Matthew70 Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:13 AM On 3/24/2025 at 8:44 AM, nrgjeff said: Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011. April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011. I am one that believes tornadoes follow a pattern or a rotation (no pun intended) of going thru certain area/landscapes. Examples here in the midstate state. Hendersonville/Gallatin is the north path. Dickson/Nashville/Lebanon (I40 path) Lobeville/Columbia/Springhill path. Lewisburg/Murfreesboro/Manchester path Waynesboro/Lawrenburg/Ethridge path I believe it’s only a matter of time during this rotation that Murfreesboro & the south paths see a tornado of significance come through. I know sounds crazy & ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 01:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:40 PM Things like that happen in central Oklahoma too. Why do people keep moving back to Moore? Excellent schools sells houses! Anyway the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts still look similar. Details are TBD. I just want to figure out Sunday first, ha! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:53 PM 32 this morning and the dense air has pushed the smoke from a controlled burn near my house down to the ground. It's like I'm in a thick thick fog. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 PM That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 10 hours ago, nrgjeff said: That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. It appears to me it’s going to be west of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago After the severe weather and flooding this week, weather pattern may turn cool and quiet for much of the rest of April. First of all Wednesday looks a lot like Sunday with Mid-South severe rolling into Tenn. SPC chart even looks like a copy/paste. Upper jet is stronger. LLJ will depend on wave timing. Ditto Thursday. One real problem with the LLJ, while fluctuating, constantly runs up and over a quasi-stationary boundary. WPC forecast QPF unfortunately could be reasonable. And now what might help quiet things down after the weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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