largetornado Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 1:32 PM, nvck said: Something to watch for next weekend Expand Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 5:42 PM, largetornado said: Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. Expand I've seen a lot of social media posts already about the giant day 7 outlook. I agree that it seems premature to include such a large area at this point. The CSU forecast agrees with you, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 On 3/24/2025 at 5:42 PM, largetornado said: Honestly not sure why they issued this. Screenshot is EURO 500 MB for sunday night. GFS has a more pronounced trough but thermos need work. Given that the models are so different at 500 mb, i think this outlook is a bad call. Maybe Little Rock to evansville to bowling green to nashville. There is veering in GFS soundings. I agree there is a risk on sunday, but this large area...i dont see anything that supports it, especially as far north as michigan. Expand Perhaps Broyles hacked onto Goss' profile last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 another transient spring defo band being hinted at in the mid range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904243702932918584 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1904245132657934438 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Outlook this Spring....warms up, and turns into Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 extended continues to look generally active/wet in the region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Wednesday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:30 PM On 3/26/2025 at 10:54 AM, A-L-E-K said: extended continues to look generally active/wet in the region Expand Garbage pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Looking so bad into April, we might as well get a blocking pattern by then. BAM brings up Aprils 2001, 2011, and 2012 as his analogs, but April 2011 looks to be the most fitting one since that April was one of the wettest ever. Looks like it'll be active/wet through at least a good portion of the upcoming summer, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted Thursday at 05:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:06 PM With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Thursday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:40 PM On 3/27/2025 at 5:06 PM, CheeselandSkies said: With the latest 12Z GFS/NAM outputs, Sunday is getting rather interesting for severe potential especially in the eastern Illinois/western Indiana area. Expand https://x.com/indywx/status/1905231109006188598 We are REALLY REALLY pushing for a 2011 redux this Spring...and perhaps 2025 this year altogether. Heading into April, not good if you're looking for sustained Spring warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Thursday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:27 PM Volatile, potential widespread severe setup on the 12z Euro/EPS/AIFS next week around 4/2 @RCNYILWX. Have seen that synoptic pattern before and it's consistent with significant GL/Midwest/OV severe events. This has been showing up for several runs now while the GFS is off in la-la land. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Saturday at 01:43 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:43 AM https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60046-2024-2025-la-nina/page/254/#comments From the 2024-2025 La Nina thread: This April's expected to have a very wet start to the month, but supposed to start feeling the effects of the recent Stratospheric warming by the 1st full week of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Saturday at 04:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:10 PM Really, really need a thread for 4/2-3 here soon. Major outbreak on the 12z GFS from IL/IN all the way southward to central MS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted Saturday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:21 PM On 3/29/2025 at 4:10 PM, andyhb said: Really, really need a thread for 4/2-3 here soon. Major outbreak on the 12z GFS from IL/IN all the way southward to central MS. Expand Yeah the GFS jumped on board with the EURO today cranking that low up. 30% on SPC Day 5 is pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:54 PM 12z Euro is also a major event. Very volatile parameter space across a very large area with relatively subtle forcing for ascent and a weak cap is a recipe for trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now