Chicago Storm Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 As with any other year… For the days/events that are not thread worthy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 How are things looking for Wednesday? Just happy that it looks to be a during the day sort of affair for any storms that do pop up at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 47 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: How are things looking for Wednesday? Just happy that it looks to be a during the day sort of affair for any storms that do pop up at least Moisture return doesn't look nearly as pristine. But dynamically-speaking, there's potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 I'm definitely interested in the cold core potential Wednesday. Dew points look marginal but mid level temps are frigid leading to steep low level lapse rates. It seems like a good opportunity for low topped supercells at least and maybe even a tornado threat. It's local for me so there's a good chance I'll be out chasing if this doesn't down trend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 2 hours ago, fluoronium said: I'm definitely interested in the cold core potential Wednesday. Dew points look marginal but mid level temps are frigid leading to steep low level lapse rates. It seems like a good opportunity for low topped supercells at least and maybe even a tornado threat. It's local for me so there's a good chance I'll be out chasing if this doesn't down trend. Looks more interesting than last Friday from a chase standpoint from where I'm coming from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Hi-res popping a beautiful string of pearls from the surface low southeastward in a nice arc. If moisture can pool enough in front of that triple point a few tors would definitely be possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 February 8th 2024 definitely opened my eyes to the range of surface T/Td conditions in which significant are possible, along with Winterset day in 2022. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 0Z HRRR actually portrays a decent environment over S. WI early-mid afternoon Wednesday, although it doesn't explicitly break out rotating cells. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 HRRR has a bit more moisture to work with. Looks less cluttered and more defined. This one could creep up on us if a little more moisture is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Nice spring day with just a lil spice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 A bit surprised they are not mentioning a tornado threat whatsoever given the strong shear and the sweet spot of 3CAPE pooling on the HRRR. These seem to be the kind of setups that are conducive for low-topped spinners in this region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said: A bit surprised they are not mentioning a tornado threat whatsoever given the strong shear and the sweet spot of 3CAPE pooling on the HRRR. These seem to be the kind of setups that are conducive for low-topped spinners in this region. Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize. If temps stay in the low 60s (not unreasonable), low 50s dews are plenty for a doable LCL. HRRR is actually suggesting mid or even small pockets of upper 50s are possible. I would have expected it to be mixing to the low 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize. Haha too high to touch the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 3 hours ago, Powerball said: Likely because of the limited moisture return leading to fairly high LCLs. The wind field is looking to also be somewhat veered. But yeah, I don't think the threat is non-zero if some discrete cells can organize. The LCLs on the 15z RAP and 18z HRRR are plenty workable for some tornadoes should the thermodynamics verify this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Just now, andyhb said: The LCLs on the 15z RAP and 18z HRRR are plenty workable for some tornadoes should the thermodynamics verify this way. Definitely not "too high to touch the ground." I've been burned multiple times in the recent past by not chasing after underestimating seemingly marginal moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Not a bad run on 18z HRRR. Timing looking optimal for Chicago area and some period of discrete-ness in storms. Dews in mid 50s with temps around low to mid 60's. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Pretty much a no-brainer on the 21z RAP. There's enough columnar CAPE for robust updrafts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 I'd be excited for this one in LOT. Threat probably wanes pretty quickly this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Small enhanced added for tornadoes and slight risk expanded. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 The potential is def there for a very favorable low topped supercell sig tor environment, particularly if the more aggressively moist HRRR/RAP depictions pan out. Glad SPC bumped up the tornado threat. Other than being a little surprised Bentley went right to the 10% hatched (vs. unhatched 10% or perhaps a smaller 5% tor) given questions on the specifics with the moisture and the resulting 0-3km CAPE, nice outlook and well written discussion. I'm liking near/south of the IL and Kankakee River in LOT CWA, which gives more wiggle room south of the warm front given the ~40 kt SSW Bunkers right mover vector, and low hodographs have generally looked a little better with southward extent in the warm sector within the CWA. Might see about chasing (for the first time since 2016) since I won't be called into work after working 7 shifts in a row. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Might see about chasing (for the first time since 2016) since I won't be called into work after working 7 shifts in a row. If we get the rare "A national weather service employee reported a tornado" in a warning text we'll know it's you o7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: The potential is def there for a very favorable low topped supercell sig tor environment, particularly if the more aggressively moist HRRR/RAP depictions pan out. Glad SPC bumped up the tornado threat. Other than being a little surprised Bentley went right to the 10% hatched (vs. unhatched 10% or perhaps a smaller 5% tor) given questions on the specifics with the moisture and the resulting 0-3km CAPE, nice outlook and well written discussion. I'm liking near/south of the IL and Kankakee River in LOT CWA, which gives more wiggle room south of the warm front given the ~40 kt SSW Bunkers right mover vector, and low hodographs have generally looked a little better with southward extent in the warm sector within the CWA. Might see about chasing (for the first time since 2016) since I won't be called into work after working 7 shifts in a row. Was thinking yesterday Ottawa to Pontiac area looked like a good target. Nice open terrain there, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Not even within the general thunder contour for today: Quote 775 WUUS53 KILX 232118 SVRILX ILC123-143-203-232200- /O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0039.250323T2118Z-250323T2200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 418 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Marshall County in central Illinois... North central Woodford County in central Illinois... Northeastern Peoria County in central Illinois... * Until 500 PM CDT. * At 418 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sparland, or over Lacon, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * This severe thunderstorm will be near... Varna around 430 PM CDT. Toluca around 435 PM CDT. Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include Wenona. This includes Interstate 39 between mile markers 27 and 40. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 4112 8933 4110 8935 4110 8905 4087 8905 4093 8957 4115 8947 4115 8933 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 272DEG 42KT 4101 8944 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted Friday at 02:42 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:42 AM I'm starting to like Sunday for my neck of the woods. Its at least looking like we may get some energy coming through with some sunlight instead of pissing out at the IN/IL line. Lapse rates kinda iffy but there's some decent kinematics and backing winds along with a strengthening surface low moving through IN on the NAM. Some really nice HODO's in S IL and IN, especially along I70 and south and pretty significant SRH values. It's not the best but its the best look I've had in MBY so far this Spring. Might be thread worthy as we get into some HiRes land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Friday at 03:58 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:58 AM I can start a thread for Sunday tomorrow if it looks to continue the uptrend around the area. Saw a gif of the GFS actually trending towards the ukmet solution which is concerning 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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