Matthew70 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 On 3/24/2025 at 8:44 AM, nrgjeff said: Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011. April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011. I am one that believes tornadoes follow a pattern or a rotation (no pun intended) of going thru certain area/landscapes. Examples here in the midstate state. Hendersonville/Gallatin is the north path. Dickson/Nashville/Lebanon (I40 path) Lobeville/Columbia/Springhill path. Lewisburg/Murfreesboro/Manchester path Waynesboro/Lawrenburg/Ethridge path I believe it’s only a matter of time during this rotation that Murfreesboro & the south paths see a tornado of significance come through. I know sounds crazy & ridiculous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Things like that happen in central Oklahoma too. Why do people keep moving back to Moore? Excellent schools sells houses! Anyway the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts still look similar. Details are TBD. I just want to figure out Sunday first, ha! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 27 Author Share Posted March 27 32 this morning and the dense air has pushed the smoke from a controlled burn near my house down to the ground. It's like I'm in a thick thick fog. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10 hours ago, nrgjeff said: That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck! Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. It appears to me it’s going to be west of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 After the severe weather and flooding this week, weather pattern may turn cool and quiet for much of the rest of April. First of all Wednesday looks a lot like Sunday with Mid-South severe rolling into Tenn. SPC chart even looks like a copy/paste. Upper jet is stronger. LLJ will depend on wave timing. Ditto Thursday. One real problem with the LLJ, while fluctuating, constantly runs up and over a quasi-stationary boundary. WPC forecast QPF unfortunately could be reasonable. And now what might help quiet things down after the weekend. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 Huge dislike for this stalled front. I've no interest in seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s in early April. The fires have already been ridiculous in the area and they will be primed again with 3 or 4 days of strong winds and hot weather. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 13 hours ago, John1122 said: Huge dislike for this stalled front. I've no interest in seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s in early April. The fires have already been ridiculous in the area and they will be primed again with 3 or 4 days of strong winds and hot weather. In 2023 we made it to July 1 before we hit 90. This year we may not make it through the first week of April. Friday and Saturday are going to be close. Official forecast is 88. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy! Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer! In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 2 Author Share Posted April 2 32 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy! Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer! In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four! I wish it was a little more SEC dominant but Houston is darn good. Yes, half the region is going to flood and the other half will possibly be dodging fires. I worry more about fires than anything else, my house is 30 feet from the edge of over 100k acres of unbroken forest. I've had two fires get close in the last 20 years. One had fire fighters in my backyard raking leaves in the woods and cutting stumps off on the ridge side to shovel dirt into them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 It's ridiculously warm. 71 at 2am, Oak Ridge is 77 with a heat index of 79, talk about summer hitting immediately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 6 hours ago, John1122 said: It's ridiculously warm. 71 at 2am, Oak Ridge is 77 with a heat index of 79, talk about summer hitting immediately. Yeah and just think in about 4 to 5 days having lows back around 20 degrees and we will see flow snow in WNC. CRAZY! Seems like we've had extremes in weather since last July. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Southeast Tennessee could have record high temps Friday. Then after the front.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Looking way down the line, the new seasonal Cansips has one glaring feature for DJF next winter....a MONSTER Alaskan ridge. The only reason it isn't frigid on seasonal surface maps here is a little ridge bellying into Texas. As is, the seasonal forecast is a Midwest trough w/ seasonal temps here. That "could" turn out to be a pretty cold look as we get closer. Summer looks warm. When is it not? LOL. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 On 4/3/2025 at 1:14 AM, John1122 said: It's ridiculously warm. 71 at 2am, Oak Ridge is 77 with a heat index of 79, talk about summer hitting immediately. I went to bed about 11AM Wed night before the storms here came trough and it was still 81.Today here we made it to 87 high,Nashville OBS says it was 86 so it missed the record of 87 in 1934 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 12z GFS 126. Interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 85 to this is quite a system shock. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Just a brutal flip in temps. On the positive, I went outside and mowed while it was misting this evening. It kept down the dust and wasn't ridiculously hot. Last week was insane for April in regards to temps here. We were CRUSHING daily record highs. Now, we are gonna have freeze warning up for tomorrow night! Crazy!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 This April 20 severe wx system keeps getting pushed back. When did severe become like snow? This after Chatty got two nice snows, lol! Quiet weather pattern may be more favorable for star gazing and getting high on April 20. We'll see. End of April temps may get back to above normal. Seems like we get this mid-April cool snap every year. Then we can start Real Spring. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 13 Share Posted April 13 On 4/9/2025 at 11:56 AM, nrgjeff said: This April 20 severe wx system keeps getting pushed back. When did severe become like snow? This after Chatty got two nice snows, lol! Quiet weather pattern may be more favorable for star gazing and getting high on April 20. We'll see. End of April temps may get back to above normal. Seems like we get this mid-April cool snap every year. Then we can start Real Spring. Old timers call it dogwood winter…it is a real thing like thunder in the mountains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 14 Share Posted April 14 This winter will likely seemingly be warm,its rare to see back to back cold winters in our parts,we had plenty of chances to get a decent snow storm but nooooooooo..it happened down in or around the GOM,in which i feel really annoyed about,they got 2x,3x more snow than what we got here in a day than what we got in the season 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 14 Author Share Posted April 14 It's that time of year where I'm tempted to plant something but I know better. It was 29 one morning this week and 30 yesterday morning. These weekend 80s will have me ready for tomatoes to go in but I know as soon as I do we'll get a first week of May freeze. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted April 15 Share Posted April 15 Leaning very cold for next winter but it's early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 16 Share Posted April 16 Thursday may be the last cool morning for a while. But yeah, I still wouldn't plant tomatoes up on the Plateau. Weekend may have a late spring feel. Getting the weekend front south of I-40 will be a chore as the ol' SER perks up. Looks like next week the front finally drops behind the Sunday system. That looks like Mid-South straight to Midwest. Mercifully East Tennessee looks quiet Easter 2025. We have not forgotten Easter 2020. Then toward May the jet stream gets gummed up. Models are still moving things but slowly. Most ensemble members have normal precip. A few block out much of the Southeast esp GEFS. The EPS has more rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:09 PM Made it to 86 today,one degree F from tying the record 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Lots of rain in the forecast. We'll see if it actually comes to pass. Wildfires are still an issue in the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Monday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:15 PM Definitely need rain in middle south of I40. The winds have dried it out significantly. Drought & fires will be a more significant issue if we don’t get some soaking rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Monday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:21 PM Yes hopefully we can get decent coverage of thundershowers this week. Except for this Marginal, which really reminds me of a lumbering summer front, it doesn't look severe. Anyway the ol' boundary should help Tuesday and Wednesday as well, esp southern Tennessee border into MS/AL/GA. Then it looks like next week and perhaps the first full week of May the Region has slightly below normal precip. I'm not as optimistic as the CPC. We'll get days but not many. Ridge meanders from the Plains to Midwest, which will keep fronts fewer. No hardcore SER so temps should only be slightly AN. That same pattern in the summer would allow pop up storms but it'd also be humid. Whether we like it or not it could be a preview. That said I figure we'll get one more cool trough sometime in May before we go balls-to-the-wall until August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Hoping the forecast holds & we keep these 70s to low 80s rolling along with rain & storms every 3-4 days. I heard today that TN for the first time in a very long time has no drought in the entire state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago This weather pattern would get us through summer without drought. Heights are only slightly AN and the latest front got through our region (though not the Deep South). Later in summer if the center of the ridge is north then t-showers can pop up down here on the underside. That's a humid outcome though. Fortunately we probably still have another couple months (at least six week) of fronts getting through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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