2025-2026 ENSO

[so_whats_happening]

1 minute ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

For sure again not everything is 1:1 in similarity but is interesting to see why the differences are occurring though. First third of the month has been strikingly similar in the 500mb setup, not to say it continues. You can start to see where the differences are with much more established +PDO pattern in 2014 we also were not fighting hard right now to quell a Nino like pattern through the EPAC trying to setup with flairs of Nina still around. The cold neutral in 13-14 didn't quickly erode through the east pac like we are seeing this year.

I hate to toot horns but bluewave does have a point with this Pac jet setup and those waters in the Pac mid latitudes are still playing games with the overall pattern progression. That is why im thinking the ocean tries to push a Nino but fails to actually connect and fully setup. Feel '26-'27 stands a better chance of Nino popping up, have to wait until we get through the spring barrier to see how things shape up because this shakes up severe weather season and eventually hurricane season. 

I don't expect a 14-15 season going forward although it would be very interesting to see happen lol

[PhiEaglesfan712]

March CPC ENSO update: 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

 

For sure again not everything is 1:1 in similarity but is interesting to see why the differences are occurring though. First third of the month has been strikingly similar in the 500mb setup, not to say it continues. You can start to see where the differences are with much more established +PDO pattern in 2014 we also were not fighting hard right now to quell a Nino like pattern through the EPAC trying to setup with flairs of Nina still around. The cold neutral in 13-14 didn't quickly erode through the east pac like we are seeing this year.

I agree, no analogs are perfect and that one proved among the most valuable.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I hate to toot horns but bluewave does have a point with this Pac jet setup and those waters in the Pac mid latitudes are still playing games with the overall pattern progression. That is why im thinking the ocean tries to push a Nino but fails to actually connect and fully setup. Feel '26-'27 stands a better chance of Nino popping up, have to wait until we get through the spring barrier to see how things shape up because this shakes up severe weather season and eventually hurricane season. 

I don't expect a 14-15 season going forward although it would be very interesting to see happen lol

Even a 2018-2019 set up in the absence of such a promient Pacific cold phase could be okay.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I see more similarity to 2013 than 2014: 

[michsnowfreak]

Just noticed there was a 2025-26 thread. Looking forward to some good discussion as the year rolls along.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2025 at 5:43 AM, so_whats_happening said:

 

It was really amazing to see the constant nay saying of a 2013-14 style repeat even when the signs of it really started to show at the end of summer into fall. As always there is never a 1:1 situation just wish folks would look at the broader sense of what is going on sometimes.

The storm tracks were radically different from that season though.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2025 at 5:43 AM, so_whats_happening said:

 

It was really amazing to see the constant nay saying of a 2013-14 style repeat even when the signs of it really started to show at the end of summer into fall. As always there is never a 1:1 situation just wish folks would look at the broader sense of what is going on sometimes.

This is much more like a late 80s winter with the southern snowstorms and less snow here.  A better match would be 88-89 even extending to December 1989.

 

[michsnowfreak]

It's wild to even think there were similarities between the winter of 2013-14 & 2024-25. I understand it's never a 1:1 comparison but the two were not even close. The winter of 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for Detroit, the snowiest (94.9"), by far the longest lasting deep snowpack, and the 8th coldest DJF and 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record. Not only was the cold constant from Nov-Apr, but it was EXTREMELY active, with a constant parade of storms. Meanwhile 2024-25 was mild Nov-Dec, cold Jan-Feb, and mild Mar. Snowfall sits at a below avg 26.9" to date and though we did have a snowcovered Jan/Feb, due to more bare than avg in Dec, we are sitting near normal for snowcover days to date. 

Again, I understand the comparisons will never be 1:1, but if similar patterns can yield such wildly different outcomes, then no matter how slam dunk a pattern may be, anyone in a northern climate should take everything with an extreme grain of salt. Ie: a crap winter won't necessarily yield a crap one this time, nor will a good winter pattern yield a good one.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's wild to even think there were similarities between the winter of 2013-14 & 2024-25. I understand it's never a 1:1 comparison but the two were not even close. The winter of 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for Detroit, the snowiest (94.9"), by far the longest lasting deep snowpack, and the 8th coldest DJF and 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record. Not only was the cold constant from Nov-Apr, but it was EXTREMELY active, with a constant parade of storms. Meanwhile 2024-25 was mild Nov-Dec, cold Jan-Feb, and mild Mar. Snowfall sits at a below avg 26.9" to date and though we did have a snowcovered Jan/Feb, due to more bare than avg in Dec, we are sitting near normal for snowcover days to date. 

Again, I understand the comparisons will never be 1:1, but if similar patterns can yield such wildly different outcomes, then no matter how slam dunk a pattern may be, anyone in a northern climate should take everything with an extreme grain of salt. Ie: a crap winter won't necessarily yield a crap one this time, nor will a good winter pattern yield a good one.

A better comparison is 1988-89, look into that one, even extending it all the way out to December 1989.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/13/2025 at 10:39 AM, so_whats_happening said:

I hate to toot horns but bluewave does have a point with this Pac jet setup and those waters in the Pac mid latitudes are still playing games with the overall pattern progression. That is why im thinking the ocean tries to push a Nino but fails to actually connect and fully setup. Feel '26-'27 stands a better chance of Nino popping up, have to wait until we get through the spring barrier to see how things shape up because this shakes up severe weather season and eventually hurricane season. 

I don't expect a 14-15 season going forward although it would be very interesting to see happen lol

October was a completely different pattern in the Pacific.. like opposite. I think some of November was too. I understand that this was the coldest nationwide since 13-14/14-15, but some of our cold this Winter was also -NAO driven, 13-14 had mostly +NAO for the Winter.. and now March is pretty much opposite again. The similarity was in the EPO Dec-Feb, as this was the first solidly neg EPO Winter since 13-14/14-15. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/14/2025 at 6:14 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I see more similarity to 2013 than 2014: 

That's not close either, it's likely going to be a top 10 warmest March for the CONUS. Chicago hit 79* yesterday, its highest March temp since 2012. 

Check out this March trend even before this year:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 3.4 has been on one heck of a warming trend.. made it up to +0.3, then finally down for the first day in a while today. 

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 3.4 has been on one heck of a warming trend.. made it up to +0.3, then finally down for the first day in a while today. 

Thanks, Chuck. Check out the lagging OHC’s impressively steep warmup during the same period:

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

A better comparison is 1988-89, look into that one, even extending it all the way out to December 1989.

Meh that one's not a great match either. Had a cold Fall and a torch January. 

Looking into other nina winters, i saw dome similarities to maybe a hybrid 1970-71/1971-72. But of course even then it's just similarities. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^I was pointing out in the Fall that 1955 was the only PDO analog that was close to our Fall PDO. That was interesting, because 55-56 was a cold Dec-Jan in the eastern 2/3 despite record neg PDO, then a warmer Feb. March isn't a match though. But for DJF, the 55-56 analog did come close to this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/15/2025 at 10:30 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I was pointing out in the Fall that 1955 was the only PDO analog that was close to our Fall PDO. That was interesting, because 55-56 was a cold Dec-Jan in the eastern 2/3 despite record neg PDO, then a warmer Feb. March isn't a match though. But for DJF, the 55-56 analog did come close to this year. 

1955-1956 is similar to 2013-2014 in the sense that the analog worked out on a larger scale, but the snowfall was conspicuously absent in the NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/15/2025 at 3:34 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's not close either, it's likely going to be a top 10 warmest March for the CONUS. Chicago hit 79* yesterday, its highest March temp since 2012. 

Check out this March trend even before this year:

Yes...that's been the general pattern.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 3/15/2025 at 10:30 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^I was pointing out in the Fall that 1955 was the only PDO analog that was close to our Fall PDO. That was interesting, because 55-56 was a cold Dec-Jan in the eastern 2/3 despite record neg PDO, then a warmer Feb. March isn't a match though. But for DJF, the 55-56 analog did come close to this year. 

The difference is that 1955-56 was a strong la nina (in fact, it ended a near 40-year drought of strong la ninas, dating back to the very strong la nina of 1916-17). We didn't have a clear ENSO state this year (the WPAC was in a la nina state and the EPAC was in an el nino state).

Since 1955-56, we've had 7 strong la nina events (including the 1998-2000 double), and haven't gone more than 18 years without a strong la nina. We are currently in the longest strong la nina drought since 1955-56 and 1973-74, and that would be exceed if we don't get a strong la nina by 2028-29.

[GaWx]

 Today’s release of the weekly Nino 3.4 SSTa, which is for the last week (centered on March 12th), came in at +0.3C. Over the prior 6 weeks from the week centered on Jan 29th (when it was -0.8C), it has warmed a whopping 1.1C. This is by far the strongest warming for that particular 6 week period on record (records back to 1982). The next fastest warming is only half that (~+0.55C) set in both 2023 and 2011!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

[PhiEaglesfan712]

@GaWxAre we ever going to unpin the 2023-24 el nino topic, and pin this one?

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

@GaWxAre we ever going to unpin the 2023-24 el nino topic, and pin this one?

 I vote with you to pin this one and absolutely agree with you to unpin 2023-4. But I also vote to leave 2024-5 pinned at least through April to discuss the lingering effects of the now very weak/warm stratosphere and other things regarding the latter part of the current heating season.

@ORH_wxman

@jburns

[so_whats_happening]

On 3/15/2025 at 12:22 PM, LibertyBell said:

The storm tracks were radically different from that season though.

 

Again you can not expect every single season to mimic exactly how a previous season went but there were some really strong similarities to how this season progressed like it did back in 2013/14. The huge drop in the -PDO, rather consistent -EPO pattern, the arctic air intrusions that led to impactful snow in the deep south, +QBO, and high solar just to name a few. I don't remember anyone predicting record snowfall and cold like we saw that year but a very similar setup still occurred, unfortunately I think we are in quite the drought situation in the east and have been for the last year and half.

On 3/15/2025 at 2:19 PM, michsnowfreak said:

It's wild to even think there were similarities between the winter of 2013-14 & 2024-25. I understand it's never a 1:1 comparison but the two were not even close. The winter of 2013-14 was the most severe winter on record for Detroit, the snowiest (94.9"), by far the longest lasting deep snowpack, and the 8th coldest DJF and 4th coldest Nov-Mar on record. Not only was the cold constant from Nov-Apr, but it was EXTREMELY active, with a constant parade of storms. Meanwhile 2024-25 was mild Nov-Dec, cold Jan-Feb, and mild Mar. Snowfall sits at a below avg 26.9" to date and though we did have a snowcovered Jan/Feb, due to more bare than avg in Dec, we are sitting near normal for snowcover days to date. 

Again, I understand the comparisons will never be 1:1, but if similar patterns can yield such wildly different outcomes, then no matter how slam dunk a pattern may be, anyone in a northern climate should take everything with an extreme grain of salt. Ie: a crap winter won't necessarily yield a crap one this time, nor will a good winter pattern yield a good one.

We even discussed this before snowfall/precipitation in general varies way too wildly from season to season to even have consistencies to predict the reality of what could occur, this season behaved very much like 2013/14 in a warmer base state even from the already warm base state we saw back then. Sucks snowfall did not work out but many areas in the mid atlantic and even SNE have been in drought like conditions for quite some time there is something bigger not allowing us to flip to a wetter pattern. Maybe the PDO was in such an intense negative state that it sent a shock into the system that we have yet to snap out of? Would love to know myself.

I think the bolded we need to realize that not every season will follow a path of snow and cold if we have a -EPO/ west ridge/ -NAO it leads us to a better chance of a snowier colder pattern but never guarantees one and I believe this is just another example in that book.

On 3/15/2025 at 3:28 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October was a completely different pattern in the Pacific.. like opposite. I think some of November was too. I understand that this was the coldest nationwide since 13-14/14-15, but some of our cold this Winter was also -NAO driven, 13-14 had mostly +NAO for the Winter.. and now March is pretty much opposite again. The similarity was in the EPO Dec-Feb, as this was the first solidly neg EPO Winter since 13-14/14-15. 

I believe Raindance and even myself have mentioned it but we seemed off by a month this whole season especially going from end of summer into early winter. Comparing Oct 2024 to Sept 2013 yields very similar conditions occurred with moving a month forward until about we got to about January that is when things started to diverge between the two seasons. I think with us not totally flipping the PDO state hurt the continuation of us following a 2013/14 style season but going from a -3.8 PDO to about a -1 to -1.4 range still yielded a fairly similar drop which started to setup the pattern we just couldn't keep it going so we yielded a different setup given a fairly similar background change. Our cold tends to come from a -EPO not a -NAO pattern, a -NAO pattern can help lock in a pattern but we can have a -NAO and not actually get cold to infiltrate the region.

Again not 1:1 and no season will ever fit perfectly (I would be impressed if something like that actually occurs) big reason why many folks use multiple seasons to help bring in different elements that could occur.  I also would not expect us to go into a 14/15 style season going forward.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/17/2025 at 8:52 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The difference is that 1955-56 was a strong la nina (in fact, it ended a near 40-year drought of strong la ninas, dating back to the very strong la nina of 1916-17). We didn't have a clear ENSO state this year (the WPAC was in a la nina state and the EPAC was in an el nino state).

Since 1955-56, we've had 7 strong la nina events (including the 1998-2000 double), and haven't gone more than 18 years without a strong la nina. We are currently in the longest strong la nina drought since 1955-56 and 1973-74, and that would be exceed if we don't get a strong la nina by 2028-29.

I noticed strong la ninas used to be much colder and snowier back then, 1916-17 and 1955-56 were much colder and snowier than 1973-74 or 1988-89, although we had colder snowier strong la ninas again with 2010-11 and 2017-18.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I noticed strong la ninas used to be much colder and snowier back then, 1916-17 and 1955-56 were much colder and snowier than 1973-74 or 1988-89, although we had colder snowier strong la ninas again with 2010-11 and 2017-18.

 

2017-2018 def was not strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Again you can not expect every single season to mimic exactly how a previous season went but there were some really strong similarities to how this season progressed like it did back in 2013/14. The huge drop in the -PDO, rather consistent -EPO pattern, the arctic air intrusions that led to impactful snow in the deep south, +QBO, and high solar just to name a few. I don't remember anyone predicting record snowfall and cold like we saw that year but a very similar setup still occurred, unfortunately I think we are in quite the drought situation in the east and have been for the last year and half.

We even discussed this before snowfall/precipitation in general varies way too wildly from season to season to even have consistencies to predict the reality of what could occur, this season behaved very much like 2013/14 in a warmer base state even from the already warm base state we saw back then. Sucks snowfall did not work out but many areas in the mid atlantic and even SNE have been in drought like conditions for quite some time there is something bigger not allowing us to flip to a wetter pattern. Maybe the PDO was in such an intense negative state that it sent a shock into the system that we have yet to snap out of? Would love to know myself.

I think the bolded we need to realize that not every season will follow a path of snow and cold if we have a -EPO/ west ridge/ -NAO it leads us to a better chance of a snowier colder pattern but never guarantees one and I believe this is just another example in that book.

I believe Raindance and even myself have mentioned it but we seemed off by a month this whole season especially going from end of summer into early winter. Comparing Oct 2024 to Sept 2013 yields very similar conditions occurred with moving a month forward until about we got to about January that is when things started to diverge between the two seasons. I think with us not totally flipping the PDO state hurt the continuation of us following a 2013/14 style season but going from a -3.8 PDO to about a -1 to -1.4 range still yielded a fairly similar drop which started to setup the pattern we just couldn't keep it going so we yielded a different setup given a fairly similar background change. Our cold tends to come from a -EPO not a -NAO pattern, a -NAO pattern can help lock in a pattern but we can have a -NAO and not actually get cold to infiltrate the region.

Again not 1:1 and no season will ever fit perfectly (I would be impressed if something like that actually occurs) big reason why many folks use multiple seasons to help bring in different elements that could occur.  I also would not expect us to go into a 14/15 style season going forward.

I didn't intend to imply that I thought it would be that extreme because it certainly will not, however, I can definitely envision a favorable Pacific and relatively unfavorable atlantic next season....along with a meager warm ENSO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand that this will not be a la Nina per CPC regulations, but all things considered, it was definitely a modest cool ENSO paradigm...and a more significant one than many were expecting as of late last autumn, to boot.

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't intend to imply that I thought it would be that extreme because it certainly will not, however, I can definitely envision a favorable Pacific and relatively unfavorable atlantic next season....along with a meager warm ENSO.

a lesser version of 1993-94, Ray?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

a lesser version of 1993-94, Ray?

The only reason I mentioned 2014-2015 is because it was also high solar, featured a flip from cool ENSO to warm ENSO and PAC cold phase to warm phase. This is why I think the Pacific may be growing more favorable moving forward, however, the solar winds usually kick up post solar max, which tends to disperse electromagnetic particles and promote +AO/NAO.

I am in no way expecting record snows in the northeast, but I do feel it will be snowier.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only reason I mentioned 2014-2015 is because it was also high solar, featured a flip from cool ENSO to warm ENSO and PAC cold phase to warm phase. This is why I think the Pacific may be growing more favorable moving forward, however, the solar winds usually kick up post solar max, which tends to disperse electromagnetic particles and promote +AO/NAO.

I am in no way expecting record snows in the northeast, but I do feel it will be snowier.

yes less snowy and less cold than those historic seasons, because we're in a drier cycle now and less snowy too.

But probably better than any other season in this miserable decade.