Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

extended looks wet

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks wet

Getting a nice round moving through the state line region this AM. After drought concerns in the late winter due to the lack of snow, April showers have been in plentiful supply. This ain't gonna be 2012, at least around here.

[nvck]

Haven't dug into this super closely, but next monday looks active in the sub

[hawkeye_wx]

On 4/22/2025 at 7:23 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

Getting a nice round moving through the state line region this AM. After drought concerns in the late winter due to the lack of snow, April showers have been in plentiful supply. This ain't gonna be 2012, at least around here.

Early to mid spring, 2012, we received a fairly normal amount of precip around here.  The spigot shut off in May.

[CheeselandSkies]

28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Early to mid spring, 2012, we received a fairly normal amount of precip around here.  The spigot shut off in May.

I was living in Milwaukee at the time and I recall it being bone dry from "Morch" onward.

[nvck]

This should probably have a thread for it soon, maybe including 4/29's 15% as well

[Chambana]

On 4/23/2025 at 11:33 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

I was living in Milwaukee at the time and I recall it being bone dry from "Morch" onward.

Corn was declared 100% loss just south of here by the 3rd week of July during the brutally hot summer of 2012. By the second week of May it was already in the 90s. Insane spring/summer.

[Spartman]

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week
 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

06z GFS:

00z Euro:

[CheeselandSkies]

Puke. Classic dreaded spring omega block that prevents western troughs from maturing and ejecting properly for events.

[Powerball]

9 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Puke. Classic dreaded spring omega block that prevents western troughs from maturing and ejecting properly for events.

 

13 hours ago, Spartman said:

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week
 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

06z GFS:

00z Euro:

 

Probably won't be as cool as the 500mb map suggests, FWIW.

But yeah, will suck for severe weather prospects outside of possibly the Southern Plains.

[Harry Perry]

14 hours ago, Spartman said:

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week
 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

06z GFS:

00z Euro:

Yuck.

Let’s hope that doesn’t verify like the snow that was supposed to be falling today (as of a week ago) lol 

[Spartman]

17 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Puke. Classic dreaded spring omega block that prevents western troughs from maturing and ejecting properly for events.

Already ruining the chance of what would have been a dry weekend for a change this upcoming weekend. Haven't had a dry weekend since late February or a drier-than-normal month since January and might as well wait until at least sometime in the summer to see a dry weekend ever again, knowing how this Spring has been. Hell, I'm ready for 2025 to be over already. 

00z Euro still locking in the Omega Block over the weekend, although the Omega Block gets replaced by a potential Rex Block later next week:

00z GFS:

Latest Long Term update from ILN

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period, with some strong storms still possible. The more robust
activity will diminish through the evening as upper support lifts
northeast and instability decreases. However, some showers and
thunderstorms may linger with a weakening surface boundary in the
area.

Northern stream short wave will dig southeast Friday into Friday
night. This, along with diurnal heating, will be sufficient to bring
an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms again during the
day. This will continue into Friday night as weak low pressure and a
cold front finally move through.

At this point, guidance diverges as the flow transitions into a
blocky pattern. The GFS and much of its ensemble system are quite
progressive with the trough, not closing it off until reaching the
Maritimes, allowing high pressure to build into the region and
predominate. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and CMC along with many of their
respective ensemble members close off a low near or west of the
Appalachians which then meanders about the region through the rest
of the period. Needless to say, these two scenarios would result in
a substantial difference in sensible weather. The NBM and the lag
built into that is still pretty optimistic. But with the trends seen
in the ECE and GEPS, have begun to trend the forecast to more clouds
and low PoP chances.

IND office caving to the ILN about the blocking pattern

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Unsettled conditions continue with additional opportunities for
showers and thunderstorms as we wrap up the work week with a cold front
moving across the Thursday night followed by a trailing upper level
low and associated surface trough on Friday. The warm front
should be fully north of the forecast area by Thursday morning as
low pressure lifts into north central Illinois. High pressure will
build in for the weekend with an amplified and blocky upper level
pattern developing across the country by early next week. There
remains the possibility that the upper trough passing through the
Ohio Valley during the first part of the weekend closes off into a
low to our east into early next week. This would delay the
arrival of ridging and warmer air by a few days and could cause a
wet and unsettled pattern to linger but confidence is low in this
solution coming to pass. The more consistent idea remains that
ridging aloft and at the surface will become the dominant features
across the region and bring a return to warm and dry weather by
early next week.

TWC/Wunderground is already hugging the Euro regarding this weekend into early next week.

BAM bringing up the blocking pattern, as well
https://x.com/bam_weather/status/1917255041062260887

Wonder how soon until JB starts bringing up next week's blocking pattern 

[Spartman]

Still in the COD