Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion

[Matthew70]

On 3/24/2025 at 8:44 AM, nrgjeff said:

Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011.

April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011.

 

I am one that believes tornadoes follow a pattern or a rotation (no pun intended) of going thru certain area/landscapes.  
Examples here in the midstate state. 
Hendersonville/Gallatin is the north path.       
Dickson/Nashville/Lebanon (I40 path)            
Lobeville/Columbia/Springhill path.            
Lewisburg/Murfreesboro/Manchester path                                                             
Waynesboro/Lawrenburg/Ethridge path

I believe it’s only a matter of time during this rotation that Murfreesboro & the south paths see a tornado of significance come through.  
 

I know sounds crazy & ridiculous.  

 

[nrgjeff]

Things like that happen in central Oklahoma too. Why do people keep moving back to Moore? Excellent schools sells houses!

Anyway the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts still look similar. Details are TBD. I just want to figure out Sunday first, ha!

[John1122]

32 this morning and the dense air has pushed the smoke from a controlled burn near my house down to the ground. It's like I'm in a thick thick fog. 

[nrgjeff]

That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck!

Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. 

[Matthew70]

10 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

That crap happened in Chattanooga Wednesday and Thursday. Local fire with a slight temp inversion at just the wrong level and backing wind with height. All contributed to Metro wide yuck!

Looking ahead, Wednesday could be quite the severe weather day. Unlike Sunday's struggling LLJ set-up, kinematics looks robust at all levels on Wednesday. Instability should be there too. Still much depends on surface features. 

It appears to me it’s going to be west of TN.

[nrgjeff]

After the severe weather and flooding this week, weather pattern may turn cool and quiet for much of the rest of April. First of all Wednesday looks a lot like Sunday with Mid-South severe rolling into Tenn. SPC chart even looks like a copy/paste. Upper jet is stronger. LLJ will depend on wave timing. Ditto Thursday. One real problem with the LLJ, while fluctuating, constantly runs up and over a quasi-stationary boundary. WPC forecast QPF unfortunately could be reasonable. 

And now what might help quiet things down after the weekend.

[John1122]

Huge dislike for this stalled front. I've no interest in seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s in early April. The fires have already been ridiculous in the area and they will be primed again with 3 or 4 days of strong winds and hot weather. 

[dwagner88]

13 hours ago, John1122 said:

Huge dislike for this stalled front. I've no interest in seeing highs in the mid to upper 80s in early April. The fires have already been ridiculous in the area and they will be primed again with 3 or 4 days of strong winds and hot weather. 

In 2023 we made it to July 1 before we hit 90. This year we may not make it through the first week of April. Friday and Saturday are going to be close. Official forecast is 88.

[nrgjeff]

Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy!

Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer!

In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four!

[John1122]

32 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Even bigger dislike if the sand front sags south of one's location and it rains forever. But yeah record highs are possible south of it. Joy!

Then frost next week! I thought the Plains weather was wild until I moved to Tennessee. The Valley is like, hold my beer!

In between I'm looking for a proper trough ejection on Saturday. Probably won't happen. More QLCS trash. At least we have the SEC dominant Final Four!

I wish it was a little more SEC dominant but Houston is darn good. 

Yes, half the region is going to flood and the other half will possibly be dodging fires. I worry more about fires than anything else, my house is 30 feet from the edge of over 100k acres of unbroken forest.  I've had two fires get close in the last 20 years. One had fire fighters in my backyard raking leaves in the woods and cutting stumps off on the ridge side to shovel dirt into them. 

 

[John1122]

It's ridiculously warm.  71 at 2am, Oak Ridge is 77 with a heat index of 79, talk about summer hitting immediately.

[Met1985]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

It's ridiculously warm.  71 at 2am, Oak Ridge is 77 with a heat index of 79, talk about summer hitting immediately.

Yeah and just think in about 4 to 5 days having lows back around 20 degrees and we will see flow snow in WNC. CRAZY! Seems like we've had extremes in weather since last July.

[nrgjeff]

Southeast Tennessee could have record high temps Friday. Then after the front..

[Carvers Gap]

Looking way down the line, the new seasonal Cansips has one glaring feature for DJF next winter....a MONSTER Alaskan ridge.  The only reason it isn't frigid on seasonal surface maps here is a little ridge bellying into Texas.  As is, the seasonal forecast is a Midwest trough w/ seasonal temps here.  That "could" turn out to be a pretty cold look  as we get closer.  Summer looks warm.  When is it not?  LOL.