Spring 2025 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[A-L-E-K]

extended looks wet

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

extended looks wet

Getting a nice round moving through the state line region this AM. After drought concerns in the late winter due to the lack of snow, April showers have been in plentiful supply. This ain't gonna be 2012, at least around here.

[nvck]

Haven't dug into this super closely, but next monday looks active in the sub

[hawkeye_wx]

On 4/22/2025 at 7:23 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

Getting a nice round moving through the state line region this AM. After drought concerns in the late winter due to the lack of snow, April showers have been in plentiful supply. This ain't gonna be 2012, at least around here.

Early to mid spring, 2012, we received a fairly normal amount of precip around here.  The spigot shut off in May.

[CheeselandSkies]

28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Early to mid spring, 2012, we received a fairly normal amount of precip around here.  The spigot shut off in May.

I was living in Milwaukee at the time and I recall it being bone dry from "Morch" onward.

[nvck]

This should probably have a thread for it soon, maybe including 4/29's 15% as well

[Chambana]

On 4/23/2025 at 11:33 AM, CheeselandSkies said:

I was living in Milwaukee at the time and I recall it being bone dry from "Morch" onward.

Corn was declared 100% loss just south of here by the 3rd week of July during the brutally hot summer of 2012. By the second week of May it was already in the 90s. Insane spring/summer.

[Spartman]

ILN wants to talk about a blocking pattern developing this weekend into next week
 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A robust short wave moving out of the Ozarks on Thursday will
deamplify as it lifts up the Ohio Valley on Thursday night. At the
surface, a warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night
and there could be some showers and thunderstorms associated with
that. Potential for showers and thunderstorms in the warm sector
will increase with the combination of diurnal heating and the
approach of upper support. Activity will wane somewhat as the short
wave lifts away from the area later Thursday night. The short wave
will take a surface low west and north of the region, but a trailing
cold front will slide into the forecast area Thursday night.

The front will not make it all of the way through the area until
Friday and possibly Friday night when a stronger push comes from a
northern stream trough digging into the region. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue until this trough passes east of the
area.

With the passage of this trough, the mid levels transition into a
high amplitude, blocky pattern. A closed low will develop out of the
base of the trough that moves through, but there is some potential
that this low then retrogrades back into the region early next week.
With quite a wide range of solutions on where a closed low will
occur, have stayed pretty close to the NBM for now keeping the
region dry.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Friday and then drop
below normal over the weekend. If the closed low stays east of the
area, then temperatures will rebound early next week.

06z GFS:

00z Euro:

[CheeselandSkies]

Puke. Classic dreaded spring omega block that prevents western troughs from maturing and ejecting properly for events.