John1122 Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 The GFS joined the Euro with some potential snowy hi-jinks to welcome met spring. As was noted, virtually all decent March/April snows over the last 50 years featured a cooperative or at least non-hostile pacific and MJO in Phase 2/3. It looks like we may be hanging out in 2 around the time the snowfall is showing up on the models. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Following some cold this weekend and again late next week.. All weekly charts have a marked shift to trough west SER for the middle of March. Fly in the ointment is an attempted active strato. Otherwise it could be stormy Too early to know if that's the MId-South or MIdwest early season chasing, but buckle up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Following some cold this weekend and again late next week.. All weekly charts have a marked shift to trough west SER for the middle of March. Fly in the ointment is an attempted active strato. Otherwise it could be stormy Too early to know if that's the MId-South or MIdwest early season chasing, but buckle up! Yeah, looking like a warm rest of March after the 12th or so providing the Strat doesn't initiate Blocking and alter things as you alluded to. Hopefully, we squeeze out one last decent Snow Event during first 10 days of the Month. Bring on the Warmth afterward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 27 Share Posted February 27 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March. Could foul up the prospects of a warm April. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies and 0Z extended GEFS (today’s not out yet) actually had the highest chances yet of any of these runs for a mid-Mar major SSW or FW fwiw: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 After this weekend hard freeze it looks as if spring is here & is taking over. Hopefully no more hard freezes because these warm temps of 60s to 70s will make plants & trees come alive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Yeah I'm over talking about 32 deg. Let's talk about Td 68 deg. And off to the severe wx thread. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted March 1 Author Share Posted March 1 7 hours ago, Matthew70 said: After this weekend hard freeze it looks as if spring is here & is taking over. Hopefully no more hard freezes because these warm temps of 60s to 70s will make plants & trees come alive. The Euro has widespread 20s towards next weekend. If this were early to mid April most would be done with them, but I expect freeze threats until at least then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 11:39 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 AM "A" for effort by the 6z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Monday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:25 PM Indeed we have more cold fronts coming. I may be over 32 but it's not over for the Valley. Start with later this week. Then the strato forecast is back after a flop. See how that goes later in March. In between the two? See severe wx thread for next week too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted Monday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:04 PM The latest gfs shows several opportunities for winter weather coming up, hopefully one of them is more than token flakes.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:02 PM 55 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said: The latest gfs shows several opportunities for winter weather coming up, hopefully one of them is more than token flakes. . Yeah. The MJO now appears to stall in 2/3 and what Jeff alluded to above is now showing effect on the Runs. The LR CPC warm 6-10 day Outlook may be in Jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:54 AM Not surprised at the signal of MJO saying cold spring being in 2/3. Last few springs have been cold. I’m feeling the EPO changing is going to take us back to the 60’s/70’s type winters. I could be totally wrong but this was the coldest winter in America in a long time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM WWA for up to 3 inches of snow here in Cumberland County tonight. That'd be impressive 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted Wednesday at 07:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:00 PM WWA for up to 3 inches of snow here in Cumberland County tonight. That'd be impressive Hope some of that makes it over to Oneida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Wednesday at 07:08 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:08 PM 3 hours ago, Shocker0 said: WWA for up to 3 inches of snow here in Cumberland County tonight. That'd be impressive Models have been bulls-eyeing your area for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted Wednesday at 10:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:09 PM 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Models have been bulls-eyeing your area for a few days now. Yeah I've been seeing that, but surprised NWS agreed. Looks like the heaviest is expected to strattle the border of Cumberland/Putnam, which is typical here. Maybe the ground will turn white at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 10:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:14 PM Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM 5 hours ago, John1122 said: Models have been bulls-eyeing your area for a few days now. You getting anything frozen now? Radar is looking like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted Thursday at 12:36 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:36 AM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Wind gusts pushing 50mph here at TRI. Sustained winds are as strong as I can remember in some time. Cove Mt in Wears Valley had sustained winds of 57mph and recorded a gust to 97 around 11:45pn when the station went dead. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 01:22 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:22 AM 47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: You getting anything frozen now? Radar is looking like it. Yes. It's 36 degrees with snow/graupel. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 03:19 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:19 AM Down to 33 now with nickels and quarters coming in waves that last a few minutes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Thursday at 04:14 AM Switched over to snow here too now. A decent snow shower is currently passing through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 04:52 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 04:52 AM Heavy snow shower out there currently. 32 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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