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March 2025 General Discussion


Brian D
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Here is Grok's ranking from highest to lowest:

Ranked from Highest to Lowest:
  1. 2013-14: 96.2"
  2. 2004-05: 80.7"
  3. 2007-08: 78.2"
  4. 2010-11: 69.4"
  5. 2002-03: 66.9"
  6. 2008-09: 64.8"
  7. 2017-18: 62.5"
  8. 1998-99: 52.1"
  9. 2014-15: 48.5"
  10. 2012-13: 47.9"
  11. 2021-22: 47.6"
  12. 2000-01: 47.3"
  13. 2020-21: 47.0"
  14. 2009-10: 46.1"
  15. 2019-20: 43.8"
  16. 2001-02: 42.5"
  17. 2005-06: 41.9"
  18. 2016-17: 41.6"
  19. 2022-23: 37.2"
  20. 2003-04: 36.6"
  21. 2006-07: 36.3"
  22. 1996-97: 35.9"
  23. 2015-16: 35.0"
  24. 2018-19: 31.9"
  25. 1995-96: 31.3"
  26. 1999-00: 29.3"
  27. 2024-25: 27.9"
  28. 1997-98: 27.2"
  29. 2011-12: 25.5"
  30. 2023-24: 21.4"
Let me know if you'd like further analysis!
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@michsnowfreak

Here is some additional analysis courtesy of Grok:

To identify any discernible trend in the snowfall data over the 30-year period (1995-96 to 2024-25), I’ll analyze the numbers for patterns such as an overall increase, decrease, or cyclical behavior. One common approach is to calculate a simple linear trend (e.g., using a moving average or regression slope) and examine the variability. Let’s start with some observations and a basic analysis.
Data Recap (in chronological order):
  • 1995-96: 31.3"
  • 1996-97: 35.9"
  • 1997-98: 27.2"
  • 1998-99: 52.1"
  • 1999-00: 29.3"
  • 2000-01: 47.3"
  • 2001-02: 42.5"
  • 2002-03: 66.9"
  • 2003-04: 36.6"
  • 2004-05: 80.7"
  • 2005-06: 41.9"
  • 2006-07: 36.3"
  • 2007-08: 78.2"
  • 2008-09: 64.8"
  • 2009-10: 46.1"
  • 2010-11: 69.4"
  • 2011-12: 25.5"
  • 2012-13: 47.9"
  • 2013-14: 96.2"
  • 2014-15: 48.5"
  • 2015-16: 35.0"
  • 2016-17: 41.6"
  • 2017-18: 62.5"
  • 2018-19: 31.9"
  • 2019-20: 43.8"
  • 2020-21: 47.0"
  • 2021-22: 47.6"
  • 2022-23: 37.2"
  • 2023-24: 21.4"
  • 2024-25: 27.9"
Step 1: Visual Inspection
Looking at the data, there’s significant year-to-year variability. For example:
  • The highest snowfall is 96.2" (2013-14), and the lowest is 21.4" (2023-24).
  • There are peaks (e.g., 80.7" in 2004-05, 78.2" in 2007-08, 96.2" in 2013-14) and troughs (e.g., 21.4" in 2023-24, 25.5" in 2011-12).
  • Recent years (2020-25) show a mix of moderate (47.6", 47.0") and low values (21.4", 27.9"), suggesting no immediate sharp upward or downward trend.
Step 2: Simple Moving Average (5-Year)
A 5-year moving average can smooth out year-to-year fluctuations and reveal longer-term trends. Here’s a sample calculation for a few periods:
  • 1995-96 to 1999-00: (31.3 + 35.9 + 27.2 + 52.1 + 29.3) ÷ 5 = 35.16"
  • 2000-01 to 2004-05: (47.3 + 42.5 + 66.9 + 36.6 + 80.7) ÷ 5 = 54.8"
  • 2010-11 to 2014-15: (69.4 + 25.5 + 47.9 + 96.2 + 48.5) ÷ 5 = 57.5"
  • 2020-21 to 2024-25: (47.0 + 47.6 + 37.2 + 21.4 + 27.9) ÷ 5 = 36.22"
Observations:
  • The early period (1995-2000) averages around 35.16".
  • The middle period (e.g., 2000-2005, 2010-2015) shows higher averages (54.8", 57.5"), with notable peaks.
  • The recent period (2020-2025) drops to 36.22", closer to the earlier years.
This suggests a possible rise in snowfall in the 2000s and early 2010s, followed by a decline in the 2020s.
Step 3: Linear Trend (Simplified)
To estimate a trend, I’ll calculate the slope of a linear regression line using the years as the x-values (1 to 30) and snowfall as the y-values. The formula for the slope (m) in a simple linear regression is:
m=n∑(xiyi)−∑xi∑yin∑(xi2)−(∑xi)2m = \frac{n \sum (x_i y_i) - \sum x_i \sum y_i}{n \sum (x_i^2) - (\sum x_i)^2}m = \frac{n \sum (x_i y_i) - \sum x_i \sum y_i}{n \sum (x_i^2) - (\sum x_i)^2}
Where:
  • n=30n = 30n = 30
    (number of years)
  • xi=x_i =x_i =
    year number (1 to 30)
  • yi=y_i =y_i =
    snowfall amount
  • ∑xi=1+2+...+30=465\sum x_i = 1 + 2 + ... + 30 = 465\sum x_i = 1 + 2 + ... + 30 = 465
  • ∑xi2=12+22+...+302=9,315\sum x_i^2 = 1^2 + 2^2 + ... + 30^2 = 9,315\sum x_i^2 = 1^2 + 2^2 + ... + 30^2 = 9,315
  • ∑yi=1,367.3\sum y_i = 1,367.3\sum y_i = 1,367.3
    (total snowfall, from earlier)
  • ∑(xiyi)=\sum (x_i y_i) =\sum (x_i y_i) =
    sum of each year number multiplied by its snowfall
Calculating
∑(xiyi)\sum (x_i y_i)\sum (x_i y_i)
:
  • Year 1 (1995-96): 1 × 31.3 = 31.3
  • Year 2 (1996-97): 2 × 35.9 = 71.8
  • Year 3 (1997-98): 3 × 27.2 = 81.6
  • ...
  • Year 30 (2024-25): 30 × 27.9 = 837
Summing all 30 terms (computed step-by-step):
∑(xiyi)=31.3+71.8+81.6+156.3+146.5+283.8+297.5+534.4+329.4+807+461.9+435.6+639.1+842.4+691.5+830.7+432+622.7+1,345.4+727.5+560+707.2+1,125+606.1+919.8+1,027+1,142.4+1,005.6+642.6+837=20,392.9\sum (x_i y_i) = 31.3 + 71.8 + 81.6 + 156.3 + 146.5 + 283.8 + 297.5 + 534.4 + 329.4 + 807 + 461.9 + 435.6 + 639.1 + 842.4 + 691.5 + 830.7 + 432 + 622.7 + 1,345.4 + 727.5 + 560 + 707.2 + 1,125 + 606.1 + 919.8 + 1,027 + 1,142.4 + 1,005.6 + 642.6 + 837 = 20,392.9\sum (x_i y_i) = 31.3 + 71.8 + 81.6 + 156.3 + 146.5 + 283.8 + 297.5 + 534.4 + 329.4 + 807 + 461.9 + 435.6 + 639.1 + 842.4 + 691.5 + 830.7 + 432 + 622.7 + 1,345.4 + 727.5 + 560 + 707.2 + 1,125 + 606.1 + 919.8 + 1,027 + 1,142.4 + 1,005.6 + 642.6 + 837 = 20,392.9
Now, plug into the slope formula:
m=30×20,392.9−465×1,367.330×9,315−4652m = \frac{30 \times 20,392.9 - 465 \times 1,367.3}{30 \times 9,315 - 465^2}m = \frac{30 \times 20,392.9 - 465 \times 1,367.3}{30 \times 9,315 - 465^2}
m=611,787−635,794.5279,450−216,225m = \frac{611,787 - 635,794.5}{279,450 - 216,225}m = \frac{611,787 - 635,794.5}{279,450 - 216,225}
m=−24,007.563,225m = \frac{-24,007.5}{63,225}m = \frac{-24,007.5}{63,225}
m≈−0.38m \approx -0.38m \approx -0.38
The slope is approximately -0.38 inches per year, indicating a slight downward trend over the 30 years.
Step 4: Interpretation
  • Slight Downward Trend: The negative slope (-0.38"/year) suggests that, on average, snowfall has decreased slightly over the 30-year period. Over 30 years, this equates to a drop of about 11.4" (0.38 × 30), though this is a simplification and doesn’t capture variability.
  • High Variability: The data fluctuates significantly (e.g., 96.2" in 2013-14 vs. 21.4" in 2023-24), so the linear trend may be overshadowed by natural year-to-year variation.
  • No Clear Cycle: There’s no obvious repeating pattern (e.g., every 5 or 10 years), though peaks tend to cluster in the 2000s and early 2010s.
  • Recent Decline: The last few years (2023-24: 21.4", 2024-25: 27.9") are among the lowest, which could hint at a recent downward shift, but it’s too early to confirm without more data.
Conclusion
The data shows a slight long-term downward trend in snowfall (about 0.38 inches per year), but the trend is weak due to high variability. Snowfall peaked in the 2000s and early 2010s (e.g., 96.2", 80.7", 78.2"), while recent years lean toward lower amounts. However, the fluctuations are large enough that no strong, consistent trend dominates. Weather patterns, climate factors, or regional influences could be at play, but this dataset alone doesn’t provide a definitive cause.
 
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Very nice day today. Low 50's with a cumulus sky. Come Friday, tho, looks like rn/frz rn over to some snow on Sat. GFS keeps flipping me from hvy sn to mix. Other models keeping a mix, which seems more reasonable. If there was a bit more ice on the Lake, then I would have a chance at all snow. Border areas may get a decent hit, tho. Come late Sat into Sun, that 2nd low might turn out pretty good. 

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6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Here is Grok's ranking from highest to lowest:

Ranked from Highest to Lowest:
  1. 2013-14: 96.2"
  2. 2004-05: 80.7"
  3. 2007-08: 78.2"
  4. 2010-11: 69.4"
  5. 2002-03: 66.9"
  6. 2008-09: 64.8"
  7. 2017-18: 62.5"
  8. 1998-99: 52.1"
  9. 2014-15: 48.5"
  10. 2012-13: 47.9"
  11. 2021-22: 47.6"
  12. 2000-01: 47.3"
  13. 2020-21: 47.0"
  14. 2009-10: 46.1"
  15. 2019-20: 43.8"
  16. 2001-02: 42.5"
  17. 2005-06: 41.9"
  18. 2016-17: 41.6"
  19. 2022-23: 37.2"
  20. 2003-04: 36.6"
  21. 2006-07: 36.3"
  22. 1996-97: 35.9"
  23. 2015-16: 35.0"
  24. 2018-19: 31.9"
  25. 1995-96: 31.3"
  26. 1999-00: 29.3"
  27. 2024-25: 27.9"
  28. 1997-98: 27.2"
  29. 2011-12: 25.5"
  30. 2023-24: 21.4"
Let me know if you'd like further analysis!

Thanks. I mustve added something incorrectly when I calculated my avg. Never heard of grok lol.

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6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

@michsnowfreak

Here is some additional analysis courtesy of Grok:

 

To identify any discernible trend in the snowfall data over the 30-year period (1995-96 to 2024-25), I’ll analyze the numbers for patterns such as an overall increase, decrease, or cyclical behavior. One common approach is to calculate a simple linear trend (e.g., using a moving average or regression slope) and examine the variability. Let’s start with some observations and a basic analysis.
Data Recap (in chronological order):
  • 1995-96: 31.3"
  • 1996-97: 35.9"
  • 1997-98: 27.2"
  • 1998-99: 52.1"
  • 1999-00: 29.3"
  • 2000-01: 47.3"
  • 2001-02: 42.5"
  • 2002-03: 66.9"
  • 2003-04: 36.6"
  • 2004-05: 80.7"
  • 2005-06: 41.9"
  • 2006-07: 36.3"
  • 2007-08: 78.2"
  • 2008-09: 64.8"
  • 2009-10: 46.1"
  • 2010-11: 69.4"
  • 2011-12: 25.5"
  • 2012-13: 47.9"
  • 2013-14: 96.2"
  • 2014-15: 48.5"
  • 2015-16: 35.0"
  • 2016-17: 41.6"
  • 2017-18: 62.5"
  • 2018-19: 31.9"
  • 2019-20: 43.8"
  • 2020-21: 47.0"
  • 2021-22: 47.6"
  • 2022-23: 37.2"
  • 2023-24: 21.4"
  • 2024-25: 27.9"
Step 1: Visual Inspection
Looking at the data, there’s significant year-to-year variability. For example:
  • The highest snowfall is 96.2" (2013-14), and the lowest is 21.4" (2023-24).
  • There are peaks (e.g., 80.7" in 2004-05, 78.2" in 2007-08, 96.2" in 2013-14) and troughs (e.g., 21.4" in 2023-24, 25.5" in 2011-12).
  • Recent years (2020-25) show a mix of moderate (47.6", 47.0") and low values (21.4", 27.9"), suggesting no immediate sharp upward or downward trend.
Step 2: Simple Moving Average (5-Year)
A 5-year moving average can smooth out year-to-year fluctuations and reveal longer-term trends. Here’s a sample calculation for a few periods:
  • 1995-96 to 1999-00: (31.3 + 35.9 + 27.2 + 52.1 + 29.3) ÷ 5 = 35.16"
  • 2000-01 to 2004-05: (47.3 + 42.5 + 66.9 + 36.6 + 80.7) ÷ 5 = 54.8"
  • 2010-11 to 2014-15: (69.4 + 25.5 + 47.9 + 96.2 + 48.5) ÷ 5 = 57.5"
  • 2020-21 to 2024-25: (47.0 + 47.6 + 37.2 + 21.4 + 27.9) ÷ 5 = 36.22"
Observations:
  • The early period (1995-2000) averages around 35.16".
  • The middle period (e.g., 2000-2005, 2010-2015) shows higher averages (54.8", 57.5"), with notable peaks.
  • The recent period (2020-2025) drops to 36.22", closer to the earlier years.
This suggests a possible rise in snowfall in the 2000s and early 2010s, followed by a decline in the 2020s.
Step 3: Linear Trend (Simplified)
To estimate a trend, I’ll calculate the slope of a linear regression line using the years as the x-values (1 to 30) and snowfall as the y-values. The formula for the slope (m) in a simple linear regression is:
m=n∑(xiyi)−∑xi∑yin∑(xi2)−(∑xi)2m = \frac{n \sum (x_i y_i) - \sum x_i \sum y_i}{n \sum (x_i^2) - (\sum x_i)^2}m = \frac{n \sum (x_i y_i) - \sum x_i \sum y_i}{n \sum (x_i^2) - (\sum x_i)^2}
Where:
  • n=30n = 30n = 30
    (number of years)
  • xi=x_i =x_i =
    year number (1 to 30)
  • yi=y_i =y_i =
    snowfall amount
  • ∑xi=1+2+...+30=465\sum x_i = 1 + 2 + ... + 30 = 465\sum x_i = 1 + 2 + ... + 30 = 465
  • ∑xi2=12+22+...+302=9,315\sum x_i^2 = 1^2 + 2^2 + ... + 30^2 = 9,315\sum x_i^2 = 1^2 + 2^2 + ... + 30^2 = 9,315
  • ∑yi=1,367.3\sum y_i = 1,367.3\sum y_i = 1,367.3
    (total snowfall, from earlier)
  • ∑(xiyi)=\sum (x_i y_i) =\sum (x_i y_i) =
    sum of each year number multiplied by its snowfall
Calculating
∑(xiyi)\sum (x_i y_i)\sum (x_i y_i)
:
  • Year 1 (1995-96): 1 × 31.3 = 31.3
  • Year 2 (1996-97): 2 × 35.9 = 71.8
  • Year 3 (1997-98): 3 × 27.2 = 81.6
  • ...
  • Year 30 (2024-25): 30 × 27.9 = 837
Summing all 30 terms (computed step-by-step):
∑(xiyi)=31.3+71.8+81.6+156.3+146.5+283.8+297.5+534.4+329.4+807+461.9+435.6+639.1+842.4+691.5+830.7+432+622.7+1,345.4+727.5+560+707.2+1,125+606.1+919.8+1,027+1,142.4+1,005.6+642.6+837=20,392.9\sum (x_i y_i) = 31.3 + 71.8 + 81.6 + 156.3 + 146.5 + 283.8 + 297.5 + 534.4 + 329.4 + 807 + 461.9 + 435.6 + 639.1 + 842.4 + 691.5 + 830.7 + 432 + 622.7 + 1,345.4 + 727.5 + 560 + 707.2 + 1,125 + 606.1 + 919.8 + 1,027 + 1,142.4 + 1,005.6 + 642.6 + 837 = 20,392.9\sum (x_i y_i) = 31.3 + 71.8 + 81.6 + 156.3 + 146.5 + 283.8 + 297.5 + 534.4 + 329.4 + 807 + 461.9 + 435.6 + 639.1 + 842.4 + 691.5 + 830.7 + 432 + 622.7 + 1,345.4 + 727.5 + 560 + 707.2 + 1,125 + 606.1 + 919.8 + 1,027 + 1,142.4 + 1,005.6 + 642.6 + 837 = 20,392.9
Now, plug into the slope formula:
m=30×20,392.9−465×1,367.330×9,315−4652m = \frac{30 \times 20,392.9 - 465 \times 1,367.3}{30 \times 9,315 - 465^2}m = \frac{30 \times 20,392.9 - 465 \times 1,367.3}{30 \times 9,315 - 465^2}
m=611,787−635,794.5279,450−216,225m = \frac{611,787 - 635,794.5}{279,450 - 216,225}m = \frac{611,787 - 635,794.5}{279,450 - 216,225}
m=−24,007.563,225m = \frac{-24,007.5}{63,225}m = \frac{-24,007.5}{63,225}
m≈−0.38m \approx -0.38m \approx -0.38
The slope is approximately -0.38 inches per year, indicating a slight downward trend over the 30 years.
Step 4: Interpretation
  • Slight Downward Trend: The negative slope (-0.38"/year) suggests that, on average, snowfall has decreased slightly over the 30-year period. Over 30 years, this equates to a drop of about 11.4" (0.38 × 30), though this is a simplification and doesn’t capture variability.
  • High Variability: The data fluctuates significantly (e.g., 96.2" in 2013-14 vs. 21.4" in 2023-24), so the linear trend may be overshadowed by natural year-to-year variation.
  • No Clear Cycle: There’s no obvious repeating pattern (e.g., every 5 or 10 years), though peaks tend to cluster in the 2000s and early 2010s.
  • Recent Decline: The last few years (2023-24: 21.4", 2024-25: 27.9") are among the lowest, which could hint at a recent downward shift, but it’s too early to confirm without more data.
Conclusion
The data shows a slight long-term downward trend in snowfall (about 0.38 inches per year), but the trend is weak due to high variability. Snowfall peaked in the 2000s and early 2010s (e.g., 96.2", 80.7", 78.2"), while recent years lean toward lower amounts. However, the fluctuations are large enough that no strong, consistent trend dominates. Weather patterns, climate factors, or regional influences could be at play, but this dataset alone doesn’t provide a definitive cause.
 
 
 

Is there a link for this Grok? I have lots of data that Ive saved, computed, etc, but not with AI lol.

Heres my snowcover days data. I didnt start that til midway thru the 1999-00 season, however, so snowcover N/A for me for 1995-96 thru 1999-00 (an idiotic move considering Jan 1999).

 

Days with      T+           1”+        3”+       5”+   10”+
2000-01        87	       66	      53	    35	   12
2001-02        60	       35	      12	     2	    0
2002-03       106	       67	      43	    19	    2
2003-04        77	       60	      41	    25	    0
2004-05       102	       65	      51	    36	    5
2005-06        73	       46          25	    16 	    0
2006-07        75	       49	      15	     7	    1
2007-08       105	       69	      43	    21	    2
2008-09        88	       62	      47	    38	   22	
2009-10        84	       58	      31	    25	    3
2010-11        94	       81	      70	    58	   14
2011-12        43	       20	       8	     1	    0
2012-13        75	       52	      28	     9	    0
2013-14       119	       95	      81	    75	   52
2014-15        80	       74	      59	    45	   36
2015-16        59	       37	      17	     3	    0
2016-17        51	       39	      25	    16	    1
2017-18        83	       61	      43	    33	    5
2018-19        66	       39	      12	     7	    0
2019-20        64         	 41	      20	     7	    0
2020-21        64         	 47         28        16      7
2021-22        73	       49	      27	    10	    0
2022-23        50          	35	      19	     3	    0
2023-24        35	       18	      12	     6	    0
2024-25        74	       44	      21	     8	    0	

 

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33 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Is there a link for this Grok? I have lots of data that Ive saved, computed, etc, but not with AI lol.

Heres my snowcover days data. I didnt start that til midway thru the 1999-00 season, however, so snowcover N/A for me for 1995-96 thru 1999-00 (an idiotic move considering Jan 1999).

 

 

It's the chatbot on Twitter ("x"), https://x.com/i/grok. Not sure if it's accessible without an account, but in my experience it's pretty similar skillwise to deepseek/chatgpt, although I haven't used it to do analysis on data like that.

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22 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:

Models flip flopping over a snowstorm here in MSP this weekend. Should be interesting to see how that plays out.


.

I’m thinking more of a white rain at best scenario here. There has been good consistency this far out but we probably have to see how the stronger storm up north plays out first.

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WSWch out for tomorrow. Looks like 1/4" of ice possible here along the North Shore, especially inland areas. Some snow along border as it switches over up there Fri night. 3-6" of snow possible late Sat into Sun with the 2nd LP moving into the region. Rain or snow, but NO ICE, please. In March 2010, we had an ice storm that left 1-2" of ice along the North Shore inland areas, and it decimated the woods. Doesn't look like we will come even close to that, but ice is never good. 

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11 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Going to be garbage over the next 1-2 weeks

Eh, to me garbage in early spring is sustained much BA conditions, which I'm not really seeing. Lots of temperature whiplash and chances for precip, which we need.

Edit: @Chicago Storm beat me to the punch. Although, conditions can vary quite a bit across the region. I've seen on here how someone from Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Dayton/Cincinnati can have entirely different perceptions of a given season.

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Rain moving in with a band of snow across the N areas of the region. Temps are running low 30's inland to mid 30's on the shore. They could see some icing in the inland areas. Windy off the Lake gusting up to 25-30. Looks like the next round will be snow this weekend, but I might be on the N extent. South Shore should do well, and DLH. 

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