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Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion


John1122
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11 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Cove Mt in Wears Valley had sustained winds of 57mph and recorded a gust to 97 around 11:45pn when the station went dead. 

Incredible.  

I am usually spared the high winds that the foothills get.  I was surprised the winds here were that strong yesterday. Often, there will be wind advisories or warnings in the foothills, and it will just be breezy here.  I am going to have to go back and look, but the winds yesterday may have been as bad as Helene IMBY or worse.  Fortunately the ground was not soggy.  I didn't see many trees down.  I think the high winds from last fall purged any weaker trees and empties tries of weaker limbs.  

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I did not have a true dusting at my house, but did have a tiny amount on the cars and rooftops. There must have been a few heavier bands though because there were places around town here that did receive a solid dusting. 

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Barring any more Snow this Season my final Snowfall Total is 19.9 inches. Ww were on the Southern boundary of the Average to above area . I noticed the National Snow and Ice Database Map has us about half of Actual. I contacted them last Week regarding this via Email and haven't gotten a response. I assume they lumped us in with KTRI and KTYS or the erroneous Pennington gap Site .

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Models refuse to connect the warm Strato with the 500 mb level. Could be yet another one that just fires blanks. Next path to cod might be the MJO and increasing GLAAM. However by late March I don't want that. Who really wants that? We're ready for spring. I'm ready for other things associated with spring too!

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Mercifully the 5-day average forecast 500 mb heights into April doesn't look much like 2011. That year a persistent trough sat in the Rockies. If you are storm anxious, try not to worry about 2011.

April 2025 I believe the Mid-South will be more active than Average, but that's still far short of historic 2011.

image.png.212519e93d3596d1e049b038b368fae9.png

image.png.94e7bd9670abf4632c8a90d97c2f6717.png

 

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13 hours ago, Spartman said:

Shades of '11

Pretty sure the CFS has already backed off considerably on that.

Noah Bergren was the guy who was on air with Trent Okerson at WPSD covering the December 2021 tornado outbreak live. Now he's at FOX 35 in Orlando.
 

 

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Follow up to my post above. April looks above normal, but not 2011 crazy. Still holds. Now we might get a good chunk of that activity the first 7-10 days of April. Then the quieter ridge pattern is forecast. Here is the 6-10 day and 11-15 day 500 mb charts, which basically goes until April 8. Keep in mind that could go Midwest instead of Mid-South. We'll see.

image.png.a0092eff3a88dca1312673d12e6cd318.png  image.png.bff1255e49e462687361b827e0e86144.png

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