existing drought conditions along SE NJ with their sandy soils and above avg snowfall so far this year. Lets start hearing more about the million + people that live in the I-78 corridor and the daily brush fires in the weather discussions. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 21 hours ago, Albedoman said: gfs shit the bed already. 2-3 feet of snow gone -----That model needs to be shelved until we have a better non-progressive weather pattern. The 30 mph+ Santa Ana type winds return on Friday immediately drying out any rain we get on Thursday. No water recharge into the ground except the first couple of inches of topsoil. Again, this .50 inch of rain is great for greening the yards and for spring bulbs but the groundwater table for water supply and base flows for the limestone streams are falling real quick as the trees start to bud. The leaves will start to open in 3-4 weeks and then we are in real trouble as the uptake of any residual moisture in the soil is gone. NOAA and PADEP must issue a drought emergency for the LV before the water authorities do it on their own with rationing. The weather discussion keeps saying beneficial rains are coming-- just like the 3 ft of snow on the GFS model but actually .25 to .50 in rains are not really beneficial when we have drying wind advisory events right behind the fronts. NJ is not the only area of the MT Holly region. The LV has not received a single 2 in rain event since August 18, 2024 and only a couple of single rainfall events barely over an inch since then . We are going on below normal precip for 9 months now. Folks, that is a hell of drought. The 2-3 inches of rain in NJ this past weekend killed the existing drought conditions along SE NJ with their sandy soils and above avg snowfall so far this year. Lets start hearing more about the million + people that live in the I-78 corridor and the daily brush fires in the weather discussions. Thanks What's our current drought situation.... Inch wise? I just went for a walk and cut through a high school football field and it was mushy. We'll get more rain tonight, I think we're just fine. Going to get windy again tonight and tomorrow... Twigs and branches on everyone's lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted March 20 Author Share Posted March 20 53 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: What's our current drought situation.... Inch wise? I just went for a walk and cut through a high school football field and it was mushy. We'll get more rain tonight, I think we're just fine. Going to get windy again tonight and tomorrow... Twigs and branches on everyone's lawn. As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end. Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter. By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 12z GFS seems to be on its own for next weekend. It has 30s and 40s with a SECS the following Tuesday. Meanwhile all the other models flex the SE ridge and get us into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: As the old saying goes, if the football field is muddy, then the dry period is nearing its end. Good example was the last week of October 2007, the local high school football field was muddy, and the dry period ended soon thereafter. By the way, here is the lastest drought monitor from NWS Mount Holly: drought is not measured by the moisture of the first 3-6 inches of topsoil. It is measured by groundwater elevations and base flows of streams. WE have a long way to go to break this drought. Like I said in my posts, .25 in rains are good for greening grass only. However 40 mph winds after tonights rain will dry the surface by tomorrow evening. Elevated fire risks for the weekend if the winds keep up. The dry period has been ongoing since August 18 th, 2024 the last day of a two inch rain for the LV. Since then, it has been a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 3 hours ago, LVblizzard said: 12z GFS seems to be on its own for next weekend. It has 30s and 40s with a SECS the following Tuesday. Meanwhile all the other models flex the SE ridge and get us into the 70s. the progressive LR patterns we ar in are not even worth looking at at this time for the GFS model. Look at a 3-5 day models instaead- more reliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 16 minutes ago, Albedoman said: the progressive LR patterns we ar in are not even worth looking at at this time for the GFS model. Look at a 3-5 day models instaead- more reliable A good half inch tonight and a couple chances next week. They'll be flood warnings very shortly...then we can call you flood guy. However, wouldn't mind seeing a few brush fires before that happens.... always fun and I can cross it off my list. A bug plague would be fun as well this summer. Dark mean ominous clouds to the west approaching.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Bunch of stuff by the valley forge area and west. I'm getting a few drops now myself.... I think Roads will be closed due to heavy flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Disappointed in the wind so far. Dead quiet, no flying cows or heaving trash cans being tossed around. Hopefully this picks up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Off and on rain here for the last 15 minutes, starting to pick up a little now. Has a huge lightning bolt about a mile away around 5 minutes ago, sitting on the porch and wasn't expecting it, wow-worthy! Got about 0.80" of rain the other day, radar looks promising for hopefully another half inch this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 20 Share Posted March 20 Rain and lightning works for me. 57F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 minutes ago, BBasile said: Rain and lightning works for me. 57F At least for me, the drops are large pounding the roof of my car. I may have heard thunder, really not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 That one was bright and loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: A good half inch tonight and a couple chances next week. They'll be flood warnings very shortly...then we can call you flood guy. However, wouldn't mind seeing a few brush fires before that happens.... always fun and I can cross it off my list. A bug plague would be fun as well this summer. Dark mean ominous clouds to the west approaching.... Don't poke the drought guy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Good heavy moderate stuff going on, still waiting for the wind to kick in. Radar to the West looks pretty damn good also... Thinking an inch plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 47 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Disappointed in the wind so far. Dead quiet, no flying cows or heaving trash cans being tossed around. Hopefully this picks up.... I did get my first lightning strike of the spring, just after 8 pm. I think when the front goes through, you might get some flying calves (further north may have the full sized beef guys). Getting some moderate rain, just under 1/2" per hour and have 0.15" in the bucket. Made it up to 69 for a high after a 44 low and it's currently 56 with dp 53. Was glad I put some fertilizer out for the plants to get rained in! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I did get my first lightning strike of the spring, just after 8 pm. I think when the front goes through, you might get some flying calves (further north may have the full sized beef guys). Getting some moderate rain, just under 1/2" per hour and have 0.15" in the bucket. Made it up to 69 for a high after a 44 low and it's currently 56 with dp 53. Was glad I put some fertilizer out for the plants to get rained in! Looks like it will turn out to be a solid soaking. Liking what I see on radar... Coming down a good rate. 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 39 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Good heavy moderate stuff going on, still waiting for the wind to kick in. Radar to the West looks pretty damn good also... Thinking an inch plus. The strong winds are not until very late tonight and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, MGorse said: The strong winds are not until very late tonight and tomorrow. Good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Don't poke the drought guy lol bring it on. How about a severe t storm warning to boot? Still waiting for that 30 in snowfall event to hit us in few weeks LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 49 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Good to hear! just in time to dry out the soil profile by mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Closing in on 1/3” up here in Lehigh County and with some luck we may get close to 0.4. Hoped for 1/2” but happy with something rather than nothing. Looks like another 1/4-1/2” on Monday. These things do add up if the consistency keeps going, but it would be nice to see a 1”-2” at some point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 .60" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 41 minutes ago, RedSky said: .60" Ditto here. 1.40" in less than a week is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 hours ago, Albedoman said: just in time to dry out the soil profile by mid afternoon. Wind has been a no show so far. 1:30 a.m. and quiet and calm. I was hoping for a couple down trees blocking roadways, but nope, nada... 48F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Wind is here better late than never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Wind starting to kick... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Finished up with 0.68" of much-needed rain. Currently breezy and 43 with dp 34. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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