John1122 Posted Wednesday at 06:51 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:51 AM The GFS joined the Euro with some potential snowy hi-jinks to welcome met spring. As was noted, virtually all decent March/April snows over the last 50 years featured a cooperative or at least non-hostile pacific and MJO in Phase 2/3. It looks like we may be hanging out in 2 around the time the snowfall is showing up on the models. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:57 PM Following some cold this weekend and again late next week.. All weekly charts have a marked shift to trough west SER for the middle of March. Fly in the ointment is an attempted active strato. Otherwise it could be stormy Too early to know if that's the MId-South or MIdwest early season chasing, but buckle up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 12:58 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:58 AM 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Following some cold this weekend and again late next week.. All weekly charts have a marked shift to trough west SER for the middle of March. Fly in the ointment is an attempted active strato. Otherwise it could be stormy Too early to know if that's the MId-South or MIdwest early season chasing, but buckle up! Yeah, looking like a warm rest of March after the 12th or so providing the Strat doesn't initiate Blocking and alter things as you alluded to. Hopefully, we squeeze out one last decent Snow Event during first 10 days of the Month. Bring on the Warmth afterward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:46 AM 18z GFS has great slp placement at 252. Probably the last window. As Jeff noted, things flip warm mid-month. The MJO looks like it will go to warm phases after the 15th or so. None of that is a surprise. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:25 PM Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:12 PM 46 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March. Could foul up the prospects of a warm April. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:15 PM Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Friday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:14 PM 12z CMC(192) is trying to get interesting regarding wintry precip. The GFS and ICON do not have it...so beware. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:21 PM 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies and 0Z extended GEFS (today’s not out yet) actually had the highest chances yet of any of these runs for a mid-Mar major SSW or FW fwiw: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Friday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:25 PM 4 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah the SSW busted. Now there is talk about an MJO driven event from below, with strato reflection. That's a lot that has to go right. MJO convection is split, so I'm very skeptical. Believe myself, but what is happening in east Australia it seems these tropical systems are from CCKW'S,out into the IO is seemingly is a ERW. moving through the IO,this seemingly will stall out the MJO signal into Africa,Western IO upcoming https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-pacific-tropical-cyclones-rae-seru-alfred-unusual/ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Saturday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:35 PM After this weekend hard freeze it looks as if spring is here & is taking over. Hopefully no more hard freezes because these warm temps of 60s to 70s will make plants & trees come alive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Saturday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:32 PM Yeah I'm over talking about 32 deg. Let's talk about Td 68 deg. And off to the severe wx thread. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Saturday at 11:43 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:43 PM 7 hours ago, Matthew70 said: After this weekend hard freeze it looks as if spring is here & is taking over. Hopefully no more hard freezes because these warm temps of 60s to 70s will make plants & trees come alive. The Euro has widespread 20s towards next weekend. If this were early to mid April most would be done with them, but I expect freeze threats until at least then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 18z March 9th time frame still looks interesting, and has for a while. Any system taking the low road during Feb is probably coming north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago "A" for effort by the 6z GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Indeed we have more cold fronts coming. I may be over 32 but it's not over for the Valley. Start with later this week. Then the strato forecast is back after a flop. See how that goes later in March. In between the two? See severe wx thread for next week too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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