michsnowfreak Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 3 hours ago, Cary67 said: Snow drought ended Skyrocketed MSP up to 25.6", so they are still well below normal. However additional potential likely lies ahead in March. I thought Rochester MN would do better. They only got around 3" and sit at 15.8" on season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 2 hours ago, nwohweather said: I can confirm the Keweenaw is getting a true blizzard Wouldn't surprise me in some of those lakeshore areas, though I don't see any official obs that it was a blizzard. Definitely blizzard conditions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Ive learned over the years that there are very few TRUE blizzards. Quite a few strong storms have blizzard or near blizzard conditions, but very few true blizzards. I see time and time again these NWS offices issue blizzard warnings and when you check the conditions, it does not end up being a blizzard. Many times its not even really close. Locally, the storms of 1999, 2005, and 2015 and Im sure multiple others had the criteria met for snow reducing visibility to 1/4 or less for 3+ consecutive hours, but sustained winds were not 35mph+. I would imagine Buffalo and its southern suburbs sees true blizzard conditions fairly often, albeit that's due to the convective nature of the snow with the long fetch and friction from the lake enhancing the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 10 minutes ago, Powerball said: I would imagine Buffalo and its southern suburbs sees true blizzard conditions fairly often, albeit that's due to the convective nature of the snow with the long fetch and friction from the lake enhancing the wind. Yes, in narrow bands. And probably the open Plains. I mean, I always take the word "blizzard" with a grain of salt because so many of our great storms feel and look like a blizzard in every sense of the word but are technically not. It's why unlike many I couldn't care less whether it's a winter storm warning or blizzard warning. I don't make or agree with the official NWS definition of a blizzard, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 41 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Skyrocketed MSP up to 25.6", so they are still well below normal. However additional potential likely lies ahead in March. I thought Rochester MN would do better. They only got around 3" and sit at 15.8" on season. Average to date here is 41.3” so still -15.7” on the season but this made a huge dent and the long range holds promise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 6 Share Posted March 6 Got about a half inch of snow and sleet. Winds are picking up. Just had a gust of at least 40 mph shake the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Thursday at 12:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 12:51 PM Models have bumped the main snow swath north in the DVN area for tonight/tomorrow. Looking more like a 1" type event for this area, and probably a DAB or DAB+ at MLI. Cedar Rapids area looks to be the jackpot in the DVN area per usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Thursday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:02 PM Icy roads this morning with flash freeze and a dusting of snow. Temps fell to 27F with wind chills in the teens following yesterdays 56F and damp. Sounds like lots of accidents this morning with the icy roads. The temp fall was forecast, so not sure why they didnt salt good. Lord knows they had no problem dumping heaps of salt from late Nov thru Feb lol. Storm total imby 0.79" precip, 0.2" snow. DTW 0.86" precip, 0.2" snow. Season snow is at 27.7" imby and 26.7" DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Thursday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:05 PM 12 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Average to date here is 41.3” so still -15.7” on the season but this made a huge dent and the long range holds promise. DTW's 26.7" is -12.3" to date. More promise in MSP than here, although knowing our Mar/Apr history and the forecast SSW, I definitely can see some more snow following next weeks warmup. Every year in late winter/spring I mention how annoying the phrase "stat padder" snow is, but this year itll be even more annoying . After we stretched this seasons snowfall pretty far with snowcover days, it absolutely wouldnt hurt to bump up the total with some "stat padder" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Thursday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:30 PM 8 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Models have bumped the main snow swath north in the DVN area for tonight/tomorrow. Looking more like a 1" type event for this area, and probably a DAB or DAB+ at MLI. Cedar Rapids area looks to be the jackpot in the DVN area per usual. top 10 5 3 event of the season incoming? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:26 PM Chicago NWS While the strength of this system is expected to begin a weakening trend as it encounters more confluent mid-level flow across the western Great Lakes on Friday, there is concern that the snow could still fall at moderate to heavy rates at times (up to an inch per hour) during the day. This occurs as a band rather potent 850 to 700 mb frontogenesis looks to set up right across northern IL during the late morning and afternoon. Model cross sections across this tightening baroclinic zone depict a rather classic frontogenetical response, with forced ascent right into a layer characterized by negative Theta-E lapse rates (convectively unstable) through the DGZ. This suggests that some narrow heaver bands of snow will certainly be possible, with the most favored location for this being areas from I-80 northward late in the morning through the afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to remain near freezing across far northern IL during the snowfall into Friday afternoon. Accordingly, this raises questions as to the extent of road snow accumulations and hence if any real travel impacts other than reduced visibilities will materialize. Current thinking is that most areas will only see some slushy accumulations on area roads, but in an areas that happen to fall under one of the more intense narrow bands, the snow may fall at a high enough rate to result in some snow covered roads and possible travel impacts. Unfortunately, however, the exact locations in which these narrow intense snow bands setup are very difficult to pinpoint with any degree of skill this far out. At this time, the most favored area for these bands of heavy snow resides north of I-80 in northern IL. The precipitation will come to an end by early Friday evening. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) look favorable north of I-80. Farther south, (south of I-80) warmer temperatures will limit accumulations, and may even result in any lingering precipitation falling as rain in the afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:45 PM this is our moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:04 PM Looks like the largest snowfall at ORD so far this season is 2.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted Thursday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:18 PM 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Looks like the largest snowfall at ORD so far this season is 2.9". Correct, twice. Feb 12-13th and Nov 21st. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted Thursday at 10:26 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:26 PM Models are shifting the band north into our area. Need to turn the fans on to blow this southward 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted Thursday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:44 PM Figured we were well below normal for DJF. Not really. Pretty normal temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 12:15 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:15 AM 30 minutes ago, Jonger said: Figured we were well below normal for DJF. Not really. Pretty normal temps. DTW Dec: +2.0° Jan: -2.8° Feb: -1.9° DJF: -0.9° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted Friday at 12:16 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:16 AM 30 minutes ago, Jonger said: Figured we were well below normal for DJF. Not really. Pretty normal temps. It was a little below normal. It just felt colder because the last two winters were ridiculously warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted Friday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:31 AM 10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: DTW's 26.7" is -12.3" to date. More promise in MSP than here, although knowing our Mar/Apr history and the forecast SSW, I definitely can see some more snow following next weeks warmup. Every year in late winter/spring I mention how annoying the phrase "stat padder" snow is, but this year itll be even more annoying . After we stretched this seasons snowfall pretty far with snowcover days, it absolutely wouldnt hurt to bump up the total with some "stat padder" snow. It wasn’t until 4 days out on this latest storm that the prospects of accumulating snow became a realistic possibility, anything can happen and that’s what makes weather awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 01:32 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:32 AM Models have shifted the Iowa snow band north today, maybe putting me on the southern edge. 1-3" looks like a good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted Friday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Friday at 04:28 AM Looking to thread the needle on an inch of snow. Spring can’t come soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Friday at 10:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 10:52 AM looking forward to the Sunday-Tuesday period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 11:47 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:47 AM might go out and try for some coho sunday edit: maybe saturday anyone in chicago shoot me a pm if you even want to fish montrose/lakefront 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Friday at 12:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 12:48 PM Light rain/snow mix here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Friday at 01:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:03 PM march temps probably gonna keep this from being the event of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:32 PM I got 1.5" of snow overnight. Last hour, huge flakes were dumping down. Now in between bands, it will likely start to melt. The marginal temp across the state is making it difficult to accumulate well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Friday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:37 PM The GFS had been the one model bringing a cold front through Monday night, which would ruin our chance at 70s Tuesday. Other models kept pushing the big warmth, even the Euro. It appears the GFS was correct. We'll still be warm, but maybe not quite as warm as models had been suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted Friday at 02:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 02:14 PM 16 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this is our moment Narrator voice - “it was in fact, not their moment” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted Friday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:01 PM 13 hours ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: It wasn’t until 4 days out on this latest storm that the prospects of accumulating snow became a realistic possibility, anything can happen and that’s what makes weather awesome. One thing thats particularly intriguing about spring snowstorms, unlike any other season, is that there is absolutely NO way to realistically guess with ANY lead time if youll get one or not this year. The data speaks for itself. Some of the warmest springs have suddenly had a dynamic snowstorm spring up and hit us. And some cold springs get next to nothing snow-wise (and of course, some cold springs yield good snows and some warm springs yield nada). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted Friday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:51 PM 49 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Some of the warmest springs have suddenly had a dynamic snowstorm spring up and hit us. Good one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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