2025-2026 ENSO

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, I love fall baseball.... looks like the Tigers and Yankees will both be good enough to play deep into Fall.  

We had some snow here on parts of Long Island before the sun came out, it really feels like winter here today with temperatures going below freezing tonight.  It's the latest it's happened since 2014, when we had accumulating snow on April 16, 2014.  We had snow on May 9, 2020 but the low was 34 on that date. Ironically our last freeze that season was in early March lol.

 

 

Spring of 2020. Oh boy lol. A 1.3" snowfall on Apr 15th was followed by 3.4" on Apr 17th. Then an unprecedented 5 days in a row of snow in  May (May 8-12) which peaked as a half inch of wet snow on the 10th (Mothers Day).

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

But they are relative states of the same weather on the equator.. if one is less than, than the greater than should have opposite effects. The reason why both appear bad is because of lack of data, and because historically stronger La Nina's have usually been west-based, which is focused near 180W/0. If the La Nina was east-based like these massive Strong El Nino's have been, then you might see a very cold pattern in the northern US and Canada. 

It sounds like we need way more than one axis to delineate the differences between different enso states.  In other words, instead of recording weak/moderate/strong we should also distinguish them in the data west vs east based vs basin wide.  

It reminds me of the arguments made for nao needing to be defined as more than just positive vs negative, we also need to know whether it's west based or east based.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is something I've always advocated for, use precipitation totals to account for snowfall measuring errors.  I would use a sliding scale snowfall to liquid ratio based on temperatures.  8:1 for heavier wet snow, 10:1 for normal snow and 15:1 for dry and fluffy snow.

I use a standard NWS rain gauge. So I do it the "old-fashioned" and fool proof way. Melt each snowfall. By doing this you will find that all snowfalls are different, although your sliding scale is an excellent base. Many ASOS have problems with drier snow, so you will see some slightly underdone totals which just baffles me that we have to deal with this in 2025, but it is what it is.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Spring of 2020. Oh boy lol. A 1.3" snowfall on Apr 15th was followed by 3.4" on Apr 17th. Then an unprecedented 5 days in a row of snow in  May (May 8-12) which peaked as a half inch of wet snow on the 10th (Mothers Day).

The Mets game that was supposed to be tonight has been rescheduled for 1 PM today.

I've advocated for this for a long time now too.  Like, in the spring and summer, if you know it's going to rain, why not schedule a game earlier? One of the most frustrating things about baseball is when you have an off day and the weather is nice and sunny and the next day it's going to rain and everyone knows it, and then you have two days off instead of just one.  The game should be rescheduled earlier, to the off day the day before (if the other team also has that day off of course), instead of sitting around doing nothing for two days.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, here's what Strong La Nina's would look like if they were completely east-based like the Strongest El Nino's:

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, east vs west-based ENSO is different. East has more of a North Pacific high correlation, and west is more connected to PNA.

Modoki El Nino has a more conducive set up for -NAO, as well. East-based La Nina tends to have the  more poleward Aleitan ridging that allows for more cold intrusions into N AM.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I use a standard NWS rain gauge. So I do it the "old-fashioned" and fool proof way. Melt each snowfall. By doing this you will find that all snowfalls are different, although your sliding scale is an excellent base. Many ASOS have problems with drier snow, so you will see some slightly underdone totals which just baffles me that we have to deal with this in 2025, but it is what it is.

Thanks! I've also noticed they have problems with drier snow that happens in windy conditions so a lot of our big blizzards get undermeasured.  We have several examples of this both more recently and in the distant past.

February 2003*

January 1996*

February 1978

February 1969*

February 1961*

March 1888

This is just an off the top of my head list, I'm sure there are many more.

Sometimes we cross check the data with the airports to see what the errors might be.

The ones marked with a * show significantly higher totals at the airports (JFK, LGA, EWR) than at the park.

Of course there were no airports before the 1930s lol.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The Mets game that was supposed to be tonight has been rescheduled for 1 PM today.

I've advocated for this for a long time now too.  Like, in the spring and summer, if you know it's going to rain, why not schedule a game earlier? One of the most frustrating things about baseball is when you have an off day and the weather is nice and sunny and the next day it's going to rain and everyone knows it, and then you have two days off instead of just one.  The game should be rescheduled earlier, to the off day the day before (if the other team also has that day off of course), instead of sitting around doing nothing for two days.

Its very frustrating for fans who had tickets tho. Its one of those things that will never make everyone happy. Its VERY tricky to schedule baseball based on a forecast tho. I have seen summer games where they delay the start due to a forecasted thunderstorm that never really hits the stadium area lol.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Modoki El Nino has a more conducive set up for -NAO, as well. East-based La Nina tends to have the  more poleward Aleitan ridging that allows for more cold intrusions into N AM.

I don't think NAO associated with ENSO is as highly correlated as you think.. it might just be a coincidence of sample years so far (6/8 or something). They do connect with Stratosphere though.. +QBO and La Nina favors +AO, while -QBO and El Nino favors -AO. 

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks! I've also noticed they have problems with drier snow that happens in windy conditions so a lot of our big blizzards get undermeasured.  We have several examples of this both more recently and in the distant past.

February 2003

January 1996

February 1978

February 1969

February 1961

March 1888

This is just an off the top of my head list, I'm sure there are many more.

 

Oh yes! Dry snow = bad for ASOS. Dry snow AND wind = nightmare for ASOS.  Its less of an issue with a standard rain gauge but still not fool proof.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Its very frustrating for fans who had tickets tho. Its one of those things that will never make everyone happy. Its VERY tricky to schedule baseball based on a forecast tho. I have seen summer games where they delay the start due to a forecasted thunderstorm that never really hits the stadium area lol.

Oh wow then they want to protest lol.  I remember that happening a few times and the other thing is when the fans sit in the rain and the game doesn't get canceled until 3+ hours later and it's been raining the entire time.

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, here's what Strong La Nina's would look like if they were completely east-based like the Strongest El Nino's:

I'm wondering if we had these in the 1910s? There were extremely cold and very snowy strong la ninas back then.  Also, was 2010-11 like this? That was a very cold and very snowy stronger la nina that had people looking at analogs from the 1910s.

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Spring of 2020. Oh boy lol. A 1.3" snowfall on Apr 15th was followed by 3.4" on Apr 17th. Then an unprecedented 5 days in a row of snow in  May (May 8-12) which peaked as a half inch of wet snow on the 10th (Mothers Day).

Funny thing is that was a winter with very little snow, all the fun began later in Spring.  One of our weirder years!

What caused that arctic outbreak accompanied by snow in May? Did we have some sort of big SSW?

I was in the Poconos for that we went from rain to snow Friday night and 1-3 inches and then snow squalls all day Saturday with an additional inch.  The temps were in the teens for lows and in the 20s for highs with wind chills near 0!  Then spring came back by Monday and we had thunderstorms with hail!  One of the weirder but fun weekends I've experienced in May.

We had snow on May 9-10 1977 and this happened on the 43rd anniversary of that, which was also interesting.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see what has been happening over the Pacific by looking at where the SSTs have been warming the fastest. The reason that we have been seeing more frequent La Ninas is due to the WPAC warming at a faster rate than the EPAC. So it causes stronger trade winds near the Dateline. This works against El Niño development. So when we finally tip the system back to El Niño it has to be very strong in order to develop against the very strong La Ninas background state. We saw the El Niño struggle to develop in 12-13 and 14-15 only to finally push through with the super El Niño in 15-16. Then again in 23-24. 

But something shifted in the spring of 2023 with the record warming in the EPAC. This warming off the South American Coast is continuing into April 2025. So the La Niña this winter was among the weakest we have seen since 1950 coming off such a strong El Niño. The rapid increase in global warming last 2 years may suggest that we have experienced a new type of Pacific shift. One in which the system is tilted more to El Niño development. If the EPAC warming persists into the summer, then it may inhibit the typical 2nd year La Ninas which has been the norm recently. So if any type of El Niño can push through from 25-26 to 26-27, then we me be in uncharted territory. But we will need more data going forward to confirm this new hypothesis. 

Ultimately, we will need to see a shift in the record Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 18-19 with the lowest cumulative 7 year snowfall on record from Philly to Boston for any snowfall improvement. This is very uncertain since the competing marine heatwaves in the North Pacific blur the distinctions between what we expect from a -PDO and +PDO.   The next 5-7 years will probably be make or break as to whether this snowfall regime since 18-19 is a new climate feature or something that can shift a bit going forward. 

Long term we expect snowfall to decrease as the climate and the storm tracks warm. So using a linear understanding of the climate we could say that we get years of ups and others with more downs as the general trend line on snowfall is down. But if we see more of a non linear shift with the snow, then the decline could occur faster than then a general decrease along a linear path. Since snowfall measurement methodology shifted since the 1980s. From late 1800s into mid 1900s snowfall was under measured by today’s standards. So when the snowfall record is corrected higher from 1880 to 1980 or so, most areas will show a steady decline away from the Great Lakes snow belts with more frequent measurements these days than in the old days inflating the present totals. 
 

 

 

Absolutely agree with the underlined portion.

 

As for the last portion, you keep acting like this is standardized and it is not. The fact of the matter is that the predominate type of snowfall measurtement has moved away from the 6 hour swipe method with the exception of the major airports. The majority of spotters are not clearing and are discouraged from doing so. In March 2018, I had a 31.5" snowfall total discounted by the NWS because it was obtained but the 6 hour clear method...they accepted another report from that same town of 25", which was uncoincidentally was my final depth.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely agree with the underlined portion.

 

As for the last portion, you keep acting like this is standardized and it is not. The fact of the matter is that the predominate type of snowfall measurtement has moved away from the 6 hour swipe method with the exception of the major airports. The majority of spotters are not clearing and are discouraged from doing so. In March 2018, I had a 31.5" snowfall total discounted by the NWS because it was obtained but the 6 hour clear method...they accepted another report from that same town of 25", which was uncoincidentally was my final depth.

wow so the generally accepted method now is to only measure snowfall at the end of the storm (or when it changes over in case of a mixed precip type event), Ray?

I wonder how this affects past storms.... how much did you measure in the April Fools Day storm in 1997 and what method did you use for measuring it, Ray?

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think NAO associated with ENSO is as highly correlated as you think.. it might just be a coincidence of sample years so far (6/8 or something). They do connect with Stratosphere though.. +QBO and La Nina favors +AO, while -QBO and El Nino favors -AO. 

Not my premise....its peer reviewed literature. Do me a favor and look at a composite of Modoki events and east-based events....there is absolutely a difference within the NAO domain.

 

It is evident in the graphic below that Modoki, or basin-wide La Nina events, such as this one is likely to be, often feature the seasonal nadir for the NAO near the bookends of the season in December and March. In contrast, east-based events are more likely to feature mid season NAO blocking and accompanying cold.

 

The behavior of the NAO is the reason why December is the coldest month of the CP la Nina composite, as the NAO is only moderately positive in the composite, while it is highly positive in January and February. The NAO averages slightly negative in November and March. Contrary to the CP la Nina years, the month of December is the most mild month of the EP composite because the NAO is neutral-negative, and is very negative the rest of the winter before ascending slightly in March. Thus the orientation of La Nina can play a vital role in not only the aggregate NAO value of the winter season, but also the overall progression. This is due both the aforementioned modulation of the Hadley Cell via convective forcing patterns and the oceanic circulation patterns that feedback into the Atlantic via subtropical jet bridges to sustain said forcing patterns. Zhang et al 2014 verify through several atmospheric simulations that CP la Nina favors an extratropical response redolent of a positive NAO configuration across north America and the north Atlantic. And EP La Nina favors negative NAO during the winter season due to a diametrically opposing atmospheric and oceanic circulation pattern. It is suggested that the subtropical jet bridges the connection between ENSO and the NAO. Essentially, the circulation pattern of the CP la Nina strengthens the Pacific subtropical jet, which augments the Atlantic jet and creates an anticyclonic circulation. This circulation configures SSTs in such a manner as to reinforce positive NAO through a wind-evaporation-SST feedback. 

 

The EP event has a diametrically opposed circulation pattern that weakens said subtropical Pacific jet, which in turn diminishes the Atlantic jet and fosters the development of an cyclonic circulation that sustains negative NAO via said wind-evaporation-SST feedback. This likely played a role in why the more eastern biased, strong hybrid la Nina season of 1955-1956 featured both high latitude blocking and poleward Aleutian ridging, while other years within the dataset, such as 1999-2000 and 1975-1976 were so much milder with a notable dearth of blocking. In fact, Zhang even referred to basin-wide events as "hybrid" or "mixed" events, since they often display characteristics of both east-based and Modoki events. Due to the fact that this season is likely to feature a central-based, hybrid event of weak intensity with a moderate ocean-atmosphere interface, odds favor a +AO and NAO consistent with a fairly strong polar vortex in the mean. The months of December and March may be most prone to an episode(s) of -AO/NAO. However, variance in this data set is high, thus it is imperative to consider alternative outcomes. Obviously, weaker SST anomalies present within more marginal La Nina events have a reduced ability to couple with the atmosphere, thus other extra tropical factors play a more prominent role. This means that the correlation of the NAO to the structure of La Nina is reduced in weaker ENSO events. This is also why some weaker CP events, such as the 2008-2009 and 2000-2001 events, did not feature a very prominent positive NAO signal and were thus more prone to episodes of blocking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

wow so the generally accepted method now is to only measure snowfall at the end of the storm (or when it changes over in case of a mixed precip type event), Ray?

Problem is that its not consistent, so I don't know how anyone can claim anything.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Problem is that its not consistent, so I don't know how anyone can claim anything.

It makes it really unscientific. =\

You had such a high total from March 2018, I wonder if it displaces April 1997 as your greatest spring snowstorm? What did you measure in that storm, Ray, and what method did you use for measuring it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not my premise....its peer reviewed literature. Do me a favor and look at a composite of Modoki events and east-based events....there is absolutely a difference within the NAO domain.

Given 100 more samples, I don't think you will see that as strongly. Maybe a 0.05 correlation/1 (5%). 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Given 100 more samples, I don't think you will see that as strongly. Maybe a 0.05 correlation/1 (5%). 

I disagree. Strong/east based El Nino absolutely favor +NAO....weaker/Modoki favor more -NAO periods.

Strong/Modoki La Nina favor +NAO.....weaker/east-based favor more -NAO periods.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree. Strong/east based El Nino absolutely favor +NAO....weaker/Modoki favor more -NAO periods.

Strong/Modoki La Nina favor +NAO.....weaker/east-based favor more -NAO periods.

The effect of ENSO is mostly on the Pacific.. the dataset is too limited to have statistical significance yet, wrt something more far away, like the NAO. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The effect of ENSO is mostly on the Pacific.. the dataset is too limited to have statistical significance yet, wrt something more far away, like the NAO. 

Okay, so its too limited to day that it doesn't...thus all we  can do is work with the sample that we have.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

When you collect enough data to refute this assertion in 80 years, you can leave it on my grave.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I understand it makes the whole system nice and easy, but there's little reason why ENSO would effect the NAO that much. NAO is not driven completely by what occurs over the Pacific. Not going to argue this more when it's saying that the data we have is not statistically significant, but the NAO is not likely to be consistently in the same states going forward as the 3/3 times weaker ENSO or whatever in the past.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When you collect enough data to refute this assertion in 80 years, you can leave it on my grave.

ENSO does slightly effect the Stratosphere. That's probably your best hook for this. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I understand it makes the whole system nice and easy, but there's little reason why ENSO would effect the NAO that much. NAO is not driven completely by what occurs over the Pacific. Not going to argue this more when it's saying that the data we have is not statistically significant, but the NAO is not likely to be consistently in the same states going forward as the 3/3 times weaker ENSO or whatever in the past.. 

 

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

ENSO does slightly effect the Stratosphere. That's probably your best hook for this. 

Well, I just referenced a peer reviewed article and 3/4 of a century worth of composites that corroborate said research, so I don't see what is "nice and easy" about that. It simply doesn't support your premise. Maybe in 50 years the data will change and you will be right, but for now....not so much.

BTW, I never said the NAO was "completey" driven by what occurs over the Pacific. This is why there is more variance in the weaker ENSO events.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I just don't think it's that high of a correlation.. people swear by datasets, but I can easily see the NAO deviating in future years.. maybe if we go back to the early 1900s there are a lot more wild card NAO happenings, as El Nino's and La Nina's both fluctuate from very warm to very cold in those composites. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Well, I just referenced a peer reviewed article and 3/4 of a century worth of composites that corroborate said research, so I don't see what is "nice and easy" about that. It simply doesn't support your premise. Maybe in 50 years the data will change and you will be right, but for now....not so much.

BTW, I never said the NAO was "completey" driven by what occurs over the Pacific. This is why there is more variance in the weaker ENSO events.

Yes, I read that the influence of enso state on our weather is around 20%.  So it's not huge, but it does matter.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't think it's that high of a correlation.. people swear by datasets, but I can easily see the NAO deviating in future years.. maybe if we go back to the early 1900s there are a lot more wild card NAO happenings, as El Nino's and La Nina's both fluctuate from very warm to very cold in those composites. 

Can you find me a strong, east-based El Nino that averaged a DM -NAO dating back to 1850? How about a strong, Modoki La Nina??

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I just don't think it's that high of a correlation.. people swear by datasets, but I can easily see the NAO deviating in future years.. maybe if we go back to the early 1900s there are a lot more wild card NAO happenings, as El Nino's and La Nina's both fluctuate from very warm to very cold in those composites. 

look at the 1910s as examples of that, maybe the 1800s too.