largetornado Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 1:32 PM, nvck said: Something to watch for next weekend Expand Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 5:42 PM, largetornado said: Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. Expand I've seen a lot of social media posts already about the giant day 7 outlook. I agree that it seems premature to include such a large area at this point. The CSU forecast agrees with you, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 5:42 PM, largetornado said: Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. Expand Perhaps Broyles hacked onto Goss' profile last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 another transient spring defo band being hinted at in the mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904245132657934438 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Outlook this Spring....warms up, and turns into Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 extended continues to look generally active/wet in the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 On 3/26/2025 at 10:54 AM, A-L-E-K said: extended continues to look generally active/wet in the region Expand Garbage pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Looking so bad into April, we might as well get a blocking pattern by then. BAM brings up Aprils 2001, 2011, and 2012 as his analogs, but April 2011 looks to be the most fitting one since that April was one of the wettest ever. Looks like it'll be active/wet through at least a good portion of the upcoming summer, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 On 3/27/2025 at 5:06 PM, CheeselandSkies said: With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area. Expand https://x.com/indywx/status/1905231109006188598 We are REALLY REALLY pushing for a 2011 redux this Spring...and perhaps 2025 this year altogether. Heading into April, not good if you're looking for sustained Spring warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Volatile, potential widespread severe setup on the 12z Euro/EPS/AIFS next week around 4/2 @RCNYILWX. Have seen that synoptic pattern before and it's consistent with significant GL/Midwest/OV severe events. This has been showing up for several runs now while the GFS is off in la-la land. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/254/#comments From the 2024-2025 La Nina thread: This April's expected to have a very wet start to the month, but supposed to start feeling the effects of the recent Stratospheric warming by the 1st full week of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Really, really need a thread for 4/2-3 here soon. Major outbreak on the 12z GFS from IL/IN all the way southward to central MS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 On 3/29/2025 at 4:10 PM, andyhb said: Really, really need a thread for 4/2-3 here soon. Major outbreak on the 12z GFS from IL/IN all the way southward to central MS. Expand Yeah the GFS jumped on board with the EURO today cranking that low up. 30% on SPC Day 5 is pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 12z Euro is also a major event. Very volatile parameter space across a very large area with relatively subtle forcing for ascent and a weak cap is a recipe for trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 cool/cold shot early next week. Then things turn mild around the weekend of the 12th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 On 4/2/2025 at 5:29 PM, madwx said: cool/cold shot early next week. Then things turn mild around the weekend of the 12th. Expand Probably going to be a head fake. Doesn't look like any sustained warmth for the remainder of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 On 4/10/2025 at 5:23 PM, Spartman said: Expand Unfortunate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 the last 10 days of this month will be above average. also note that average temps are now pretty pleasant, so anything close to average will be 55 degrees or warmer 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 madwx a solid new addition for mid/longer range views. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 https://x.com/indywx/status/1910651175004737801 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 On 4/12/2025 at 12:46 AM, Spartman said: https://x.com/indywx/status/1910651175004737801 Expand You have my condolences... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 days 5 & 6 looking to get more active once again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 ^ Poor timing again for the DVN cwa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 GFS suddenly looks pretty good over southwestern Iowa (last year's hot spot) on Thursday evening. However Euro is not nearly as aggressive with the moisture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 The pattern is looking pretty wet and stormy late this week through week two. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 some of you should like this: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 On 4/14/2025 at 4:02 PM, nvck said: some of you should like this: Expand 12Z NAM is way slower, has the greatest threat back in central NE/KS at 0Z Friday (Thursday evening). Meanwhile Euro shows pretty meager moisture. GFS has looked pretty good over IA for a few runs, but it's really by itself with that. If the GFS is in fact being too progressive, I could see Friday actually being a significant day somewhere in the E IA/N IL/S WI region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Potentially significant severe event setting up for MO/W IL on Sunday with instability/moisture being the main question. Potent, negatively tilted wave quickly ejects across the S Plains during the afternoon and a 50+ kt LLJ provides very strong low level shear ahead of the Pacific front most of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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